Cyclone season 2016/17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.

  1.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    842 dead in Haiti.
    System didn't cross the coast in Florida, still making its way north. Not far from Jacksonville at the moment.
     
  2.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    So tragic. I heard ~10 dead in the US. Piss in the ocean compared to Haiti and the Bahamas!
     
  3.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

  4.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Bermuda is bracing for a hit from from a gnarly Cat 4 Atlantic hurricane
    [​IMG]

    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Nicole was
    located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 66.4 West. Nicole is
    moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An increase
    in forward speed is expected Thursday, followed by a turn toward the
    northeast and a further increase in forward speed expected by
    Thursday night. On the forecast track, the core of Nicole will pass
    over or near Bermuda on Thursday.

    Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
    that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215
    km/h) with higher gusts. Nicole is an extremely dangerous category
    4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little
    change in strength is expected overnight, and Nicole is forecast to
    be at major hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda. Some
    weakening is expected to begin by late Tuesday.

    Nicole has a large area of hurricane-force winds that extend outward
    up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force
    winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).

    The latest estimated minimum central pressure from the aircraft is
    950 mb (28.06 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda Thursday.
     
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  5.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    [​IMG]
     
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  6.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

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  7.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Along with "...the chance of cyclones is up 67%, why such a big increase?"
     
  8.  
    Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    With @William returning to FNQ next month I'm sure the two of us should be able to provide a few observations if things end up being as lively as the BOM suggests. Here's hoping we don't have too much to report.
     
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  9.  
    William

    William Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Yasi was my last year in Cairns. Leaving Adelaide after its wettest year ever including a multiple tornado storm, hoping I stop taking the weather with me.
     
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  10.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Super Typhoon Haima about to cause havoc in the Philippines

    [​IMG]
     
  11.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

  12.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Looking like the secondary eye-wall or possibly sheer got the better of it before landfall, which looks best case scenario, perhaps?
     
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  13.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Yeh, looks like it collapsed just before crossing.
     
  14.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    EC a weak aussie cat1 999mb off NW, model maybe under cooking this. mjo is about warm sst.
    Only thing that could hold a tc in check would be shear .

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  15.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Most models are predicting winds of less than 60kph. BOM hasn't really considered this, as of yet.
     
  16.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

  17.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Looks dangerous potential. We'll see how it pans out....
     
  18.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    [​IMG]
    Been invested by jtwc , some v/cold cloud tops atm.
     
  19.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    I love simulated sat pictures from NWP. BoM actually use them as a quick model output verification to identify regions of model 'busts' and errors etc.

    No models particularly bullish on storm formation at this stage.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2016
    :thumbs: POW_hungry likes this.
  20.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

  21.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]


    Should have posted these images before,as you can see the low looks 60% wrapped with convention
    at the time of the first jtwc invest tagging.
     
  22.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Ominous appearance to it. Without even seeing the loop it looks like it has rotation.
     
  23.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Looked at Himawari tonight, seems a little irregular in it's growth.
    Cloud top temps have backed off since earlier this arvo. I can see the 'banding', but to me it looks more like high-level cloud caught in the jet.
     
  24.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Its meandering about pow, looking elongated atm. But starting to get that MT moisture @700mb flow in from the indo. The jet to the south is a excellent setup atm for future outflow and intensification. This low needs to be watched closely over the coming week.
     
  25.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Also no doubt this is a closed low.
    [​IMG]
     
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  26.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    About 20% chance of a cyclone developing off the Kimberley Coast ATM. But the MSLP charts look like the low is gettting deeper.
     
  27.  
    Belly

    Belly Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Fiji area next week ;)
     
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  28.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member


    EC deterministic has been modelling a storm on runs since the 9th.
    [​IMG]
     
  29.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    The Darwin crews will be liking the look of these models,Huge monsoonal low over the TopE sucking the moisture from Indonesia and pumping it over the NT. [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  30.  
    Annitowa

    Annitowa Active Member Season Pass Gold

    Thanks Jeff!
     
  31.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    lucky I don't live in Darwin!
     
  32.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

  33.  
    hotsaki

    hotsaki Dedicated Member Season Pass Silver

    I do and believe me the weather has been really really vicious.Everyone bitching.Luckily it has finally broken and we have had storms and cloud cover since Saturday.No sign of frost let alone snow as yet!
     
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  34.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Love the BOM but you only need to look at the tropics.

    http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]





    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/
    Madden–Julian Oscillation not expected to have significant impact
    The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has generally been weak or indiscernible in the last fortnight and has not been a major driver of tropical rainfall patterns during that time. Nearly all climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict the MJO signal will remain weak or indiscernible in the coming week.
     
  35.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Yeah it's a bit stupid from the BOM, they clearly haven't looked at their own cloudiness chart, that shows increased cloudiness which usually signals an MJO. The RMM index isn't always reliable clearly.
    [​IMG]
     
  36.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Yeah look at the 200mb chi

    [​IMG]
     
  37.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    [​IMG]
    Latest GFS run on-board with the huge monsoonal low/cyclone over TopE
     
  38.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Cyclone landfall on 24th December. EC and GFS agree, not looking good for that area.
     
  39.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Looks ominous for Christmas eve.
     
  40.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    Looks a big system on modelling similar to severe tropical cyclone Thelma.
     
  41.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Pushing out in dates on latest GFS and EC runs.
    Possibly a boxing day present for Port Hedland

    [​IMG]
     
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  42.  
    hotsaki

    hotsaki Dedicated Member Season Pass Silver

    Thelma scared the living daylights out of me!
     
  43.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    WA cyclone still there on the latest ECMWF run
     
  44.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Tracking towards Christmas Island rather than WA coast with latest EC and GFS runs.
    No real stabilization on the track of the low yet.
     
  45.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    [​IMG]

    GFS still likes the low, tend to think any low that spins up over the top will track into the GOC bounce around and track W back over the TopE.
     
  46.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Still pretty fluid on the models.
    EC going for a weaker system impacting Hedland on Christmas eve
    [​IMG]

    GFS has a much stronger system, impacting further south, Onslow (perhaps) a few days later.
    [​IMG]

    Still changing plenty from run to run.
     
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  47.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    I like were those models end CC.
     
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  48.  
    Annitowa

    Annitowa Active Member Season Pass Gold

    Same!
     
  49.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member

    [​IMG]

    Its possible there will be more than one landfall, still think models may at some stage send this into the GOC.
     
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  50.  
    jeffx@stormwise

    jeffx@stormwise Active Member