Japanese snow season 2016-17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2016.

  1.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Ok, it's time to start the season proper thread.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    LINKS
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    JMA historical snow data(to compare current and average snow depth for a particular day)
    http://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/

    Long range models pressure & thickness:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...pcpn&runtime=2016112218&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=228

    http://wxmaps.org/pix/NHanim.html

    Long range, various:
    Freezing levels
    TropicalTB
    WindyTy
    WeatherOnline


    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=sfcmslp&rh=2016112412&fh=0&r=as&dpdt=

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~hakim/tropo/tropo.html


    JMA historical data:
    http://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/
    Translation:
    https://translate.google.com.au/tra...ww.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/&prev=search

    Jetstream info:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=wpac&pkg=uv200

    GFS runs for 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z. ("z" is Greenwich mean time, London)
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2016
    :thumbs: Olgreg and Dumph like this.
  2.  
    Nozawaman

    Nozawaman Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    This morning ...

    [​IMG]
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry, Brad Filmer, TDS and 3 others like this.
  3.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

  4.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    think you will be leaving the car in the village next week
     
  5.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    [​IMG]

    So for today and tomorrow....

    There's a bit of jetstream cloud (which is generally disruptive), but look at the lake effect snow streaming across the Sea of Japan!!!!

    Takada (on the coast in Niigata @ 13m): 6.8 at 1am, decreasing to 4.5 degrees at 7am. 2-5mm of precip per hour.
    Yuzawa (in Niigata @ 340m): 4.1 at 1am, decreasing to 2.9 degrees at 7am. 0.5-4.5mm of precip per hour.
    Hakuba: 3 degrees, decreasing to 1.2 degrees, no precip.
    Nozawa Onsen: 3.1, decreasing to 2.0 degrees. trace precip.
    Kutchan (near Niseko): -4.4, decreasing to -7.5. 6cm snow since 1am. That's cold for November in Kutchan. Average max temperatures for this time of year around +7, min just below freezing.

    Tokyo: 13.6, decreasing to 11.6 degrees.
    Yokohama: 14.6, decreasing to 12.2 degrees.
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  6.  
    ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    Love that satellite photo.... the jetstream cloud you are talking about... is that the band streaking across honshu from the south-west to the north east? or is it the thick clouds south of honshu (covering some of kyushu)?
     
  7.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Yes, there's one jet off to the south and one up near Hokkaido.

    We have to remember this is a southern low trough scenario, so there will likely to be more snow on the south side the mountains.
     
    :thumbs: TDS likes this.
  8.  
    TDS

    TDS Active Member

    Here we go boys and gals.
     
  9.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Still 150cm at Nozawa today?? ;)
     
    :thumbs: TDS likes this.
  10.  
    TDS

    TDS Active Member

    I've upped it to 170cm ;)
     
    :thumbs: blowfin likes this.
  11.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Latest satellite:
    [​IMG]

    It's the cloud streaming to the south of Japan, that will bring the precip. You can see most of the lake effect snow is confined to northern Honshu & Hokkaido for now. (not near Niigata & Nagano)
     
  12.  
    PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Next Monday, Tuesday and then Friday, Saturday looking mighty fine. At this stage.
    Edit - bit of a downgrade this morning.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2016
  13.  
    ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

  14.  
    Nozawaman

    Nozawaman Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    View from my bedroom window , not much , but looks nice though.

    [​IMG]
     
    :thumbs: TDS likes this.
  15.  
    TDS

    TDS Active Member

    Better then nothing, mind you looks like this will be washed away this weekend.
     
  16.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Ok so it's 2.3 degrees at 7am in Yokohama, and it a snow sleet mix!!!!! :D

    It's 1.6 degrees in Tokyo, and as I've seen it before, it WILL be snowing there.... first time since 1962 in November!!!! LOL
     
    :thumbs: Froff Life likes this.
  17.  
    ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    and its only November .... :out:
     
    :thumbs: smackies likes this.
  18.  
    ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

  19.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    In Yokohama, the sleet has stopped and it's fluffy flakes of snow!!! 1.7 degrees. Photos to follow....

    In Tokyo, there's no accumulation on the ground according to JMA (ground may be too warm, but I reckon it's been snowing there for 4 hours. 1.0 degrees.


    No settled snow in Yuzawa yet though.
     
  20.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    It's absolutely bucketing down now in Yokohama!!!! :D
     
  21.  
    Chondro

    Chondro Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Pics @Sandy Pics! You're making me froth!
     
  22.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold


    [​IMG]

    My backyard in Yokohama!!!!! :D
    A few flakes are starting to settle in the bushes!
     
  23.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    The breeze has picked up a bit and it's colder, the flakes are smaller, but it looks like it's easing off a bit.
     
  24.  
    TDS

    TDS Active Member

    I envy you Sandy
     
  25.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    But I can't ski in the backyard!!! ;)
     
  26.  
    Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Snowing in Kuroiso:
    [​IMG]
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  27.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    Would prefer sustained NW
     
  28.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    Can we please get one post that dumps all the relevant links people are using? I have lost all mine :( Maybe Sandy can coordinate?
     
    :thumbs: Nozawaman likes this.
  29.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    i like tropical tidbits for gfs patterns
     
  30.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

  31.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    Thanks.

    Is it possible for the first post to be updated with a list?
     
  32.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Yep, I can consolidate when we get more responses.
     
  33.  
    Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Active Member

  34.  
    Hyst

    Hyst Active Member Season Pass Gold

    Soon you can ski down to the sea!:whistle:
     
  35.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

  36.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    The ground is too warm for any snow to settle on the Pacific side of central Japan.
     
  37.  
    Hyst

    Hyst Active Member Season Pass Gold

    I was not serious.:whistle:
     
  38.  
    DeskRider

    DeskRider Dedicated Member

    Some great pictures getting around on social media, this was my favorite - Daibutsu in Kamakura

    [​IMG]
     
  39.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Yes,. I know!!! ;)
     
  40.  
    ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    stay on topic :D
     
  41.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Interesting to see the snow settle there.... I'm only 15km from there, but was not settling at my place.

    However, it was snowing just as heavily as that, at my place in Yokohama.
     
  42.  
    seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

    I observe heavy snow in hokkaido
     
  43.  
    Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Active Member

    I'm not surprised for this time of year but this triple threat is ruining all the good vibes :mad:

    [​IMG]
     
  44.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    On thing about the GFS is that they seem to have two different running models: 00z & 12z, and the 06z & 18z
    So if you look at the next 6 hours, you might see an upgrade or a down grade, but what you are seeing is the two different model runs.

    So for example the 00z Nov 25 2016, for 00z Dec 09:

    [​IMG]

    06z Nov 25 2016, for 18z Dec 09:
    [​IMG]


    00z Nov 25 2016, for 12z Dec 09:

    [​IMG]

    06z Nov 25 2016, for 06z Dec 10:

    [​IMG]

    These are SUPPOSED to be sequential, 6 hour increments.
    The 2nd & 4th have a deep low east of Hokkaido, while the 1st & 3rd don't.

    So the 1st & 3rd are one model run, while the 2nd & 4th are a DIFFERENT run. THIS is why it looks like there are 6 hourly "upgrades: and "downgrades". Each run uses as the input, the output from the previous 12 hours. So you have two runs which are different.
    When the two models converge (usually about 5 days out), you have a reasonably good forecast. You tend to find that when the two runs are VERY SIMILAR a long way out, then it's more likely to be right.
     
  45.  
    Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Active Member

    Good tip Sandy.
    I wondered why there was so much variance in these longer run models.
    Seemingly it would change from release to release.
    Ta
     
  46.  
    Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

    What's the feeling on this coming week for Honshu? Looks promising on the 28th (mon) and then again around the 1st (thurs).

    Longer range there is an interesting deep low moving up from Taiwan that may help draw some nice cool air over much of Japan if it tracks far enough east of the country.
     
  47.  
    ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    Deep lows or any lows are not really Honshu's friend when it comes to snow...
    How's the high pressure over Siberia looking?
     
  48.  
    Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

    Agreed. High pressure isn't anything special just yet - 1030-1040 typ.
     
  49.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    A much bigger high (1050) is due on 8th December according to some long term models.
     
  50.  
    Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Season Pass Gold

    It's not just the mere presence of high pressure over Mongolia that give us snow, if there are a continuing series of low pressure troughs pushing through from Korea or southern China.