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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Aug 24, 2016.
No real good news for this one.
Only good news being that it's 150 to 200 hours out - leaving plenty of time for it to improve?
On the assumption that doesn't happen - how "not good" are you thinking this will be CC? Rain for all 3 days? Should I pack two books for my week at Falls instead of one?
I'd say 2 pretty wet days (30-31) and 1 "damp" IMO
On the bright side it looks quite wet for us in Central Vic mid-next week. Good for rivers, dams, crops etc.
Thanks CC - that still (hopefully!) leaves me 5 non-wet/damp days to enjoy (Sunday to Sunday). Would be very happy with that!
00Z GFS/EC seem a little more aligned in the last 2-3 runs.
GFS showing 20-30mm Tues-Thurs
EC showing 30-40mm Tues-Thurs
Freeze level at it's lowest (~1800m) early Friday morning - which will be too little too late.
Outside of this +2100m FL (Tues, Wed, Thurs), IMO.
I feel it in my fingers
I feel it in my to-oes...
Very tropicana look on the EC @that range, do note it shows a low beginning to wrap in the SW corner of nsw.
Which lends itself to funnelling the wandering cooler air, albeit not overly cold. But really just a closing of the stable door after the horse has bolted IMO. Majority of the moisture will have passed by Friday midnight.
Agree yeah it looks as CC and you polity put it.
The NCEP ens looking a little more generous with that low the EC plot shows starting to wrap.
Meanwhile the SW can brace itself for another hiding on the 3/4th. Looking big on NCEP!
30-40mm across 2-3 days aint that much, the majors will be fine. Obviously the same can't be said for the lower resorts.
Yeah, the next system is showing no love but whats behind gives hope for an early spring vindaloo.
The current trailing high is 1034hpa but the 3 following are lucky to crack 1024hpa. And some very strong lows below them.
Ride this one out and then settle in.
Anything Baw Baw has will be gone. No Questions Asked (Sorry @Baw Baw Bear)
Same with Selwyn and LM.
After this event will be stick with only the off piste runs which are up high and the groomers IMO.
Perisher and Top half of Thredbo should be fine.
Hotham and Falls will be fine.
Buller might have some issues.
I reckon we have a good week, then a meh week, then a couple of crap weeks until season wraps up.
Wow check this wanderer:
We are in Thredbo for a week from Sunday. We have had 9 seasons in a row since 2007 with a week of no rain and good conditions. Looks like our luck is up for season number 10...
Some warm incursion into the poles behind it. How very inter-seasonal of it.
Unbook, Abort, cancel !
Won't end the season but won't do it any favours
Weird August wanderer
Rain, hail, snow or shine, there will be a smile on all faces if skiing.
I also know someone who used to go this same week every year. I remember a few years back it was the first weekend in September, possibly 2nd weekend when there was a torrential rain event.
This period looks very warm at the moment IMO
We normally go a week or two earlier, but couldn't this year.
This period is looking unsuitable and possibly very wet now, models are unkind atm.
No problem We have bigger things to be concerned about, Leasing , Rates and another strategic plan ,troubled times ahead !!
GFS 18Z looks just gross for Wed and Fri.
And has anyone else noticed Yeah... Nah's odd renderings of EC this season? Seems to consistently have the temps too low. For example, currently has half a metre of snow for Perisher progged for Fri. More nah than yeah that one IMO
As it's been all along. IMO
GEFS going with the tropicana fetch with alot of uncertainly with the cluster of lows with some deep off the coast.
Spent way too much quality time on snow for that nonsense
I'd be most concerned about elevation. You all need to have a round table about that one.
I have a strategic plan. Be on your feet and the ski lift company needs to open everything they can quickly, rather than waiting for the weekend. Baw Baw can't do that anymore.
Anyway, One Word: Rain
Hold the **** on.... This thing was 30-40mm on Wednesday. 30-40mm wasn't the end of the world.... That right there, is the end of the world!
Moisture levels have been upgrading over the last day or two.
at ben (lift company ) is pulling the pin this weekend , its been a long season for us .. i think they looked at this forecast for next week . looks very wet ..
As @jeffx pointed out earlier today, this thing now has a conveyor belt of moisture from the tropics since 00Z run yesterday... skies the limit in terms of rainfall as long as that fetch is maintained.
It's not going to be pretty.
r predictions this bad?? Bears predict this could be a useful acquisition for those with wealth...
Not prepared to panic yet. Todays run looks like crap but the low takes a while to cross the bight and then disintegrates at the Vic border. Its also followed by some cold air so we just need a cold air injection into the low on its travels and todays predicted 120ml is cut to 50ml and survivable.
Just remember, last weekends front was called by most as 20ml pre frontal and 10cm after. We actually got 5ml pre and 30cm plus after.
I say let it play.
Yep not a bad season considering there was no real major dump just consistent cool temps and lack of rain event i guess, still looks decent over the back.
Mawson holding onto its modest cover well also.
Back on topic, next week looking shit.
Is that 100mm predicted?
If you are under the bullseye... 170mm...
ouch!!! thats more than the rain event back in late july. at least that was followed by 70cm of the good stuff
Bye bye ski season below 1700m. http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/rainfallchart.jsp?lt=wzstate&lc=nsw&mh=168
Could be locally 200mm according to GFS.
Toot, toot. Pineapple express.
Will be some major flooding if this happens. The ground is saturated already.
Looking more likely a event wide spread over the SE,not your standard moisture flux.
Note the blocking high to the east i think the low will be very slow moving and ramp up.
To avoid any confusion not talking snow here, if the models keep trending this event be prepared for major flooding.