Cyclone season 2016/17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    #451 jwx, Mar 5, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2017
  2. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Just got named. Cyclone Blanche is the third cyclone of the season and probably going to be the first to cross the coast... in March.
     
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  3. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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  4. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  5. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    AXAU01 ADRM 050145
    IDD20020
    TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
    Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
    at: 0145 UTC 05/03/2017
    Name: Tropical Cyclone Blanche
    Identifier: 20U
    Data At: 0000 UTC
    Latitude: 11.9S
    Longitude: 130.3E
    Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
    Movement Towards: southwest [231 deg]
    Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
    Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
    Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
    Central Pressure: 993 hPa
    Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
    Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
    Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
    Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
    Radius of 64-knot winds:
    Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
    Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.024HRS
    Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
    Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
    FORECAST DATA
    Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
    [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
    +06: 05/0600: 12.3S 129.8E: 040 [080]: 040 [075]: 993
    +12: 05/1200: 12.7S 129.4E: 055 [100]: 045 [085]: 990
    +18: 05/1800: 13.0S 128.9E: 065 [125]: 050 [095]: 987
    +24: 06/0000: 13.4S 128.3E: 080 [145]: 055 [100]: 984
    +36: 06/1200: 14.6S 127.4E: 100 [180]: 045 [085]: 987
    +48: 07/0000: 15.8S 126.3E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 999
    +60: 07/1200: 16.6S 124.8E: 140 [255]: 025 [045]: 1001
    +72: 08/0000: 16.8S 123.5E: 155 [290]: 025 [045]: 1001
    +96: 09/0000: 17.6S 121.8E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 1001
    +120: 10/0000: 19.0S 121.2E: 290 [535]: 025 [045]: 1003
    REMARKS:
    The system centre is currently difficult to locate. Position based largely on
    surface observations over the Tiwi Islands and surrounding area, satellite
    imagery, radar and persistence in past motion.

    Satellite imagery during the last 3-6 hours has shown continued bursts of
    convection close to but just west of the low level circulation centre [LLCC],.

    Dvorak intensity at 00Z is based on MET=3.0 using a D trend [no adjustment to
    MET made] as DT was not clear cut - a weak curved band of 0.6 wrap yielded DT
    3.0. System intensity is set at 35 knots.

    Recent motion has been to the SW at 6 knots. Forecast motion is for the low to
    continue to the SW during the next few days under the steering influence of a
    mid level ridge to the northeast and another to the southwest. NWP is in fair
    agreement with the forecast track, with the system crossing the north Kimberley
    coast Monday evening.

    The low is located under the upper ridge, which is providing excellent outflow
    from the NW to SW to S quadrants. CIMSS indicates the low is still under the
    influence of moderate 15-20 knots E wind shear. However during the last 24 hours
    the low has developed at the standard rate, indicating the outflow is offsetting
    any negative effects from the shear.

    As the low moves SW it remains under the upper ridge and so the system is
    forecast to develop at the standard rate, reaching category 2 intensity at
    landfall over the Kimberley. A faster intensification rate cannot be ruled out.

    Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    ==
    The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0800 UTC by Darwin TCWC


    [​IMG]
    Has nice radial outflow that will improve as the system gets even further over the JBG.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  7. hotsaki

    hotsaki Dedicated Member
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    I'm in Darwin.Bit of a relief,dont have to head out for more beer!
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  9. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]
    The white pixels on the image funktop is extreme rain.


    [​IMG]

    Dark area on the avn is mass cold convention,the red area's are towers.
     
    #459 jwx, Mar 5, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2017
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  10. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Despite the 'big wet' in the Kimberley this season, we haven't seen one of the standard big systems which roll in from the hot pool between Indonesia and Christmas Island.

    Just a number of wandering, weak lows, less spun up in their own self importance and spreading their watery love further afield.
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I know what you're getting at and agree with the lack of TC's but for the most part WA has well above positive anoms for the Summer just gone. Certainly inclusive of The Kimberley region, exactly as you mention.
    [​IMG]
     
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Blanche was a bit of a fizzer. Weakening at Cat 1, and will be a low shortly.
     
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  13. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Think we could all do with another TC Steve before seasons out.

    Floods for everybody.
     
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  14. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    A beast intensifying as it moves closer to a landfall.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]



     
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  15. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Mauritius and Reunion must be a tad interesting atm.
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Gone quiet in here...

    GFS progging a BEAST off Exmouth in ~10 days. Easily Cat 5 if it verifies. GFS putting it down to 934hPa CP.
    Showing up on EC too.
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS on it's own with this one on the 00Z run. All quiet on the western front in the EC camp now.
     
  18. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I think GFS was being a bit drunk on that one...
     
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  19. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]


    Impressive kelvin wave /WWB across the Indo atm.
     
  20. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    verify the season to date.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    V/poor skill in the seasonal forecast.
     
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  21. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I think that was going on a prediction of La Niña for summer, which obviously didn't happen. And the seasonal forecasting model is getting an upgrade this year anyway.
     
  22. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    summer was not nino as you know jelly most of the time you was in nina
    territory over the period. The orientation of the MT setups this season was not the norm. The sam screwed everything with up forcing.

    neutral is not nino.
     
  23. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Conditions in Pacific were neutral/weak La Nina in September when the model was run and these conditions were expected to remain during the summer.

    However, the statistical relationship between Indian Ocean TCs and Pacific SSTs/ENSO appears to have broken down at around 2010. There were some interesting papers on this at the AMOS conference in February.

    The problem with using a statistical model is that it presumes a stationary climate.
     
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  24. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    statisticaly .more tc past the date line in a nina:rolleyes:



    Point is the E/region 52% chance more with the W/nina. That is what you would expect in a raging elnino out at the date line and further east. Except it its a huge bust.
     
    #474 jwx, Mar 14, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2017
  25. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]

    PK solved the problem with the shem forcing in feb.Dry air in the indo.
    Forcing from theSAM over the mainland. A odd orientation of the MT
    was the result rush.

    Then the big change.

    [​IMG]

    When in doubt look to the PHD,s
     
    #475 jwx, Mar 14, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2017
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  26. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    About time something is done with the PMS model..
     
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  27. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Tracks parallel down the coast / over land on GFS for now.
    One thing they all agree on is the Easy Coast is in bit of a holding pattern and no end quite in sight for the E & NE flow .
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  29. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]
    Higher res don't develop the low over the NW WA on this run.
     
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  30. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Caught my eye when I was looking at the biz on the East Coast is all.
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    A bi-product and possible correlation between the extraordinary -ive IOD values of last winter & well below avg TC's in the Indian perhaps?
     
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  32. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Now the HIres is getting interested.

    [​IMG]
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    That's 3 of 3 now. On The Canadian, EC & GFS. Looking good to verify.
     
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  34. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  36. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    BOM guidance for a tropical low to the Northwest of Australia.
    "A weak tropical low lies near 12.3S 119.4E (about 700km north northwest of Broome). It is forecast to move slowly west and then south towards the Pilbara coast. The risk of the system developing into a tropical cyclone increases over the next few days, with a Moderate rating on Wednesday and a High rating on Thursday. While there is some uncertainty in the forecast track, there is a chance the system reaches the central or western Pilbara coast later Thursday or Friday. There is also a chance the system moves slower and tracks to the west before reaching the coast."

    Interesting and was plotted to an extent back on Friday by all 3 models.
     
  37. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Again I think this can be traced to the MJO in the region IMHO.
     
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  38. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  39. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    We've been low on cyclones this season, but the number of tropical lows is almost at a record.
     
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  40. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Tropical lows that don't develop ie weak depressions that move slowly
    over the top-end do a lot of good their natures aqueduct. Stronger
    TC's roar in and drag the MT away from the Topend.

    As for this low not confident it will do much it looks to be moving into
    the supprest western side phase of the mjo.
     
    #490 jwx, Mar 20, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2017
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  41. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Can you post the figures for the basin against other seasons to support this.
    Bom has alot of positions i'm told Customer service, field maintenance workers,.
    and of course Mets you?
     
    #491 jwx, Mar 21, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2017
  42. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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  43. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Bom has the gales must be in 3 quadrants rule,
    before they will name a storm. Meaning if the
    low has 64kts in 2 quads it will never be named.
    In any other basin that is a cane,typhoon or cyclone in swio.
    If you follow recon the best there is NHC as soon as 35kts
    is sampled in any quad on ascat or by actual flight mission
    the storm is upgraded.

    So basically you are saying under normal rules this
    season would be near record in tropical storms.


    Wikipedia is not official data you need better to prove your statement.

    WMO
    Tropical depression
    = tropical low A tropical disturbance with a clearly defined cyclonic wind circulation in which the central position can be estimated, and a maximum 10-minute average wind speed of less than 34 knots (63 km per hour ie. gale force) near the centre. There may be gale force or stronger winds in one or more quadrants but not near the centre.



    Tropical cyclone A non-frontal low pressure system of synoptic scale developing over warm waters and having a definite organized wind circulation with a maximum 10-minute average wind speed of 34 knots (63 km per hour, ie. gale force) or greater near the centre.


    Reliable data base's
    https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/web/guest/jtwc/best_tracks/southern-hemisphere


    Philip Klotzbach Mar 19
    The Southern Hemisphere 2016/17 tropical cyclone season remains remarkably quiet. Accumulated Cyclone Energy to date only 20% of normal.

    [​IMG]
    Poor season fullstop.
     
    #493 jwx, Mar 21, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2017
  44. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Another fizzer
     
  45. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    That above indicates even it the depression was to strengthen
    in the next 12hrs there is no intention to name it.
     
  46. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    91P INVEST
    [​IMG]
    Elongated atm as to be expected its still connected to the equatorial
    trough.


    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
    Will move into a very sweet environment for TC development




    [​IMG] .

    Divergence aloft to move max air transport ie overflow is great.
    SST's are some of the warmest in the coral sea atm as anywhere
    on the planet.



    [​IMG]

    Cant see any reason this model storm will not come to fruition
    and maybe even stronger.
     
  47. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    As I will be directly affected by this system I will be watching it with great interest. Going by the models this could be a significant system. Let's wait and see what happens.
     
  48. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Natures way to take the heat out off the ocean is a tropical
    cyclone. This is looking the ideal setup atm seafm.
    just my 2 cents.
     
  49. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    As long as it doesn't turn into another Larry or Yasi I'll be happy. Want the rain but not the wind.
     
  50. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    cmc has it captured sends it se away from the coast.
    will see in a few days if its still portraying a weakness in
    the ridge.


    The good oil EPS ens has 99% a tropical storm
    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    Almost 50% chance it will be a cat3+
     
    #500 jwx, Mar 22, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2017