Cyclone season 2016/17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    There's no better than Phi,that was a spectacular image of the lift sw around the core.

    Bom says its not yet a a cyclone ? imo Putrid definition of the obivious.
     
    #251 jeffx@stormwise, Dec 21, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2016
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  2. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I know you guys are all over this.
    But from the BOM .....
    REMARKS:
    The system has been difficult to locate using EIR imagery. ASCAT winds have
    assisted in located the low level centre in the last few hours.Currently a large
    CB has blown up in the southwest quadrant and is covering the low level centre
    again. Using a shear pattern DTs of between 2.0 and 3.0 were obtained with the
    centre ranging from <1.25 from edge to <0.5 from edge. MET was 2.5 with a recent
    S trend. PAT was 2.5. FT/CI set to 2.5 with the system [tropical low] intensity
    set to 35 knots with gales in the southwest and northwest quadrants.

    Recent motion has been to the SW, it is likely to drift slowly north during
    Wednesday.

    CIMSS ADT had a CI of 3.1 at 1710 UTC. NESDIS ADT was 2.7 at 1700 UTC.

    Shear analyses overnight have shown strong shear from the ENE, there is upper
    divergence over southern quadrants only and wind fields show little outflow in
    northern quadrants. Shear is forecast to decrease on Wednesday, moreso on
    Thursday when conditions become more favourable for development. Development
    into a tropical cyclone has been delayed until 21 0000 UTC and may be delayed
    further if the shear doesn't decrease.

    The system is expected to be slow moving for the next 1 to 2 days and then move
    southeastwards towards the Pilbara/West Kimberley coast over the Christmas
    weekend. There is considerable model variation on the movement and intensity of
    the system, particularly in the longer term. The development of another tropical
    low near the north of the Kimberley and subsequent movement to the southwest
    will influence this system.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW27600.txt


     
  3. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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  4. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Complex looking period ahead - looks like inland Australia could get some good rain off that ex-TC

    [​IMG]
     
  5. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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  6. Darb

    Darb Old And Crusty
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    Anyone want to hazard me a guess as to what the TC cyclone is going to mean for wind speed and direction, around Geraldton , between December 26th and 31st?

    Reason I ask is it is usually a strong southerly / SW'er which is perfect for kite surfing, and several mates are planning to camp and kite for a week straight ... just curious of those TC / Lows coming down ( but very inland) are going to upset the apple cart and in what way?
     
  7. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Too far out to make a call yet.
    [​IMG]
    That's a lot of uncertainty
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    I suspect it won't be far off a southerly. That said, the prevailing surface trough over the last few weeks has turned up the heat with a good spell of heat from the ENE
     
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  9. Budgiesmuggler

    Budgiesmuggler Addicted Member
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    Earthquake in Darwin today
     
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  10. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Port Headland viz.
    edit looking East soz.
    [​IMG]
     
    #260 nfip, Dec 21, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2016
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  11. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    We have a tropical cyclone.
     
  12. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    Looks like the Philippines might have a bad Christmas..............:(
    Currently predicted track is pretty much direct hit to the Catanduanes................surf spot Majestics.
    Too early, but suggestions are it will keep tracking W/NW across Luzon.
    [​IMG]
     
    #262 Zimboo, Dec 22, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2016
  13. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Typhoon hitting the Philippines in Christmas?!?!

    I asked around. Apparently this isn't unheard of.
     
  14. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    Normally the Typhoon season in the Philippines is done by November. So, this is late but as you say not completely unheard of.
     
    #264 Zimboo, Dec 22, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2016
  15. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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  16. Darb

    Darb Old And Crusty
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    yeah cheers, miles away from the mid west which is good, was more just wondering if it will upset the normal "howling southerly" that we get around the mid west at this time of year.

    I kind of wish it would (i hate wind, mates love it, they kite)
     
  17. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Cyclone Tracy all over again! Just not Darwin this time
     
  18. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    Cyclone Tracy was a midget cyclone, do your research this cyclone has nothing in common with Tracy.
    Cyclones form almost every year over the topend and out west off WA over the xmas period.
     
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  19. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I wouldn't call a Cat4 cyclone a 'midget' personally
    They aren't alike, except they are both hitting on Christmas Day.
     
  20. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    It was a midget in structure obliviously you have no idea. Tracy was the 2nd small cyclone in history.
    Cat number has nothing to do cyclone size. This current cyclone is a median sized sheared moderate TS
    45kts
     
  21. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    The size is not what kills people, it's the strength of the cyclone. I know that Tracy was tiny but packed a punch.
     
  22. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    Jellybeans1000 said: I wouldn't call a Cat4 cyclone a 'midget' personally
    They aren't alike, except they are both hitting on Christmas Day.

    1 Everyone knows cyclone Tracy was a midget core cyclone.[ except you]
    2 What part did you not understand .its not cat number that defines size ie radius to the outermost closed isobar.
    3Tracy’s gale force winds extended 80km to 100km in diameter, making it a “midget cyclone” in meteorological terms.The eye tightened as it approached Darwin until it was just 6km in diameter.
    4Tracy happened at period when building codes were non existent in Darwin,thus the damage=EF4 torn.
    5 Stick to snow that is something you do sorta know.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    It appears to me via the 500-850mb steering models that Yvette is eventually 'pulled' onshore via the tropical depression that is barging through the Kimberly at the moment. @jeffx@stormwise something close to that effect?
    Looks like it could be a good result before it were to intensify...?
     
  24. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I said Tracy was tiny above. I think you need to read before you start a rant against someone.
    Call it midget if you want, but it killed 71 people, which was sad :(
    I like your contribution to these forums, but I think your argumentative side is getting the better of you. Let's start actually forecasting and not arguing :)
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Wax up the guns if you're in Port Hedland.
     
  26. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    Yeah the cyclone should make run to the low pressure created by the depression. I don't think the cyclone will intensify much if at all the depressions outflow and unfavourable shear appears to be limiting any further strengthening atm. So yeah POW you are on the money..
     
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  27. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Intriguing with the latest GFS op run going inland and towards the Gulf of Capentaria. EC says no. Low chance of movement to the Gulf of Capentaria, even less chance of cyclogenesis again. We'll see how we go...
     
  28. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    You can see the impact the depression its is having on the cyclone outflow channel its restricting it.


    [​IMG]
    Easterly shear these are not the plots you want to see if you are wanting to see a nice cat3-4 cyclone.
     
  29. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Not a bad looking cyclone...
     
  30. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    EC tracks the depression down through the interior and cranks up into a cold core extra-tropical cyclone, and quite a healthy one at that. in the tasman .This model run washes the current cyclone out into a weak depression before landfall.



    [​IMG]

    GFS washing the depression out and rebuilding the ridge under the cyclone /low sending it east.
    Note it turns the low north towards the Gulf yet has a leading front weakness at the time of the turn
    its unrealistic. The low would be captured by the front and turn south.

    http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ select shem basin
     
    #280 jeffx@stormwise, Dec 22, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2016
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  31. Annitowa

    Annitowa Well-Known Member
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    I was in Tracey, i just thought it was farking evil. :(
     
  32. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    So what do you think it was a meso tornado spawned in the rain band that shattered Darwin. I DO.
     
  33. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    That's what I would have thought would happen to that theory. Pretty low chance of the GFS scenario.
     
  34. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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  35. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    TPXS10 PGTW 222135

    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (YVETTE)

    B. 22/2100Z

    C. 14.40S

    D. 114.83E

    E. FIVE/HMWRI8

    F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

    G. IR/EIR

    H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. CONVECTION SHEARED 51NM FROM LLCC
    YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

    I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
    22/2016Z 14.30S 114.83E GPMI


    MARTINEZ


    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    Looks a weak tropical depression now.
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    The wheels fell off thanks to shear, you called it.:thumbs:
     
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  37. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    From the BOM:
     
  38. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    https://i.imgsafe.org/c6a5cde2de.png
    EC says should be good gusts about anyways,watch out for noahs .
     
  39. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    The strong typhoon NOCK-TEN is unstoppable to the Philippines and will land on Sunday (1st Christmas Day) in the southern Luzon region. At present, the eye of the storm in is satellite image clearly visible. In the course of the day, average winds of up to 130 knots (240 km / h) and wind blasts to 160 knots (296 km / h) are expected. Thus the typhoon could even become a super Typhoon

    http://wetterkanal.kachelmannwetter.com/taifun-nock-ten-erreicht-weihnachten-die-philippinen/


    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]


    This already looks a super Typhoon, agencies are still playing catch up with the rapid intensification IMO..
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    it should be called knock knock for extra precaution...
     
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  41. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    WDPN31 PGTW 240900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 13//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426 NM
    EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
    BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED
    WITH VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THIS EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.5
    (127-150 KNOTS) AND REFLECTS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
    ANALYSIS INDICATES STY 30W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
    (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
    THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
    PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    B. STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
    THE NEXT 72-HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS
    FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER CATANDUANES ISLAND SHORTLY AFTER TAU
    24, AND THEN DRAG ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON THROUGH MANILA BEFORE
    EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). STY NOCK-TEN WILL MAINTAIN
    ITS INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS
    ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE
    WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH
    LAND. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL EMERGE OVER THE SCS AT TYPHOON
    INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN WILL BEGIN CURVING
    SHARPLY SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY MONSOON
    SURGE OVER THE SCS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS
    IT INTERACTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRYER AIR AND STRONG VWS. THE
    CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
    GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
    THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST
    TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS
    HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
    CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
    NNNN

    [​IMG]



    this is a beast
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Catanduanes looks like it may be wiped off the map over the next day or so....:(
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  44. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Pretty big and it looks well formed too.
     
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  45. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    PINEYE likely being underestimated in intensity looks upper T7

    [​IMG]

    Hell paying a visit. Easy a sshs cat5


    [​IMG]

    Very destructive core and likely massive storm surge with this. Sad
     
    #295 jeffx@stormwise, Dec 24, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2016
  46. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    A few sobering facts about a cyclones in this upper intensity bracket.




      • As tropical cyclone sustained winds exceed 150-MPH, the term "super hurricane" (or "super typhoon") is used. In hurricane terms, this is a strong category-four storm and higher.




      • A strong hurricane (or typhoon) can release enough latent heat energy (which is just 3% of the total heat energy available to it at any give time) equivalent to detonating 500,000 (yes, half a million) Hiroshima type atomic bombs per day. In megatons, this is about 6,000 megatons. In wattage, about a billion megawatts (or a million gigawatts). In horsepower, about 1.3 TRILLION horsepower -
    http://sky-chaser.com/schurr.htm
     
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  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  48. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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  49. jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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    TXPQ27 KNES 250307
    TCSWNP

    A. 30W (NOCK-TEN)

    B. 25/0230Z

    C. 13.5N

    D. 125.6E

    E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

    F. T7.0/7.0/S0.0/18HRS

    G. IR/EIR/VIS

    H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A
    DT OF 7.0 AFTER 1.0 BEING ADDED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE MET IS 6.0
    WHILE THE PT WAS ADJUSTED TO A 6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

    I. ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL

    [​IMG]


    2016DEC25 073000 7.0 924.1 140.0 6.1 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT ON FLG -40.81 -76.09 EYE -99 IR 43.5 13.58 -124.97 FCST HIM-8 24.4

    14OKTS SSHS CAT5
     
  50. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    Damn.................direct hit as predicted back on Thursday morning.