Cyclone season 2016/17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Season has been off to a slow start, but we might have one forming off WA in the next day or two.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    I'm loving Himawarri-8's high spacial and temporal resolution photos ... looking at the loop http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=24 is awesome. Love the outflow bands!

    This will prob update. Click on image for full sized shot at 0.64 µm - basically a red filter.
    [​IMG]

    Honestly though pretty poorly organised convection at the moment, although looking at the animation above there does seem to be a well defined low level center of circulation.
    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Getting up to Cat 3. Getting stronger.
     
  5. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Sitting pretty stationary, Bedout island showing wind sustained at 33kts. No well defined eye and the location of the LLCC is hard to pick on both the radar and sat loops, although you could see one on the MW image from 6hrs ago.
    [​IMG]

    BoM has it hitting Pardoo at about 3am ... but with slow cyclones like this timing is always very very difficult to predict. If it stalls for much longer it could be a mid to high range Cat 3. SSTs are high and there is plenty of moisture but vertical shear is probably what is slowing development ... it is up at about 15-20kts at the moment.
     
  6. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Latest MW shows how disorganised he is now

    [​IMG]
     
  7. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture
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    is there any chance of a cyclone forming in the coral sea over the next week?
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    A chance, but looks to be heading eastwards.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I have a friend leaving on a cruise to Noumea etc today. For 10 days.
    I did point out to her it may be a bit rough.
     
  10. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    Good but not good. People in places like Mission Beach don't want another cyclone but the wet season has been a complete flop so far thanks to El Nino. We really do need a cyclone to make a landfall somewhere in the far north to finally get some decent rain totals happening.
     
  11. Bluebird

    Bluebird Old And Crusty
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    I was in Townsville in January and was staggered to discover they were on Level 2 water restrictions! The whole place looked so dry, not like it should in the middle of wet season. Cairns looked better. Hopefully some rain finds its way there soon.
     
  12. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    I'm an ex Townsville boy now living in Cairns and can see both sides of the coin. Townsville has always been a drier place than Cairns due to the lay of the land in relation to the prevailing south easterly wind. I was down there for a couple of days in December and it was the driest I can ever remember seeing it.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  14. Bluebird

    Bluebird Old And Crusty
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    I used to live there too. That first rain on the wet season was always heaven!

    Edit: sorry for the off-topic post.:oops:
     
  15. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    We are naughty aren't we?
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    TC Winston (Cat 5, 300 kph winds) has hit Fiji


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Jeff Masters:
    Winston is tracking north of its previous forecast track, and is now expected to make landfall on Fiji's second largest island, Vanua Levu, near Nambouwalu at approximately 0600 UTC (1 am EST) Saturday, as a Category 5 storm with 185 mph winds, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). This would make Winston the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the South Pacific waters east of Australia.

    It's the first ever Cat 5 to hit Fiji.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC and GFS show possible cyclone development in both the Indian and Pacific oceans

    [​IMG]

    Timeframes are fluid, GFS has a possible cyclonic system off Exmouth near the end of the month.
    I guess the conditions are getting more favourable for cyclone development now.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    AXS likes the chance of one in the gulf on Thursday.
     
  20. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    It may happen yet if it doesn't cross the cape first. We may finally get something that resembles a wet season later this week.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    A tropical cyclone may develop in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria and impact far north Queensland coastal communities this evening, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) says.

    A cyclone warning has been issued for the region, saying a tropical low may develop into a tropical cyclone later today as it approaches the southern Cape York Peninsula.

    "Gales may develop this evening between Burketown and Cape Keerweer, particularly between Kowanyama and Karumba," the warning reads.
     
  22. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    All over now because it headed east too fast and didn't even make it to cyclone status. Just light rain in Cairns today but things may get a bit heavier tomorrow. We need a wet season of some sort from this weather event, the clock is ticking.
     
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  23. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture
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    if it makes it into the coral sea, there is a possibility it could form into a cyclone
     
  24. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    Yes it will move east into the Coral Sea and unfortunately keep going east indefinitely.
     
  25. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Looks like plenty of +30 water east and west of Australia the last few days. Bit of kick to the cloud - are we seeing 2 late TC systems starting to form. It has been a feature of the last couple of years - late season TC action.

    Looking at the whole Pacific basin on http://earth.nullschool.net/ - it sure looks like the El Nino that does not want to give up quite yet. And the near lack of +30 water in the east - shows IMO how much this event was a central pacific El Nino year. When was the last super El Nino a central Pacific focus event.
     
  26. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Possibly the lowest TC season on national record in terms of storms crossing the Australian coast.
     
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  27. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    What TC season? Went the same way as the wet season.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC shows a possible for next week.


    [​IMG]
     
  29. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    Still too far out yet to say where they will go.
     
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  30. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    So there are a bunch of cyclones active globally right now, as well as a bunch of active zones. - This will update

    [​IMG]

    TC Gaston is currently a 185km/h sustained monster in the Atlantic
    [​IMG]


    Lionrock was a strongish typhoon which fortunately got sheared into oblivion before hitting Japan
    [​IMG]

    and finally Lester and Madeline are currently heading towards Hawaii. Fortunately in a stunning example of binary interaction or "the Fujiwhara Effect" the two may interact and therefore move away from Hawaii

    [​IMG]

    Plus a bunch of other TDs and TLs in GoM and elsewhere ... might make up for the lack of cyclones earlier in the season!
     
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  31. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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  32. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Looks like "rich uncle pennybags'
     
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  33. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Johnny 5 is alive

    [​IMG]
     
  34. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Fascinating plot
     
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  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  37. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    SSHS cat4,western eyewall is little weak has a excellent shot @C5.
    16W MERANTI 160912 0000 17.9N 130.3E WPAC 115KTS 948

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  39. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    TheJMA forecast is for a SuperTyphoon.

    [​IMG]


    TY 1614 (Meranti)
    Issued at 06:50 UTC, 12 September 2016
    [​IMG]
    <Analysis at 06 UTC, 12 September>
    Scale -
    Intensity Very strong
    Center position N18°20' (18.3°)
    E129°25' (129.4°)
    Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
    Central pressure 920 hPa
    Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
    ≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
    ≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
    [​IMG]
    <Forecast for 18 UTC, 12 September>
    Intensity Violent
    Center position of probability circle N18°55' (18.9°)
    E126°25' (126.4°)
    Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
    Central pressure 915 hPa
    Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
    Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
    Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
    [​IMG]
    <Forecast for 06 UTC, 13 September>
    Intensity Violent
    Center position of probability circle N19°35' (19.6°)
    E123°55' (123.9°)
    Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
    Central pressure 910 hPa
    Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
    Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
    Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
    [​IMG]
    <Forecast for 06 UTC, 14 September>
    Intensity Violent
    Center position of probability circle N20°55' (20.9°)
    E119°25' (119.4°)
    Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
    Central pressure 915 hPa
    Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
    Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
    Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)
    [​IMG]
    <Forecast for 06 UTC, 15 September>
    Intensity Very strong
    Center position of probability circle N22°35' (22.6°)
    E115°50' (115.8°)
    Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
    Central pressure 930 hPa
    Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
    Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
    Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
    Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)
     
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  40. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    Now a category 5 storm with winds of 155 kts / 285km/h sustained.

    [​IMG]
     
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Beast.
     
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  42. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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  43. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    Indeed.

    NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
    SUPERTYPHOON Meranti / 16W
    Philippines designation Ferdie
    Warning 17 from JTWC at 2100 GMT
    Position 19.3N 126.7E
    Location 436 miles S of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan
    Movement 285° (WNW) at 15 knots
    Maximum sustained winds 155 knots gusting to 190 knots
    Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 115 to 150 miles of the centre
    Winds of 64 knots or higher occur within 45 to 60 miles of the centre
    Threatened landmasses Philippines, Taiwan, China
    Maximum significant wave height 47 feet
    Next warning from JTWC at 0300 GMT

    Meranti will strengthen to 160 knots in the next 12 hours. The storm will pass south of Taiwan and weaken, but still be above 100 knots upon making landfall in southeastern China on Thursday.
     
  44. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Meranti is certainly large and is in a lovely low Vshear environment (<5kt) at the moment and high SSTs (>31 °C) which will see some further intensification over the next 12-18 hours.

    There is a risk of some dry air in the north / North East quadrants getting sucked in which would destabilise it slightly, but it has so much momentum, it would be a little like a horse swatting a fly - annoying but not really harmful!

    Microwave image shows good structure, but not a perfect annular cyclone with a gap in convection in north East quad ... which is a little surprising given it's strength - this is possibly because it is still intensifying and consolidating.

    Watch the MW images over the next 12-18hrs. If it doesnt turn into a perfect annular cyclone then I'll eat my hat. All the ingredients are there.

    MW Image


    WV
     
  45. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    The International Space Station will be passing within 400km of the eye in about 50 minutes ... hopefully the astronauts are awake enough to take some pics! :)

    No brilliant sat passes in the next few hours, but hopefully METOPB/A and GPM will be close enough ... we'll see.
    Date Time (Z) Sat CPA (km)
    2016/09/12 00:50 METOPB 675
    2016/09/12 01:20 TERRA 1437
    2016/09/12
    01:29 N16 822
    2016/09/12 01:37 METOPA 615
    2016/09/12 01:40 ISS 395
    2016/09/12 02:05 GPM 496
    2016/09/12 02:57 TERRA 1101
    2016/09/12
    03:46 NPP 1540
    2016/09/12
    04:22 GCOM-W1 770
    2016/09/12
    04:26 AQUA 783
    2016/09/12
    05:26 NPP 1043
    2016/09/12
    05:52 N19 428
    2016/09/12
    06:17 F15 507
    2016/09/12
    09:18 N15 67
    2016/09/12
    09:30 CORIOLIS 43
    2016/09/12
    09:47 F19 251
    2016/09/12
    10:03 N18 730
     
  46. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    The outflow is massive,SST appear to be to warm for a annular cyclone transition.


    [​IMG]
     
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  47. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Not so sure about that ... the "latest" MW image above is 6 hrs old, and it has intensified a fair bit since then. I've not heard of SST's being too high to prevent it!

    To be perfectly honest, technically it is already an "annular" cyclone with a clearly symmetric central dense overcast around a symmetric eyewall. My point was that the convection according to the MW image 6hrs ago is not quite symmetric. It is pretty close, but I'm a pedant and like to see a perfectly "maxed" out MW Temperature surrounding the eye before I call it annular! :D
     
  48. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    Not even close to annular cyclone,annular systems have absolutely no banding features ie outflow is tucked in. The 1237utc shows clearly the STY is not annular. Cyclones transition to annular when unique shear conditions combined and lower sst impact the cyclone neither is apparent atm. The term absolute angular 'momentum' is often confused with angular cyclone:D;)


    example of a annular system below, note no banding.

    [​IMG]


    current
    TPPN11 PGTW 130016

    A. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI)

    B. 13/0000Z

    C. 19.61N

    D. 125.47E

    E. ONE/HMWRI8

    F. T7.0/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

    G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

    H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
    YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
    OF 7.0. MET YIELDS A 6.5 AND PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT.

    I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
    12/1847Z 19.32N 126.68E SSMI


    BERMEA
     
  49. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Hmmm I thought that the definition / characteristics of an annular cyclone only referred to the nature of the CDO and eye wall not the outflow bands? Happy to be corrected if that is not true in which case you would be right, it is not annular nor will it become annular.
     
  50. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Did some reading and Jeff you are absolutely right, my definition has been wrong all these years! Maranti is very clearly NOT an annular system nor is it likely to become one as per the correct definition! I learnt something new today!
     
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