Predictions August 3-9th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 29, 2017.

  1. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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    I predict that we are leaving Thredbo Sunday morning. Must leave by 10am, but, what will be the best time to leave and should we chain-up our AWD?
     
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

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    Earlier the better....you'll be fine. Just wait for the sun. Coldest air and heaviest snow will be a bit later
     
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  3. cqen2l

    cqen2l Part of the Furniture
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    The chain decision will most likely be made by someone else if conditions warrant them. Follow their directions.
     
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  4. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    Everything is lining up nicely. Monday at Buller will be the day. Combination of easing winds, low temps at 500mb and precipitation should make it a good one. Should get at least 20cm by Monday night.
     
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  5. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    Seriously, hey @kimberlee81???
     
  6. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
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    Smiggs might be OK tomorrow but ya gotta get there and then deal with natures fury when you are there
     
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  7. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    I'm at Hot-ham now, I've driven the road a hundred times. There is absolutely no way I'd drive the Harrietville approach tomorrow.
     
  8. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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    Fireplace and a good book day!
     
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  9. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
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    Guthega Tbars were slowed this afternoon, not to mention the Tbar track was a windblown nightmare :) Hmmm SSA SkierX in centre valley 8.30 am tomorrow, can't really just not turn up?
     
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  10. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    If youve got a holiday booked - head up. But chains will be essential. If your not used to driving off road in 4WD then take massive caution. eg even if you have 4wd, but arent used to dealing with wheels sliding and wheels gripping and not gripping. These will be conditions where significant respect will be required. (these days i spend 2-4 months driving on snow covered roads)

    It will take a significant effort to get to your lodging. Skiing wont be recommended. Full blizzard conditions.

    Gale force winds, white out, brutal wind chill.

    Recommend curling up in front of the fire and enjoying nature at its best and saving yourselves for .... probably Tuesday morning.

    Hey im not heading down to the ski fields. Im excited by this system. I love a damn good blizzard like this. If you ski Australia - and you want great snow then you had better get used to these massive blizzards out of the southern ocean
     
    #760 Taipan, Aug 5, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2017
  11. jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

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    Heading to Hotham Monday .. via Omeo
     
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  12. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    Obviously I could be wrong, just my opinion
     
  13. skidazza

    skidazza Active Member

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    Sound advice indeed Taipan. Heading up to Falls first thing Sunday morning and have absolutely no plans to venture out until at least Monday afternoon, probably Tuesday. There's a fine bar and an open fire at the Falls Creek Hotel that will do me just nicely until it's safe to go out.
     
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  14. jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

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    I made that call earlier this week ;)
     
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  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    It's like a 'tic'
     
  16. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Gone back to the safe place I bet...
     
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  17. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    Btw almost nobody in Australia drives on snow tires.

    If you have snow tires and 4wd then if you drive cautiously you will get there.

    If you are driving to or from the snow over next 48 hours, once you reach the freeze line SLOW DOWN.

    Drive slowly as if you are about to slide at any moment. Ignore idiots overtaking you. 50/50 chance they will be off the road before you reach where you are going.

    Always remember driving a RX 7 in Perisher in 81. Driving slowly carefully, and in a fraction of a second I was backwards into a snow bank. Luckily no damage apart from ego.

    Ice is dangerous without the right kit
     
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  18. fmdc9

    fmdc9 Active Member

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    Perisher predicting 47/47 open tomorrow
    Theyre smoking crack
     
  19. skull

    skull New Member

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    Yes but then read the report and it mentions that there will be lifts on hold.
     
  20. Ryan W Kan

    Ryan W Kan Active Member
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    Did the storm eventuate? Cedarwood shows no gain overnight...
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yes it did... it's not here yet. There's plenty of info above to indicate when you can expect it. Refer to obs thread.
     
  22. skidazza

    skidazza Active Member

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    Don't panic! BOM forecast for today at Falls :)
     
  23. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Id be driving off hotham via omeo tonight , you may not have a choice
     
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  24. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  25. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    IDN20032
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    New South Wales

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in parts of the
    Snowy Mountains Forecast District.


    Issued at 4:48 am Sunday, 6 August 2017.

    VIGOROUS WINDS OVER ALPINE AREAS

    SYNOPTIC SITUATION:
    A strong cold front approaching from the southwest will move across southern New South Wales today. This system will maintain vigorous west to northwesterly winds over alpine areas during Sunday and Monday.

    DAMAGING WIND gusts in excess of 90 km/h are possible for Alpine areas above 1500 metres. DAMAGING WINDS averaging 80 to 100 km/h, with peak gusts in excess of 120 km/h, are likely over Alpine areas above 1900 metres. Winds are expected to ease later on Monday.

    BLIZZARD CONDITIONS are possible in these areas. The National Parks Service of NSW recommends that people consider postponing back country travel until conditions improve.

    Locations which may be affected include Perisher Valley, Charlotte Pass and Thredbo.

    A wind gust of 130 km/h was recorded at Thredbo Top Station at 9:00pm Saturday.
    A wind gust of 91 km/h was recorded at Perisher Valley at 10:15pm Saturday.

    The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
    * Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
    * Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
    * Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
    * Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid on 131 388, or Endeavour Energy on 131 003 or Essential Energy on 132 080, as shown on your power bill.
    * For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

    The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Sunday.

    Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.



    [​IMG]


    Warning to Sheep Graziers
    IDN29000

    Warning to Sheep Graziers
    for the Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, Central West Slopes & Plains, South West Slopes, Riverina, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts

    Issued at 4:43 am EST on Sunday 6 August 2017.

    Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, rain and showers and northwesterly winds are expected during Sunday and Monday. Areas likely to be affected include the Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts and parts of the Central Tablelands, Central West Slopes & Plains and Riverina forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.
     
  26. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    ...........and there I was thinking you might be a smarter person.............RX7 LOLLOLLOLLOL
     
  27. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    LOLOne of my favourite cars of all time, till I got my xkr.
     
  28. Time

    Time Active Member

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    Pfft....Jag man.
     
  29. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    RX7 ..........aka poor mans Porsche lol ............then a Jag ............surely it doesn't get better than that ........Range Rover perhaps ;);););) ................:D:D:D:D
     
  30. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    VERY misleading IMO

    Just so typical of the poor quality of snow reporting in this country
     
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  31. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    It's coming....patience
     
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  32. fmdc9

    fmdc9 Active Member

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    the old fine print conditions apply thing. bit of a joke when 8 go on hold today (including most of blue cow).
     
  33. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    Evoque? Nice car. Great car to drive. Range rover was too big. But lets not forget my old favourite - the bus - Prado 4L ROFL
    :out:
     
    #783 Taipan, Aug 6, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2017
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  35. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    OK CC , back on topic..................I predict storm to hit NSW within 1 hour , batten down guys.
     
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  36. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
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    Hmmm not yet it hasnt
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    5.7mm/hr progged on EC (Hotham). Wouldn't that be nice to witness this arvo...
     
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  38. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    This morning was legit at Hot-ham, 15cm of wind packed fresh. Tomorrow is going to be insane. It is currently puking very dry snow and has been for for hours.
     
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  39. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Just having a look now been offline for a few hours

    Wow has the V8 gone on wind/weather hold too?

    Not often you see that many chairs without at least a few punters on board:

    [​IMG]
     
  40. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    I predict, am prepared to be wrong, the 7.30 am Heavenly Valley chair us going to be all time
     
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic.
     
  42. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    Buller is in for another 7cm overnight from the little bit of moisture over Western Vic right now.
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I'd be very surprised if it's not double that by tomorrow morning, with snow continuing for most of the day after that.
    IMO
     
  44. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    Forum software isn't letting me upload my screen grab but yr.no is suggesting over 30mm of precip for Buller in the next 24 hours.
     
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  45. shred_gnar

    shred_gnar Active Member

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    Any predictions on when freezing level will drop? Driving Cooma to Perisher early tomorrow morning. Might be a long drive in snow
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    That's for Buller.
     
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  47. bengarden

    bengarden Active Member

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    i'm also driving Canberra to mountains leaving 5am. I predict based on Meteye that there is a high likelihood of snow both precipitation and on the road between Cooma and Jindabyne as well as obviously the Alpine Way and rd to Perisher. Gotta watch out for some of those windy bits after Berridale in those conditions......
     
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  48. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Winter at it's best.
    Will not ever get much worse than this on the roads.
    IMO.
     
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  49. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    That hill coming down into East Jindy where you look over the lake will be sketchy as!
     
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  50. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member
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    The stretch between Equestrian Centre and Eucumbene rd catches a lot out.
     
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