Cyclone season 2016/17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Just to show there's lots of divergence in models out beyond 144 hours.
     
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  2. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    That's a low cat 3. Still early days yet though. Let's see what happens in later models.
     
  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I was meaning serious potential for a cyclone. It's only on GEM, we'll see how we go...
     
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  4. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Fyi WA low is investigation area 90P
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    @Rabid K9 your chance of >20mm falls in Perth has significantly increased with both EC & GFS agreeing on the trough deepening over the SW ahead of the cold front on Sunday. Although, indirectly linked to the cyclone itself, it's a good scenario; minus the winds etc.
    For Saturday through Tuesday EC says up to ~50mm for Northern suburbs of Perth, whilst GFS remains bullish @50-100mm for Northern subs.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Current Forecast track. Expected to reach Cat 2. Barrow Island & the rigs might be the only ones at risk here.
    [​IMG]
     
  7. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Yep, the tropical 'seeding' has been missing for some months now, a shame with such an active SAM.

    But Perth can fester in it's urban heat island, I want the pricip down on the Capes, which looks like being missed by everything, despite it being near an ideal scenario. We had 75mm out of an event last January, pretty much rescued the land after the horrific dry winter and hot spring, this year we are faring much better with some local rivers still flowing nicely and the native veg looking healthy after the protracted cool, wet winter, but would still love a decent drop to settle the dust and soften things for early Feb.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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  9. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Should give perth a nice drenching tomorrow/Sunday, and a very humid and cool (for Perth) few days next week 23-24C tops.
     
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  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    CMC giving up on the cyclone off QLD coast.
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    We should have our second TC for the season this arvo, albeit a weak one. BOM suggesting a CAT1 by late arvo as it enters cooler waters. It's already just about crossed the Rubicon as it's not got a chance West of Learmonth with sub 27C SSTs.

    Himarwari showing some solid convergence at the moment. North East quadrant looking very active.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #361 POW_hungry, Jan 28, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2017
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  12. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Illustrated (helps me get my crusty head around it all ;) )

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looks like it doesn't get to be cyclone until tomorrow morning, and only briefly as it heads away from the coast.
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    I am beginning to think BOM are even hopeful at that forecast. It's no longer in growth territory. I will not be surprised if it rides off into the horizon as; forever a tropical depression.
     
    #364 POW_hungry, Jan 28, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2017
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  15. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Looks well clear of the coast. Beginning to move into those sub 27 SSTs.
     
  16. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Fizzed.
     
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  17. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Interesting low on GFS along the WA Northern Coast, in about 10 days.
     
  18. POW_hungry

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    Carbon copy of the system that didn't get a guernsey this week, very typical of GFS. I am skeptic at this point.
    Not even a mention on EC or The Canuck.
     
  19. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    GFS loves being the outlandish one sometimes.
     
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  20. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    As a stand alone system, yes, but as a contributor to the significant band of precip that is starting to move over the mid west and northern wheatbelt of WA, the effect should be substantial. Starting to remind me of 99/00 when we had nearly all the large river systems in WA flooding at the same time from the various weak tropical systems.

    Closely watching the rain totals from this one and prepping for a midnight run south to explore some dry land rivers. Always fun riding the tropical run-off.
     
  21. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Lively band of storms moving through the eastern wheatbelt / south coast, right over the catchments I want. Always exciting to see dark red on the rain radar.

    I feel a bogging to doors on the way to the river coming up.
     
  22. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Remember the seasonal forecast predicted very high probability of above-median rainfall for much of WA during February.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    :thumbs:
    FEB:
     
  24. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    ok you got me ... explain pls :D
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    EC & CMC now some-what backing GFS @240 hrs out for possible TC on the Nor-West shelf again. Circa 10th Feb.
     
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  26. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Starting to look interesting again for WA next week, again the convergence with the cold cored system from the south looking significant.

    Avon River (feeds into the Swan) at a nice level following last weeks rain, nothing but days of the a'cursed summer wind for areas further south though.
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    GFS/EC both quite bullish on the front, I think we might see some downgrades perhaps, but you're not wrong - the wheat-belt looks like it'll get a good dousing.
    Looking good up North too:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-...ning-changes-western-australia-desert/8230444
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Double header?
    Weak one off WA and another in Gulf country?

    [​IMG]
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS doesn't have it, and the WA low probably not getting strong enough to be a cyclone.
    CMC is closer to EC, with a depression off FNQ, drifting into the gulf, but on the weak side.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    GFS is going for a good one in the Coral though, albeit +300 odd hours out. But I will add, going solo at the moment.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    CMC has action there too, but at 132 hours.

    [​IMG]
     
  33. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Sure does. IMO Coral is ready to go and only a matter of time. CMC certainly doesn't align with GFS but I think they're singing from the same hymn sheet.
    [​IMG]
     
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  35. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    You got in just before me.
     
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  36. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    Too far south for Cairns or even Townsville to get any real benefit out of it unless it has a really good monsoonal flow with it.
     
  37. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    EC showing high probabilities for TC activity b/w February 7 and 9 off NW shelf again.
     
  38. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    The EC coupled model is very bullish on the WA system, less confident on the Gulf one.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    So far out.
    But on the otherhand, phase 5/6 of the MJO is likely to deliver to FNQ on the backend of the next fortnight. hence why I think we'll be on in the next few weeks, if at all.
    [​IMG]
     
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  40. POW_hungry

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    [​IMG]
    MJO at work...
     
  41. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Those images need to be updated.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Got a contact I can call on?;)
    I noticed that but it's all BOM provide on the MJO analysis. What's 8 years of records broken to 35 anyway.:whistle:
     
  43. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    I like the TL's, less selfish, don't spin up all the good stuff into a tightarse core, spread the moisture further, not as much damage. Once they get a name, it becomes all about 'them'!!
     
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  44. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    This thread title should be edited to "Cyclone Season 2016/2017 - What cyclone season?"

    There's been literally no activity on the east side which is very unusual.....
     
  45. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Have a look.

    Mind blown.I'd love to see the spread of ACE during the past 30 years.

    It's quite scary living on a completely different planet to your parents.
     
    #395 Rush, Feb 3, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2017
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  46. POW_hungry

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    Wow. Crickets....
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    I spy with my little cyclone eyes something potentially begining with C in the Coral Sea on - appearing on GFS 00Z long range. CMC & EC hinting something before then too.
    [​IMG]
     
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  48. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Well it's about f$%^ing time!!!

    How's the monster brewing south of NZ might deliver them a bit more summer snow and give us a nice long range S groundswell for the east coast
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  50. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    It is alone though. All of the models different to each other.
     
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