Australian Snow Season 2012 outlook

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Feb 20, 2012.

  1.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    As some of the other threads are starting to get polluted with this question, here is the place to discuss your outlook for the 2012 Australian snow season.

    La Niña is showing signs of weakening, although I'd say that the SOI seems to generally head down this time of year.

    [​IMG]

    If we do have a more neutral SOI, I'd have expectations of better season than last.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  2.  
    BlueHue

    BlueHue Dedicated Member

    I'll have a go at a very early, very uneducated and likely very wrong guess!

    1) SOI going into and predicted to stay in weakly positive to neutral territory over winter i.e. generally favourable territory according to many for snowfalls

    2) IOD predicted (no idea how reliable IOD model forecasts are) to be going into weakly negative territory over winter according to BOM and Jamstec it seems after quick google. This is generally a good sign as negative IOD leads to more moisture injected into systems from the north west, but the negative IOD does not look to be too strong at this point which is good, as strong neg IODs may lead to excessive amounts of moisture, warm and rain form the north-west cloud bands instead of snow.

    3) Global temps are dropping. Both the north and south hemispheres and are reaching a low point as low as 2008 and 2001 lows points. Dip in global temps after a la nina usually has about a 2-5 month lag after the peak of la nina. This la nina peaked in Jan which would mean the low point in global temps would be sometime from mid autumn into early winter and would drop that dip to be even lower than 2008/2001 lows and therefore produce the coldest global temps since Pinatubo blew its top in the early 1990s. I've just tried to google to find a plotted dataset of where satellite temps are at, but in my limited time over my lunch break it seems impossible to find something that is not biased and objective. Stupid global warming arguement.

    4) Finally, whether its fact or fiction, olympic/leap years always produce better snow years.

    Very dubious prediction: We are in for a goodun.
  3.  
    BlueHue

    BlueHue Dedicated Member

    And the x-factor of course is SAM. It could over ride all the others factor and rule the season. Lets hope it spends a lot of time in the negative!!
  4.  
    kiter

    kiter Active Member

    One thing is certain . It will snow .(Sorry couldn't help myself from getting in first and stating the inevitable) otherwise interesting insights thus far .(Is anyone taking bets on how many pages this thread will be by august?)
  5.  
    jontsy

    jontsy Active Member

    Interesting, I've observed that trend as well looking back at the data. I wonder if there is any pattern or just coincidence.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  6.  
    smitty484

    smitty484 Old And Crusty

    I predict that the usually suspects will predict a bumper season and it will turn to shit. My itchy right knee has given me this insight.
  7.  
    cin

    cin Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    This year is the beginning of the ice age.
    2m in Jindy by mid april.
    5m base from June to October, in the village Thredders.
    Over next summer the base wont dissapear above 1600m
    This is the beginning of our new Ozi glaciers.
  8.  
    jontsy

    jontsy Active Member

    I'll be skiing in my backyard in Sydney
  9.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    We might want to keep this sensible?
  10.  
    ice_man

    ice_man Dedicated Member

    Weaker La Nina this year may mean that temps will drop quicker this autumn as there is less moisture about, which would set us up for a nice cold winter.

    Although weather patterns change rapidly over the months, so we could end up with frustrating blocking patterns as well. At this stage it's anyone's guess.

    Just like how spring arrived a month early last year, and I thought that meant a consistently warm summer. It was consistently warm for January, but December and February were disappointing.
  11.  
    rocketboy

    rocketboy Active Member

    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  12.  
    Nowada

    Nowada Active Member

    Cin's predictions are much better reading
  13.  
    Gerg

    Gerg Active Member

    I don't predict until April.
  14.  
    loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

    I asked a long term local farmer the other day at the pub and he said he would tell me in October.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  15.  
    currawong

    currawong Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    according to my memory

    2008 ok
    2004 good but late
    2000 fan-bloody-tastic
    1996 ok at falls but a disaster at buller
    1992 good but late
    1988 can't recall so probably average or ok
    1984 good but very late (like 2010)
    can't recall before that
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  16.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Well the BOM, for autumn, thinks it will be relatively neutral to wetter (NSW) for rainfall

    [​IMG]

    And cooler than average for autumn

    [​IMG]

    From Autumn outlooks issued today.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  17.  
    Zeroz

    Zeroz Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  18.  
    Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member

    Best post so far [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19.  
    FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    If La Nina weakens to a more neutral range (-5 to +5) then we could very well be in for a good season.....Also keep an eye on the SOI for April/May/June - Sandy who I am sure will post something sooner rather than later - if it starts to rapidly fall then that's apparently a good sign?
  20.  
    SAL

    SAL Active Member

    This guy (Bruce Petersen) uses snow depth cycles and trends, calculated from Snowy Mountains Hydro data, to predict peak snow depth at Spencers Creek:

    http://msowww.anu.edu.au/~peterson/snowdepth.pdf

    he's predicting (guess-timating?) 205cm.

    His record over last couple of years:

    2010: predicted 181.2cm; actual 192.5cm

    2011: predicted 201.5cm; actual 164.4cm

    There's a graph in the article where he gives his predictions and actuals back to 1997.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  21.  
    Olgreg

    Olgreg Active Member

    At least he is honest enough to compare his predictions with actual depth. That graph shows that he has got the approximate pattern if not always the depth, and 2006 defeated him..like everyone else.
  22.  
    kiter

    kiter Active Member

    lots of warm water off WA if it sticks around for winter could be interesting
  23.  
    2nd_String_QB

    2nd_String_QB Active Member

    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  24.  
    ice_man

    ice_man Dedicated Member

    IMO that's bad... tends to cause interesting weather in Perth, which often results in blocking patterns over eastern Aus...
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  25.  
    FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    A couple of interesting obs as per this article released on SMH this morning (Yes I know Sydney has nothing to do with the correlation of a good season down south):

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weathe...0229-1u3ic.html

    "Sydney has not had a December so cool since 1960. It has not been this wet since 1991."
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  26.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    Yet (as I posted elsewhere), while Melbourne had a far from extreme summer, our minimums were 2 degrees above average and maximums were also above averages.
    I wouldn't read too much into it for winter.
  27.  
    PG

    PG Old And Crusty

    Here is something to consider.

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  28.  
    MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    Interesting PG that just a cursory glance would suggest the amount of rainfall for the continent appears constant, but in the areas we want rainfall/snow i.e. The Alps its been lowest on record.
  29.  
    cold wombat

    cold wombat Pool Room Season Pass Holder

    Why the half year extra in that time frame? Wouldn't it be better to show full seasonal cycles?

    Be interesting to see a rolling 5 (or 10?) year map for each year to see how that pattern changes.
  30.  
    davidg

    davidg Dedicated Member

    2007-2012?
  31.  
    cold wombat

    cold wombat Pool Room Season Pass Holder

    April - Sept?
  32.  
    PG

    PG Old And Crusty

    Well we can only go to 2011 as we can't measure future rainfall.

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  33.  
    PG

    PG Old And Crusty

    10 year map for each season.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  34.  
    Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room

    Looking across the whole of Australia, wetter during spring and summer, not much change (apart from the location) through autumn and winter.
  35.  
    dawooduck

    dawooduck Old And Crusty

    global warming trend
  36.  
    Ulmerhutte

    Ulmerhutte New Member

    Sure is. First 2 weeks at St Anton... under -20C. Peak snow depth at mid-mountain... 5.8m. Bring on more global warming. :)
  37.  
    PolePlant

    PolePlant Guest

    Either would I
    As mentioned before Melb BOM station is a dud, any reading off it are of no worth and there are plenty of other stations that are not as bad to get values from, I dont know why people contuinue using Melb AWS
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  38.  
    cold wombat

    cold wombat Pool Room Season Pass Holder

    Those last two graphs are very telling (I think; TBH I'm not sure exactly what they're measuring; cumulative 10 year rainfall? and compared to what average?). The 10 year figures don't seem to be smoothing out the data much if I'm reading it right. A change of only 3 months between them and the 10 year pictures are very different. That doesn't sound right to me. And why do they cover 10 years and three months instead of just 10 years?
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  39.  
    davidg

    davidg Dedicated Member

    2007-2012?
  40.  
    Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Addicted Member Season Pass Holder

    http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/objtwr/imported_assets/content/lwe/cli/farmnotedeciles.pdf
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  41.  
    cold wombat

    cold wombat Pool Room Season Pass Holder

    Thanks. Too tired to read it now, but I'll have a look over the weekend.
  42.  
    davidg

    davidg Dedicated Member

    [​IMG] missed this hence my re-post. You know what meant tho [​IMG]

    I had a bit of a search on the BOM website and couldnt find anywhere to generate maps with custom intervals. Is ths available online?
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  43.  
    Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    I am guessing you're talking about the first 2 weeks of Feb? And selectively forgetting the second half of Feb and the first bit of March, and it's associated warm spell (weather in the teens, and in the 20's in other parts of the alps!) pouring rain, melt, and the full-depth avalanches that has been triggering. A month later and mid-mountain depth is now listed as 385cm at St Anton. That's a loss of 2m of cover during Feb/March, which would be nothing to sing about. But hey, let's save our selective weather obs for our biased chats in CV!
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  44.  
    Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    Also, how are we feeling about the SOI? After a couple of years of deep into the positives, we might be heading negative again if the current trend keeps up. Nino to return? We're due.

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  45.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator

    it's a fairly normal pattern for the SOI to drop in autumn. Signs are it's going to be more neutral, but lets wait and see.
  46.  
    PG

    PG Old And Crusty

    No.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  47.  
    PG

    PG Old And Crusty

    I believe that's because the Pacific Ocean thermocline naturally tends toward equilibrium at this point in the ENSO cycle, due to the speed of the Kelvin waves which cause ENSO events and the distances from one end of the Pacific to the other.

    In any case our Autumn is the point at which the 'limit of predictability' closes for ENSO events. Thus seasonal forecasts for our autumn have very low forecasting skill.
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  48.  
    filski

    filski Old And Crusty

    Hmmm... I'm going pessimistic with a caveat. I haven't looked at my usual sources yet but off the top of my head I'm going to go with warmer than average night time temps at the resorts and high dew points hampering snowmaking - at least early in the season. Natural snow will be slightly enhanced but expect plenty of rain events too. How the season ends up by end of August is an aggregate of how many steps forwards and backwards. As the season progresses into the final 6 weeks I'd hold some hope that it gets better though with snow holding more and temps trending cooler. Sept could be the best month and Vic could do better than NSW this year.

    Again, this is a general 'vibe' type post and not backed by much than a general feeling of current conditions and guessing where they might wind up.
  49.  
    Donza

    Donza Pool Room Season Pass Holder

    Seasson 2012 depends on three highs and four lows imo...where they fall will determine much... I'll write a more concise post Tommy
  50.  
    MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Part of the Furniture Season Pass Holder

    and that 1 degree of temp that makes 1500m wet rather than white
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013