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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.
Just to show there's lots of divergence in models out beyond 144 hours.
That's a low cat 3. Still early days yet though. Let's see what happens in later models.
I was meaning serious potential for a cyclone. It's only on GEM, we'll see how we go...
Fyi WA low is investigation area 90P
@Rabid K9 your chance of >20mm falls in Perth has significantly increased with both EC & GFS agreeing on the trough deepening over the SW ahead of the cold front on Sunday. Although, indirectly linked to the cyclone itself, it's a good scenario; minus the winds etc.
For Saturday through Tuesday EC says up to ~50mm for Northern suburbs of Perth, whilst GFS remains bullish @50-100mm for Northern subs.
Current Forecast track. Expected to reach Cat 2. Barrow Island & the rigs might be the only ones at risk here.
Yep, the tropical 'seeding' has been missing for some months now, a shame with such an active SAM.
But Perth can fester in it's urban heat island, I want the pricip down on the Capes, which looks like being missed by everything, despite it being near an ideal scenario. We had 75mm out of an event last January, pretty much rescued the land after the horrific dry winter and hot spring, this year we are faring much better with some local rivers still flowing nicely and the native veg looking healthy after the protracted cool, wet winter, but would still love a decent drop to settle the dust and soften things for early Feb.
Should give perth a nice drenching tomorrow/Sunday, and a very humid and cool (for Perth) few days next week 23-24C tops.
CMC giving up on the cyclone off QLD coast.
We should have our second TC for the season this arvo, albeit a weak one. BOM suggesting a CAT1 by late arvo as it enters cooler waters. It's already just about crossed the Rubicon as it's not got a chance West of Learmonth with sub 27C SSTs.
Himarwari showing some solid convergence at the moment. North East quadrant looking very active.
Illustrated (helps me get my crusty head around it all )
Looks like it doesn't get to be cyclone until tomorrow morning, and only briefly as it heads away from the coast.
I am beginning to think BOM are even hopeful at that forecast. It's no longer in growth territory. I will not be surprised if it rides off into the horizon as; forever a tropical depression.
Looks well clear of the coast. Beginning to move into those sub 27 SSTs.
Interesting low on GFS along the WA Northern Coast, in about 10 days.
Carbon copy of the system that didn't get a guernsey this week, very typical of GFS. I am skeptic at this point.
Not even a mention on EC or The Canuck.
GFS loves being the outlandish one sometimes.
As a stand alone system, yes, but as a contributor to the significant band of precip that is starting to move over the mid west and northern wheatbelt of WA, the effect should be substantial. Starting to remind me of 99/00 when we had nearly all the large river systems in WA flooding at the same time from the various weak tropical systems.
Closely watching the rain totals from this one and prepping for a midnight run south to explore some dry land rivers. Always fun riding the tropical run-off.
Lively band of storms moving through the eastern wheatbelt / south coast, right over the catchments I want. Always exciting to see dark red on the rain radar.
I feel a bogging to doors on the way to the river coming up.
Remember the seasonal forecast predicted very high probability of above-median rainfall for much of WA during February.
ok you got me ... explain pls
EC & CMC now some-what backing GFS @240 hrs out for possible TC on the Nor-West shelf again. Circa 10th Feb.
Starting to look interesting again for WA next week, again the convergence with the cold cored system from the south looking significant.
Avon River (feeds into the Swan) at a nice level following last weeks rain, nothing but days of the a'cursed summer wind for areas further south though.
GFS/EC both quite bullish on the front, I think we might see some downgrades perhaps, but you're not wrong - the wheat-belt looks like it'll get a good dousing.
Looking good up North too:
Weak one off WA and another in Gulf country?
GFS doesn't have it, and the WA low probably not getting strong enough to be a cyclone.
CMC is closer to EC, with a depression off FNQ, drifting into the gulf, but on the weak side.
GFS is going for a good one in the Coral though, albeit +300 odd hours out. But I will add, going solo at the moment.
CMC has action there too, but at 132 hours.
Things might be livening up in my neck of the woods in the next couple of weeks. We really need something to get the wet season kick started good and proper. Pity we need one to get the other.
Sure does. IMO Coral is ready to go and only a matter of time. CMC certainly doesn't align with GFS but I think they're singing from the same hymn sheet.
You got in just before me.
Too far south for Cairns or even Townsville to get any real benefit out of it unless it has a really good monsoonal flow with it.
EC showing high probabilities for TC activity b/w February 7 and 9 off NW shelf again.
The EC coupled model is very bullish on the WA system, less confident on the Gulf one.
So far out.
But on the otherhand, phase 5/6 of the MJO is likely to deliver to FNQ on the backend of the next fortnight. hence why I think we'll be on in the next few weeks, if at all.
MJO at work...
Those images need to be updated.
Got a contact I can call on?
I noticed that but it's all BOM provide on the MJO analysis. What's 8 years of records broken to 35 anyway.
I like the TL's, less selfish, don't spin up all the good stuff into a tightarse core, spread the moisture further, not as much damage. Once they get a name, it becomes all about 'them'!!
This thread title should be edited to "Cyclone Season 2016/2017 - What cyclone season?"
There's been literally no activity on the east side which is very unusual.....
Have a look.
Mind blown.I'd love to see the spread of ACE during the past 30 years.
It's quite scary living on a completely different planet to your parents.
I spy with my little cyclone eyes something potentially begining with C in the Coral Sea on - appearing on GFS 00Z long range. CMC & EC hinting something before then too.
Well it's about f$%^ing time!!!
How's the monster brewing south of NZ might deliver them a bit more summer snow and give us a nice long range S groundswell for the east coast
It is alone though. All of the models different to each other.