Cyclone season 2016/17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.

  1.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

  2.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    JTWC tagged this as 90s
    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]
     
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  3.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Ah ok, that's 91S and yes it is looking much better
     
  4.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

  5.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    This is why you need to look @ full res on the GFS, mslp does not give surface mb. All other models do.
    Both 00z

    [​IMG]
     
  6.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    I reckon 91s is trying to form an eyewall according to the latest Himawari-8 images.
     
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  7.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Ensembles suggest it's in the clear for the moment. Currently only has 30 knts impacting the mainland and moving South.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2016
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  8.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    ~T2.5 on Dvorak Satellite intensity perhaps? Some good banding in NE & SW quadrants from what I can see.
     
  9.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    91S INVEST 161219 0600 16.0S 115.2E SHEM 30 998
    only a 30kt depression atm eyewalls usually appear @90kts, maybe check the microwave i doubt this even organised enough atm to be classified a cyclone
     
  10.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    [​IMG]
    JT was spot on @30kts

    ALERT ATCF MIL 91X XXX 161219060000
    2016121906
    -16.0 115.2
    -999.9-999.9
    180
    -16.0 115.2
    190900
    1612190851
    1
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
    WTXS21 PGTW 190900
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    A 180 NM RADIUS OF 16.0S 115.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
    AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
    CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
    BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190830Z INDICATES THAT A
    CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 115.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
    MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS:
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
    MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
    POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200900Z.
    //
    9116121812 150S1154E 20
    9116121818 153S1155E 25
    9116121900 157S1155E 30
    9116121906 160S1152E 30
    NNNN

    TPXS10 PGTW 190925

    A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (N OF LEARNMONTH)

    B. 19/0900Z

    C. 16.17S

    D. 114.62E

    E. FIVE/HMWRI8

    F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS

    G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

    H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
    A 2.0 DT. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

    I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


    BERMEA
     
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  11.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    yep very little organisation (from 2 hrs ago)
     
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  12.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    WTXS31 PGTW 192100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190851ZDEC2016//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
    RMKS/
    REMARKS:
    192100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 113.8E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 372 NM NORTH OF
    LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
    PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
    SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS DEEPENED
    AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
    INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND ON A CLUSTER OF AGENCY
    POSITION FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
    ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF, AND IS SUPPORTED BY
    A RECENT ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02S IS IN A
    NARROW ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH ROBUST DUAL
    OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA, AT 30
    CELSIUS, ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS
    CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
    REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT FEW
    DAYS, IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) AS AN
    APPROACHING CYCLONE (90S) FROM THE EAST WILL IMPEDE STORM MOTION DUE
    TO BINARY INTERACTION (BI). AFTER TAU 72, WHEN 90S MOVES OUT OF THE
    WAY AND INLAND INTO WESTERN AUSTRALIA, TC 02S WILL TRACK
    SOUTHEASTWARD AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING. BY TAU
    120, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF PORT HEADLAND. DUE TO THE
    BI AND CONSTRAINED VWS ENVIRONMENT, THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
    SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT A MERE 45 KNOTS DURING THE QS
    PHASE. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
    COMPLEX STORM MOTION WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
    FORECAST TRACK AND VARIANCES IN THE TIMING. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE
    IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
    200900Z AND 202100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
    190900).//


    [​IMG]
     
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  13.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Still not much on the MW for it (02S) either. 90S has a lot more convection. Will be interesting to see what happens over the course of today as they both spin up.
    20161219.2116.gpm.x.89h_1deg.02STWO.35kts-996mb-161S-1138E.63pc.jpg (Click for larger)

    TwoS (Yet to be formally named by BoM) is being hampered somewhat by moderate shear ~20kts, but often these storms influence the area in ways not fully captured by the models. They can sometimes dampen vertical shear in the area surrounding them, creating their own shear environment and effectively a feedback loop promoting intensification. Given how weak she is, that seems a little unlikely at the moment.
     
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  14.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    On the sat loop there is a clearly exposed LLCC for 02S (Soon to become TC Yvette?)
     
  15.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Both EC and GFS now falling in to line with a double headed attack

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  16.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Yeah Traps its hard to understand looking @sat-90S why NT is not under possible cyclone watch with 90s.. The other cyclone 025 is looking poor.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2016
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  17.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Punter question out of interest.
    Lunchtime learnings .
    ( You can tell me to piss of go do some work ;) ....)

    I've found my way here...
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#02S

    Why did they change 91S , in name to 02S Two. ?


    [​IMG]
     
  18.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Because it is no longer an investigation area but an active tropical storm. It has not been named by the BoM (they are the responsible regional body for that part of the world) so it remains as 02S until BoM decide it is worthy of TC classification and it will be named TC Yvette.
     
  19.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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  20.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    I agree with this. Seems more reason for watch not only because of its proximity to landmass/dwellings but less likely to be eroded by shear/jetstreams, troughing and mid latitude systems.
     
  21.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    [​IMG]
    Looks like on current GFS data, 02S looks to move right over Port Hedland.
     
  22.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

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  23.  
    Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    I'm due to start a road trip in Darwin on Boxing Day, driving down through to Mt Isa, and on to Brisbane. Am guessing this may impact the start of our journey?
     
  24.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Perhaps you can explain Rush why NT is not under a cyclone watch advisory

    [​IMG] .
     
  25.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Rush i dont think the BOM is looking at all the data ADT/02S




    UW - CIMSS
    ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
    ADT-Version 8.2.1
    Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

    ----- Current Analysis -----
    Date : 20 DEC 2016 Time : 054000 UTC
    Lat : 15:42:34 S Lon : 113:47:51 E


    CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
    3.2 / 992.3mb/ 49.0kt


    Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
    3.2 3.5 3.6

    Center Temp : -64.8C Cloud Region Temp : -69.3C

    Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

    Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

    Ocean Basin : INDIAN
    Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

    Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
    Weakening Flag : OFF
    Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

    C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
    - Average 34 knot radii : 27km
    - Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

    Satellite Name : HIM-8
    Satellite Viewing Angle : 36.2 degrees
     
  26.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    [​IMG]
    I guess the bom sat watcher is sayin what cyclones
     
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  27.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    02S "Two" has a very open LLCC now with no CDO therefore virtually no apparent convection ... probably sheared away! Unfortunately no recent MW to confirm and Himawari8 data is a bit funky today. see the vis sat loops to see the LLCC http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar/wan

    90S has much less welldefined circulation but much better shear environment and much more unstable atmosphere with considerably more convection (with banding) as seen in the MW from 3hrs ago
     
  28.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    90s has organised convention
    [​IMG]
     
  29.  
    The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

    Has anyone got easy access to a medium range historical trend for MSLP for SE Aus over the last 3 months? I have noticed pressure levels have remained fairly low without the instability which i just wanted to confirm.

    For instance, we have had pressure drop below 999. a couple of times but not deilver the the love so just wondering if it is an Aust Wide Trend or something else..
     
  30.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    May find it on jma
    http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/pr...1=pssh&kind2=hist&elem=slp&year=2016&month=11
     
  31.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Perhaps they are leaving it to Western Region (Perth Met Office) to update as it moves from region to region? Pass the buck maybe?
     
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  32.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    The EC has been consistent 90s will track deep into the joseph bonaparte gulf as a TC

    [​IMG] .

    [​IMG]
     
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  33.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

  34.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

  35.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    2016DEC20 070000 3.4 988.7 53.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -75.33 -68.64 UNIFRM N/A -0.0 -15.67 -113.81 FCST HIM-8 36.2
    2016DEC20 074000 3.4 989.4 53.0 3.3 2.9 2.5 0.5T/hour ON OFF 15.28 -34.80 SHEAR N/A -0.0 -14.31 -114.01 FCST HIM-8 35.3
    2016DEC20 081000 3.4 989.4 53.0 3.3 2.9 2.5 0.5T/hour ON OFF 17.16 -35.00 SHEAR N/A -0.0 -14.31 -114.00 FCST HIM-8 35.3
    Utilizing history file /data2/misc/adt/scripts/history/02S.ODT
    Successfully completed listing

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-ti...zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0


    02S has been a cyclone for hours
    Check how warm the core is
    Center Temp : +17.2C Cloud Region Temp : -35.0C

     
  36.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Welcome back, my mate who analyses data from Mt Gambier AWS and several private Weather stations in the area, said the pressure has been lower than average for the last three months.
     
  37.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    BOM needs to hurry up and make a cyclone warning already!
     
  38.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Last edited: Dec 20, 2016
  39.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Thats a very poor pass on that micro Trap.
    37 show the cyclone low-level excellent structure ie core and banding and the duel outflow channel.

    [​IMG]
     
  40.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    http://satview.bom.gov.au/
    Easy to see the low level centre on sat, you can also see the displacement from shear atm , but you can also see the convention and towers firing up over llcc.
     
  41.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

  42.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    CMC suggesting landfall between Hedland and Pardoo on Christmas Eve

    [​IMG]

    While GFS says 80 mile beach Christmas afternoon (possibly as a rain depression)

    [​IMG]
     
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  43.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Both models suggesting max winds around 50-55 knots as the system approaches the coast.
     
  44.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    I don't work in the regional offices.
     
  45.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Look here
     
  46.  
    Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Looks like a high end cat 3 at landfall.
     
  47.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    ? No actually it was a fine high range MW at the time it was taken (~7hrs ago) and that composite (from the same sat pass) shows exactly the same thing. The convection displaced to the south west quadrant, but nothing near the LLCC, No CDO some low level banding but thats about it. Dont forget the MW and composite above was from 0510Z, the convection eruption in the vis loop you posted starts at 07:10z, 2hrs later so isnt captured, but still it was only a single storm topping out and overshooting.

    This is a much more recent MW image (2hrs ago during your convective eruption) but still shows really poor convective structure for a cyclone ...
     
  48.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

  49.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    [​IMG]

    There was nothing wrong with the structure,it was excellent for a cat1 aussie at the time.
    You are not looking at a major cane traps you was viewing a moderate TS.
     
  50.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    CURRENT ESTIMATE
    Date (mmddhhmm): 12200151
    SATCON: MSLP = 995 hPa MSW = 53 knots
    SATCON Member Consensus: 55.2 knots
    Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 46 knots
    Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 185 nm
    Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

    Member Estimates

    ADT: 995 hPa 45 knots Scene: CDO Date: DEC200210
    CIMSS AMSU: 996 hPa 59 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 12200151
    SSMIS: 991.9 hPa 49.0 knots Date: 12191311
    CIRA AMSU: CRP hPa CRW knots Date: CRD


    [​IMG]

    All agencies were on the same page a moderate TS. The NRL traps micro was sickly wrong at the time.
    You need to look at all data not just one micro, ie sat,ascat ,temps,multi sat estimation.