Cyclone season 2016/17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.

  1.  
    Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member Season Pass Silver

    The WA system is starting to look very tasty, rainfall wise, for the later half of next week.

    A "Nullarbor Cutter", maybe not, but possibly not too far off.
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  2.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    GFS starting to like gulf action.

    [​IMG]
     
  3.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    We're seeing unanimous upgrades for the potential NW Cyclone, due at the end of the week.
    And with good reason as SST Anomalies now showing the NW in positive territory ( a big shift form 2 weeks ago).
    [​IMG]
    BOM's SST suggesting cyclone to be support well south of Exmouth.
    [​IMG]
    By the way, that eddie off the NSW coast tops out at 26C!?:eek: And randomly 27C waters off North NSW, so technically it could support cyclone growth if it was to meander down the coast.
    N.B. GFS suggests exactly that with a cyclone progged late in the 18Z run, originating in the Coral Sea.
     
  4.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    GFS liking the Coral Sea depression, with it making landfall somewhere between Townsville & Mackay. Will be interesting if EC buys into it also.
    Depression over the NW bottoming out at 978hPa in the 00Z GFS run.
    [​IMG]
     
  5.  
    Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member Season Pass Silver

    I don't want to jinx this one, but later in the week is starting to firm as looking moderately interesting for area south of Exmouth.
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  6.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    EC strike probability giving >90% chance of storm forming off WA this week, with 50% chance of a subsequent storm in the Gulf of Carpenteria and in the South Pacific near New Caledonia/Fiji.
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  7.  
    Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member Season Pass Silver

    By the Powers of Greyskull, lay some precip on me Fatboy!!

    That is real pretty.

    [​IMG]

    Swells even overtopping the coast.

    [​IMG]

    Almost fantasy land kind of scenario, especially the track to this point, but if it comes off, I'll take it. Will totally transform the back end of summer in the parched South West.

    [​IMG]
     
    :thumbs: nfip and Majikthise like this.
  8.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Both EC and GFS have the low tracking out west, into the Indian Ocean, rather than curving back to the WA SW coast.
    Both models also have potential further weak cyclones along the WA NW coast at 220 hours+.
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  9.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Steering winds for the system after it has been through Exmouth on Friday AM. If that front arrives any sooner it's re-curve could be back on the cards.
    [​IMG]
     
  10.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Interestingly, BOM suggests "Low" likelihood of cyclone Wed-Friday.
    But still looks like it'll make a mess of the Exmouth Gulf & Western Pilbara region!

    Wheatbelt and Goldfields to do really well.
     
  11.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    NW tropical depression now logged as 93S Invest

    [​IMG]
     
    :thumbs: Claude Cat likes this.
  12.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    Was another clear cyclone that went unnamed,ridiculous any other basin 45/50kt TC

    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]

    Best chance to get a named storm @144hrs,surely the agency will name a 64kt system, but maybe
    not with their system.
     
    :thumbs: Jellybeans1000 and POW_hungry like this.
  13.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    No-go for launch according to BOM.
     
  14.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Yep, a fizzer.

     
  15.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    IDW20032
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    Western Australia Regional Office

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
    for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING SURF
    For people in the
    Pilbara and parts of the
    Gascoyne districts.


    Issued at 3:43 pm Wednesday, 8 February 2017.

    Weather situation:

    At 3pm AWST, the tropical low lies over land 70km southeast of Port Hedland. The low is expected to move towards the southwest through the inland Pilbara overnight Wednesday and during Thursday. Late Thursday or early Friday the low will likely move offshore in the vicinity of Carnarvon or Shark Bay.

    Windy conditions are expected throughout the Pilbara and northern Gascoyne. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 kilometres per hour which could result in DAMAGE TO HOMES AND PROPERTY are possible east of Port Hedland Wednesday afternoon and evening. As the low tracks towards the southwest over land the winds should ease. As the low moves offshore late Thursday a period of DAMAGING WINDS is possible between Cape Cuvier and Denham, including Carnarvon.

    Areas of HEAVY RAINFALL that may lead to FLASH FLOODING are possible over the Pilbara and far northwest Gascoyne as the low moves across the district. Isolated daily rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible in coastal parts of the Pilbara.

    There are Flood Watches and Warnings current for the Kimberley and Pilbara districts. For further details please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

    Currently the tides along the west coast are lower than normal. As the low moves offshore overnight Thursday or early Friday tides may rapidly rise to be higher than normal and surf conditions could be dangerous.

    Locations which may be affected include Carnarvon, Coral Bay, Denham, Exmouth, Karratha, Onslow, Paraburdoo, Port Hedland, Tom Price, Nullagine, Overlander Roadhouse, Whim Creek and Wooramel Roadhouse.

    This overall weather pattern is unusual for this time of year and severe weather may occur in some parts of the warning area.





    Between 3:00pm and 3:40pm Karratha recorded 39.8mm of rainfall.


    [​IMG]

    A tropical low with 100kms gusts is a aussie cat1,it was a missed system. Rowley Shoals recorded gusts to 105kms earlier today when the cyclone moved over the area. http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weatherstation.cgi?station=94207
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  16.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    Nasa
    SO. INDIAN OCEAN - GPM Satellite Reveals System 93S' Powerful Storms In The Timor Sea
    The Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM satellite flew over a stormy area of the Timor Sea northwest of Australia on February 7, 2017 at 1926 UTC (2:26 p.m. EST). GPM found that this stormy area, designated as System 93S, contained some extremely powerful convective storms. GPM's Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) found that the most intense storms were dropping rain at a rate of over 268 mm (10.6 inches) per hour.
    Data received by GPM's Radar (DPR Ku Band) also revealed the 3-D anatomy of precipitation hidden inside these unusually powerful storms. GPM's radar found that these storm tops were pushing to altitudes greater than 19 km (11.8 miles). GPM radar data also showed that some intense precipitation in these storms was returning radar reflectivity values of over 88 dBZ to the satellite.

    [​IMG]


    Was impressive for a....... (fizzer)wind data over the landfall area supported cyclonic c1 as well.
     
  17.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Some fascinating reccie data. Cheers for sharing.
     
  18.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    Re-run deepens on approach, will it get a name. Thread title needs updating 17.
     
    :thumbs: Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  19.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    931 hPa cyclone of the North West Shelf on GFS. GEM is very doubtful.
     
  20.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    [​IMG]
    Its warm enough out there in the IO for it, first decent looking modelled cyclone in shem this season.
    Cpac has a modoki setup look about it atm.
     
    :thumbs: Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  21.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    BoM think the low currently in the Gulf of Carpentaria will intensify into a Cat 2 storm.
     
  22.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    small centre appears to just have its toes still in the drink.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    If the system does loop back into the GOC and mb goes this low,
    and its still not a named storm then i suggest you guys seek new
    employment not @Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre.
     
  23.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Punter questions / obs.
    It's not shown on these , granted different model.
     
  24.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    Radar shot is just for structure you can estimate the strength on dbz's

    GFS is a weaker storm.
    [​IMG]

    FORECAST DATA
    Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
    [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
    +06: 17/1200: 16.7S 138.0E: 025 [045]: 025 [045]: 1002
    +12: 17/1800: 16.6S 137.6E: 040 [075]: 025 [045]: 1003
    +18: 18/0000: 16.2S 137.3E: 050 [095]: 030 [055]: 1000
    +24: 18/0600: 16.0S 137.4E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 1000
    +36: 18/1800: 15.5S 137.8E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 997
    +48: 19/0600: 15.3S 138.8E: 095 [175]: 050 [095]: 989
    +60: 19/1800: 15.3S 139.6E: 120 [220]: 060 [110]: 981
    +72: 20/0600: 15.7S 140.0E: 150 [280]: 055 [100]: 985
    +96: 21/0600: 16.4S 139.9E: 180 [335]: 040 [075]: 995
    +120: 22/0600: 17.3S 139.2E: 200 [370]: 035 [065]: 997

    Bom's forecast suggests go with the EC
     
  25.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

  26.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2017/adt/text/19U-list.txt

    The storm with the radar and sat obs and M Island obs could have been
    already named when it was in the goc. If it don't loop its another one bites
    the dust.
     
    :thumbs: Claude Cat and POW_hungry like this.
  27.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Could be another fizzer.
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  28.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  29.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

  30.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Number 2 of the season.
     
  31.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    REMARKS:
    200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 137.1E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ALFRED), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM EAST-
    SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
    03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH WEAK FRAGMENTED
    BANDING TO THE EAST WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN EDGE OF SWATH 200029Z
    METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE
    FLARING CONVECTION OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS,
    INDICATING SOME SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR PRESENT OVER THE SYSTEM. THE
    INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS FROM CENTRE ISLAND WHERE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
    HAVE LAGGED BEHIND. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY
    FAVORABLE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
    PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND SSTS IN THE GULF
    OF CARPENTARIA ARE EXTREMELY WARM NEAR 31 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC
    ALFRED IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
    OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING
    TO THE EAST AND WILL STEER TC ALFRED SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
    NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO
    INTENSIFY FURTHER IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO 45 KNOTS BEFORE THE TROUGH
    MOVES THROUGH BRINGING HIGHER WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
    THE SYSTEM'S PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL ALSO HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
    OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND TAU 36 ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    EXTENSION WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ACCELERATING TC ALFRED TO THE
    WEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48.
    DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
    WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MOST SOLUTIONS
    SUGGEST A GENERAL SOUTHWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATED
    WESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM AND TIMING OF THE
    BUILDING SOUTHERN RIDGE THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY.
    OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
    201500Z AND 210300Z.//


    [​IMG]
     
  32.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    Last edited: Feb 20, 2017
  33.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    All over red rover. Back to a Tropical Low it goes...
     
  34.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Which could mean we are yet to see a cyclone make landfall this year.
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  35.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

  36.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    EC is modelling a major cane striking Madagascar,this scenario has all the
    hallmarks of a humanitarian disaster if it comes to fruition.

    95S.INVEST

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2017
    :thumbs: Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  37.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    96S.INVEST
    [​IMG]
    The topend disturbance has been tagged by JTWC
     
  38.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    There is nothing i can see atm to stop this low from developing as it drops down from indo.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    Relaxing shear values.



    [​IMG]
    Excellent divergence aloft.


    [​IMG]
    Moisture is no problem.These are the type plots i like to see for future cyclone development.
     
  39.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    [​IMG]
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  40.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Off topic but signs of a good moisture feed for the Tasman Low next week (NW Quadrant).
     
    :thumbs: nfip and jwx like this.
  41.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

    [​IMG]
     
  42.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member

  43.  
    jwx

    jwx Active Member


    Now a Tropical Storm GFS is going nuke with this one.
    sub 900mb.

    [​IMG]
     
  44.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    899? Somehow ...
     
  45.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Sweet baby jesus. It'd be like trying to breathe at 1000m altitude, being inside that thing.
     
    :thumbs: jwx likes this.
  46.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    BOM is saying category 2.
     
    :thumbs: jwx likes this.
  47.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    I think it would be stronger if it gets down to 955 hPa.
     
  48.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    That's just BOM guidance. And they haven't had a great cyclone record this season...
     
  49.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    It hasn't been much of a season to be fair!
     
    :thumbs: POW_hungry and Jellybeans1000 like this.
  50.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    And less than 3 days before event.... GEM is not converged with GFS at all.