Cyclone season 2016/17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.

  1.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Has been upgraded to 160kts

    WDPN31 PGTW 130300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI) WARNING NR
    18//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM
    SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER PHASE OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS DEPICTING
    STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE SURROUNDING A DISTINCT
    8NM EYE. THE EYE FEATURE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 160 KNOTS
    BASED ON THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND IS SUPPORTED BY A CONTINUOUS
    INCREASE IN SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH NOW STAND AT 164 KNOTS.

    DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD REMAIN AT 155
    KNOTS (T7.5). THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE TO A
    POINT SOURCE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM WITH LOW (5-10
    KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30
    CELSIUS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE. STY 16W
    CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING
    INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
    PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 16W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. VERY
    FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE INTENSE CYCLONE TO
    MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, LAND
    INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN AND INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING
    PHASE. STY MERANTI WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA JUST
    NEAR TAU 48 AS A STRONG TYPHOON. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
    INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK THAT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF
    TAIWAN. AT THIS TIME ONLY NAVGEM CLIPS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN.
    C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY 16W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING OVER
    LAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASED VWS
    AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL
    GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST DIVERGES GREATLY DUE TO THE RAPID
    WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. VWS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 30
    KNOTS AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT PRIOR TO
    LANDFALL AND THE STABILITY OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE
    PAST TWO CYCLES, THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
    FORECAST.//
    NNNN




    [​IMG]


    http://weather-models.info/latest/himawari-target.html
    Good link for the Wpac for latest target on systems has some nifty other features too.if you use translation.
     
  2.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Finally an updated MW image ... and doesn't it look absolutely beautiful! Beautiful symmetric convection, just stunning. A text book monster storm at its peak.
     
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  3.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    The JTWC track forecast
     
  4.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    and fo shiggles the full disk himawari saved for posterity.

    Click for full sized version (~20Mb)
    [​IMG]
     
    :thumbs: Claude Cat likes this.
  5.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Typhoon hunter James R is chasing this beast in southern Taiwan.
    JTWC has now sub 900mb.

    16W MERANTI 160913 0600 20.2N 124.2E WPAC 160 898
     
  6.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

  7.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Latest jtwc track has the eye much closer to southern Taiwan.
     
  8.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Last edited: Sep 13, 2016
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  9.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Yep and essentially no shear until China.
     

    Attached Files:

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  10.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    It is now just brushing the southern tip at 150kts sustained!! Yikes that's gonna have to do some damage :(

    Latest Microwave shows a double eyewall structure.

     
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  11.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    The next system behind Malakas is beginning to show signs of ramping now up too. It was being severely hindered in it's organising process by Meranti's huge outflow for several days now. Now that Meranti's influence is moving outta reach i expect we will see big numbers also from Malakas in the coming days.
     
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  12.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    [​IMG]
     
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  13.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Any reason why we have two storms starting with the letter "M" or has convention changed?
     
  14.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Malakas was the next on the list CC, TropicalStorm Rai http://phys.org/news/2016-09-nasa-tropical-depression-rai-thailand.html
    WPac storm list
    Nepartak
    Lupit
    Mirinae
    Nida
    Omais
    Conson
    Chanthu
    Dianmu
    Mindulle
    Lionrock
    Kompasu
    Namtheun
    Malou
    Meranti
    Rai
    Malakas
    Megi
    Chaba
    Aere
    Songda
    Sarika
    Haima
    Meari
    Ma-on
    Tokage
     
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  15.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Ok, they use to go in alphabetical order, but clearly that's changed (I have vague memories of this)
     
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  16.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    As expected now upgraded too Typhoon status.

    TY 1616 (Malakas)
    Issued at 07:10 UTC, 14 September 2016
    [​IMG]
    <Analysis at 06 UTC, 14 September>
    Scale -
    Intensity Strong
    Center position N15°40' (15.7°)
    E132°10' (132.2°)
    Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
    Central pressure 970 hPa
    Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
    ≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
    ≥ 30 kt wind area SE 330 km (180 NM)
    NW 220 km (120 NM)
    [​IMG]
    <Forecast
    [​IMG]
     
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  17.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    JTWC doesnt have Malakas intensifying as much as Meranti mainly (I think) due to high vertical wind shear in Meranti's wake. Temps are good (>30C) and there should be enough wet stuff ...
     
  18.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Someone at JTWC in hawaii is on drugs - There is no way Meranti is still 150kt ... MW clearly shows how land interaction has damaged it.


     
  19.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold



     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2016
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  20.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    MALAKAS
    As of 00:00 UTC Sep 17, 2016:

    Location: 24.1°N 123.0°E
    Maximum Winds: 110 kt
    Minimum Central Pressure: 945 mb


    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]


    MALAKAS looks to currently restrengthening after EWR should look a treat when the eye clears out.As the cyclone tracks NW along the SST gradient, with light SW shear this has a genuine chance @ becoming a true annular tropical cyclone.
     
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  21.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    [​IMG]

    MALAKAS
     
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  22.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Looks like it's heading for Japan, well the Southern parts at least
     
  23.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    [​IMG]

    Yes, at Cat 3 when it gets to southern Japan, weakening to Cat 1 and running along the coast. I can imagine lots of rainfall.
     
  24.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Yes the models have the cyclone raking Southern Kyushu, its the world's 14th most populous island with 13 million people.

    18W MALAKAS 160919 0000 29.3N 127.2E WPAC 105 946
    105KTS...... PRESSURE/ 946MB
    JTWC Best Tracks
    http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file
     
  25.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Typhoon Megi looks like its making a direct hit on Taiwan.

    [​IMG]
     
  26.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

  27.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Hurricane Matthew looks to mind-screw with Bermuda & the East Coast US for the next 10-days.
    Central pressure of 940hPa.
    Sustained Winds 150mph (240km/h).

    Haiti, Jamaica & Cuba in the firing line.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  28.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Looks like it will go down to cat 3 tomorrow sometime (currently cat 4)

    [​IMG]
     
  29.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Haitian/Cuban mountain ranges in full effect for the downgrade, I believe. It's the re-intensification that's the concern.
    Warm anomalies off the coast of Florida at the moment.
     
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  30.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Plenty of divergence in the models on where it goes after the Caribbean . Most have it heading parallel to the US coast, but far enough away not to cause too many problems.
     
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  31.  
    Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

    This is a possible shocker for Haiti.
    A handful of years after the devo earthquake which they are still recovering from.
    I hope those people get some reprieve.
     
  32.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Western Haiti was unfortunately hit (Cat4 - 230km/h winds) overnight. No reprieve here.
    Ensembles suggest US hit looking more likely now.
    [​IMG]
     
  33.  
    MarkV

    MarkV New Member Season Pass Gold

    [​IMG]


    Nasty track that Mathew is likely to take. Following the coastline allows it to hold its strength and cause damage over hundreds of kilometers.
     
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  34.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Kinda like skull dragging itself through the Bahamas, FL, GA & SC... Not good.
    According to chatter on tropical tidbits, most local US media sources are business as usual/relaxed about the whole scenario of it skirting the coast.
     
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  35.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    140 deaths reported in Haiti alone...
     
  36.  
    phrozen

    phrozen Active Member

    Mandatory evacuations in place, reports of people going to ride it out ('murica), good luck to them, those winds are going to pack a real punch!
     
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  37.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Direct hit on Florida (Palm Beach) likely
    [​IMG]

    And again South Carolina (Charleston)
    [​IMG]
     
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  38.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Looks likely to be very devistating for the Bahamas first, with an intensification to Cat 4 (again). Looking large!
     
  39.  
    phrozen

    phrozen Active Member

    I'm watching people on facebook live from Freeport, Bahamas, it's pitch black, it was daylight about 15 mins ago.
     
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  40.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Not a joke - i.e. someone actually wrote this
    [​IMG]
     
  41.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

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  42.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

  43.  
    hotsaki

    hotsaki Dedicated Member Season Pass Silver

    Extremely interesting.Are they spreading coal ash or lithium?
     
  44.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

     
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  45.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

  46.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Death toll up to 261 in Haiti alone.
     
  47.  
    trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Looks like it is tracking a bit East of the JTWC prediction which would mean either a mor northerly landfall or potentially no landfall of the eye at all.
     
    :thumbs: Claude Cat likes this.
  48.  
    Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

    Disneyworld, Universal Studios in Orlando have shut the gates until Saturday.
    That must be a first?
     
  49.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Yes, seems to be following the last HWRF projection - perhaps just grazing Cape Canaveral.
    [​IMG]

    Still looks like giving the Carolinas grief.
     
  50.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Just passing off shore from Cape Canaveral now.