Is 2017 Shaping Up To Be A Lean Season?

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Old School Mike, Jun 15, 2017.

  1. Old School Mike

    Old School Mike Just Registered

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    Not sure if this is sensationalist but I just heard on the ABC weather report it has been the driest start to June in inland NSW for more than 100 years! Let's hope July and beyond is better.
     
    #51 Old School Mike, Jun 16, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2017
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    That's funny, last I checked the 'start' of month is not a measurable timeframe and nor is NSW, as a state. ABC has a noticeably spiraling credibility record, particularly in it's headlines.
     
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  3. Old School Mike

    Old School Mike Just Registered

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    Just checked BOM . They are predicting a drier than average winter. Hope they are also not credible and it dumps down.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    When it comes to weather & climate; what eventuates, and what we 'hope' is often two very different things, Mike. With all respect, it can be mind games forever if you're the eternal-optimist.
     
  5. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    I'm calling against the naysayers. Above average... I turned my lights off for Earth Hour this year and made a difference.
     
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  6. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    We all have our biases and we're fantastic at projecting them when it comes to season predictions.
     
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  7. Old School Mike

    Old School Mike Just Registered

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    I'm certainly not trying to make any predictions or be pessimistic. Just wanted to get other people's opinions. There can still be some good skiing to be had in a lean season.
     
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  8. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    Yeah. They've said that every winter for the last 10 years. I take their long-term forecasts with a big pinch of salt.
     
  9. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    and they have been right year after year - with the occasional wet bursts to confuse people to the actual ongoing conditions.
     
  10. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Blocking pattern is blocking.
    Simples.
     
  11. Kenziepettit

    Kenziepettit Active Member
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    I think the marketing teams have got into people's head somewhat
    I am personally stoked to have gotten two days in riding on a significant amount of snow in the first half of june! A month ago I was considering my first day to be late June if I was lucky.
    The snow will come and everyone will forget their early season worrying until next June.
     
  12. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Not sure if one of these long termers has ever got it correct , I suppose there is 50% chance. Its will snow and well.
     
  13. LevRMark

    LevRMark Active Member

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    In previous lean years I've noticed that although the cover might come late and be lower in depth it tends to remain through the season, possibly because there are fewer warm events (with rain) and more clear skied nights. A small positive side of lean years?
     
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  14. LMB

    LMB Part of the Furniture
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    The question for me now is 'will the ski resorts that invest in the above zero slushie machine cope better with lean seasons than those that don't?' Will building their own early base take advantage of every skerrick of natural snow? Or is it just a gimmicky marketing tool?
     
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  15. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    They'll definitely cope better. Lake Mountain has survived for the last decade or so on smaller machines, and desperately needs the big one like Buller.
     
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  16. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Some of the best skiing , during operational season , comes with leaner years. More bumps and contours along with the odd rock/grass obstacles I guess. I also find the snow isn't as icy for some reason , maybe that's just me trying to be positive. Its the after season that is more affected by leaner years
     
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  17. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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    Skiable snow in Australia in June is basically a complete bonus.

    If we shifted the "start" of winter to June 22nd, (ie, in line with most other [snow] countries), people wouldn't panic about there being no snow in June. If the first day of winter was June 22, then nobody would be expecting decent coverage for at least another two or three weeks after that. Which is usually the way of it anyway.

    But the dollars behind the horse racing industry prevent shifting the start date of winter those vital three weeks, as it would interfere with the spring racing carnival.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    You might as well have cut/pasted from a little over a week ago. We got your message back then, I reckon.
    Your point of 'shifting winter dates' is up there with Global Warming discussions IMO.
     
    #68 POW_hungry, Jun 18, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2017
  19. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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    ^^It was in response to a new thread, so seemed valid.
     
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  20. Old School Mike

    Old School Mike Just Registered

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    I appreciate all responses so thanks. PS: I think skiing is way better than horse racing.
     
  21. Old School Mike

    Old School Mike Just Registered

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    I'll have to get up early to take advantage of first slushies instead of freshies or corduroy.
     
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  22. LMB

    LMB Part of the Furniture
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    Except if it drops below zero overnight, then a latish start might be in order unless you've got razor sharp edges!
     
  23. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
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    Yeah I have to agree, it's not a whole lot different this week, to the last couple of years? June....
     
  24. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Starting to see a maybe possible good thing for early July , somewhere 3rd to 6th. Along way off I know and I will leave it to the better credentialed people but........................it always pays to be positive. Maybe it will become a thing , maybe not.
     
  25. cin

    cin Part of the Furniture
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    Better to get the dry, cold nights, blocking high right now than later into July
    be patient, it will move along sooner or later and let the cold fronts move through right when we want them in the coldest part of the year to maximise the chances of it falling as white stuff not liquid
     
  26. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Intriguing period on EC @Kelpieboy between the 3rd and the 7th (and beyond). But who knows what will happen at this range TBH.
    1st: EPS Control
    2nd: EC Monthly Control
     
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  27. Ultra

    Ultra Dedicated Member
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    nope, i didnt buy a season pass for the first time in a decade...

    so it will be massive! 3 Mtr season!
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    We want that baby at bottom left.
     
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  29. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    No they haven't.

    Stop spreading lies and Fake News.

    [mod edit] remember last year's winter outlook which (correctly) predicted high chances of a wet winter?
     
    #79 Rush, Jun 19, 2017
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 19, 2017
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  30. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    I stopped checking their long-term forecasts some years back. So, I can't remember something I never read.
     
    #80 teckel, Jun 19, 2017
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 19, 2017
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  31. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Ah, so you stopped checking their long term forecasts years ago, you admit no longer read them, yet you still made the following statement :
    So how does that work?
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Settle down everyone!
    Keep it to the facts and don't play the man/woman. Or the thread gets locked down
     
  33. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Good old confirmational biases. Human brains always look for patterns and will try sometimes and stamp on a pattern as soon as it can, even prematurely.
     
  34. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    That's the thing I saw last night Jellybeans and Kletterer. Looks decent to me at this stage but a heck of a long way away so I will leave it up to those with a better understanding of the science to do the pontificating on it. I am a mere sheepherder with no great understanding of the science involved in weather , not on the level others in here have anyway. I will say this though , at this point it is the first thing I have seen this year that has me interested,
     
  35. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim Well-Known Member

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    "Shepherd" is the word you were looking for, I think.
     
  36. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    That term may be a little too technical for the city folk who read this ;);) so I went for the easier to understand term. Lets not bring Grazier into it either , that is way too technical.
     
  37. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    BoM cancel El Nino 'watch', neutral conditions expected for rest of 2017.
     
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  38. Ian

    Ian Active Member
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    My girls tease me about getting excited in early June. "Not long now girls!"
    We skied Thredbo just after Snowmageddon 2015(?)
    I kept poking them saying 'it's the last weekend in June!'

    Go telemark and you'll find snow if you go looking.
     
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  39. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Hopefully the permanent High will move Eastward around the 5th
     
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  41. K10

    K10 Active Member

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    As usual just in time for school holidays
     
  42. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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  43. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Do we dare mention snapping the 1982 record this year :whistle:
     
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  44. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    that was actually 2014
     
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  45. Xplora

    Xplora Active Member

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    Rain events last year meant the base in the BC kept getting washed away (not relating to man made snow). Would it be better to have a lean and cold year than a wet warm with rain events preceding the cold air and snow? Legitimate question not a comment.
     
  46. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    The depth right now is not the ultimate indicator of how things will eventually turn out...... ;)

    [​IMG]
     
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  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Yes, and no. You could have a year like 2005 where if the temperature was 1-2C cooler we would have had the best snow season of all time, but it wasnt, and every 30-50cm base kept on being washed away by the next system. Or you could have 2006, where you could have as much snowmaking as you wanted, all season long, but min. natural snowfall. AUS seasons are so fickle that I dont think it's that simple to say cold+dry or wet+warm. I like my seasons to be pretty much how 2017 is looking at the moment, get all the calm days and high pressure/fogs/frosts out of the way in May/June, shift the highs and ITCZ northwards at the end of June, get the fronts coming through in July and August and then spring skiing from late August.
     
  48. Xplora

    Xplora Active Member

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    Seems logical. The cold nights also help with ground temperature which then relates to less melt I would think. From my way of thinking, less melt is preferable than huge dumps which are gone soon after. Thanks.
     
  49. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    However, cold nights don't help much if there's no snow on the ground, and the sun heats it during the day.

    The ideal scenario early season(i.e.June), is to have a thin layer of snow, topped up regularly, just enough to cover the ground. Then clear nights to help cool it.

    Snow reflects the sun away, cools the ground, and in this case, is thin enough not to insulate the ground too much.... a thick layer of snow early season insulates the ground, trapping heat.
     
  50. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Yeah, how many times have we seen seasons like this? Quite a few if I recall. 1996 rings a bell and turned out to be quite a whopper by late August.

    Remember that we are currently tracking quite similar to 1984 in terms of 'general weather trends similar to that year' and that it dumped hard quite late that year at the end of August.

    Also 2010 is another that rings a bell and came quite late as well