Predictions August 24-26th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Aug 17, 2016.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    06Z GFS (not my run of choice... but it's progged Wed/Thurs as below)
    [​IMG]
     
  2. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    49,460
    Likes Received:
    26,118
    They go up around 9am and don't get updated throughout the day. Thus can look quite outdated come afternoon model runs. Whatever EC says tomorrow morning, she's gonna be somewhere in line with that.
     
    The Plowking and POW_hungry like this.
  3. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    872
    Likes Received:
    746
    What is the general consensus as to why 6 days ago the models had a central oz low pressure system bombing thru southern NSW, to now moving thru northern NSW and dropping into the pacific with little to no impact on southern alps? I get that these type of systems are extremely difficult to forecast, but what rolled differently?? Did the position and jostling of all the upper and lower troughs alter the original trajectory?

    Slightly off topic but would it be a fair call to say that with so many Oz climate influencers developing all at the same time, that the models have really struggled at times to get the trajectory, strength and temperature of systems right this winter?

    It's been a bloody weird winter, cold, moist, wet, tropical, Antarctic, windy, yet only average seasonal depth to now.

    Let's all piss off to Hokkaido hey? :rolleyes:
     
    rM788, skiingtk and Wardy like this.
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    Without putting the nail completely into the coffin of this one just yet, the whole structure of it changed/didn't eventuate. You can rewind back to last Wednesday's EC00Z run and compare it with today's EC00Z and it's evident the deep southerly fetch/cut-off feature that was progged for southern WA today; rapidly deteriorated over the weekend. This fetch/jetstream was due to be driver of high-amplitude, cold, polar air into the inland trough that formed over the weekend. Lack of confluence meant the troughs have remained in the Hadley Cell range rather than being dragged south to the mid-lats where we were due to see more interaction.
    IMO, the long end of it is that systems like this, mixing in foreign latitudes, need a lot of energy and precise conditions to have all the ingredients in the bowl, so to speak. Deterioration took hold of one aspect so the whole thing fell over.

    Personally, I think the models have done well this season 3-6 days out at least! GFS has done a particularly good job and successfully challenged EC several times IMO.
    I do however think that the ebb and flow between el nino and an impending la nina scenario has been a tough transition for our season this year.
     
    #304 POW_hungry, Aug 22, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2016
  5. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    872
    Likes Received:
    746
    Thanks POW, that makes perfect sense, simple complexity really. I'm always learning from you guys, bloody appreciate it. I agree that models have at times been as accurate as ever, I guess one tends to forget that 144 plus hours out is always a bit of a gamble for any model. Thanks for your views and wisdom POW :thumbs:
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  6. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2007
    Messages:
    18,648
    Likes Received:
    14,392
    I have to disagree, IMO the models have not worked well this season, in comparison to others.
     
  7. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    322
    Likes Received:
    210
    Can't see much more than 5-10cm IMO (NSW). Pete from Snowatch is still calling 15-25cm though. Will be interesting to see what happens...
     
  8. Wardy

    Wardy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2010
    Messages:
    944
    Likes Received:
    340
    :eek: Look out! :out:
     
    The Plowking, skiingtk and TBay like this.
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    Still reasonable moisture progged on GFS (12Z) for NSW Wed-Fri. Wouldn't call it off for NSW yet.
    [​IMG]
     
    Snowy Joey likes this.
  10. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    14,074
    Likes Received:
    5,795
    Given the variables, invoking 4 day rule -has been pretty good imo.
     
    telecrag, nfip and POW_hungry like this.
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,452
    Likes Received:
    994
    How are the cold uppers and light winds on Access R. Bingo. It actually might stick and thaw out beautifully in the Alpine.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    I wonder where the last 5 to 10 cm will stick. This will deliver because its so cold and long lasting. It will sux every bit of available moisture out of the Atm and turn it to snow where it counts in the Alpine.

    [​IMG]
     
    #312 7wombathead, Aug 23, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2016
    Vermillion and Snowy Joey like this.
  13. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,490
    Likes Received:
    365
    Temps are cold enough. Just too much rain-shadow effect from Tasmania for my liking.

    Good snow-making weather though.
     
  14. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    I still think the moisture will be there on the 25th it should roll in from the N. You have to look at this from a horizontal trough perspective with the lowering height.
     
    Kletterer, POW_hungry and Claude Cat like this.
  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,452
    Likes Received:
    994
    Yep its definitively still there on Wednesday and cold.
    [​IMG]
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    A little different to the "there's going to be soo much snow" call last week.
     
    Vermillion and Jellybeans1000 like this.
  17. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,490
    Likes Received:
    365
    Such a weird season we've been having... Might be the last bit of snow for a while given that next week looks just slightly tropical...
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    It's easy to go "too early" with ECLs and bombing lows. It's like spin the bottle, where it lands nobody knows!
    With these kind of systems, you can be guessing until a day or two out!
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    And I am sure there's no better person that knows this than Jane. I guess I was a little surprised at the over-confident wording in last week's forecast.
     
  20. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    14,074
    Likes Received:
    5,795
    Definitive 'big' calls a week out, don't like.
     
    POW_hungry and skidazza like this.
  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    14,074
    Likes Received:
    5,795
    Has that tendency imo.
    Still appreciate.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  22. mammothjunkie

    mammothjunkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2013
    Messages:
    13
    Likes Received:
    0
    not sure if anyone has noticed (insert "im sure you all have comment) but today shows two totally different forecasts from snowatch & mountianwatch???

    yesterday they were both very similar (as the mostly are) but today snowatch is calling up to 25cm tomorrow for NSW while mountainwatch us calling nill?????
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    Split the difference and you'll be about right ;)
     
    POW_hungry and Vermillion like this.
  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    64,227
    Likes Received:
    16,996
    2 foot storm, mountains of powerade bottles...
     
  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,452
    Likes Received:
    994
    The Cold Pool on Thursday is tracking more over Alps on Access R, which is better for snow IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
    Sprite likes this.
  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,452
    Likes Received:
    994
    High quality snow shown on GFS too. Look for 534.

    [​IMG]
     
    nfip likes this.
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    00Z GFS



    Sadly most of the moisture is on the wrong side of the 540 line.
    I can't see more than 5-10cm for Victorian resorts.
    NSW could fair a bit better - the temperature gradient is not severe and the 500hPa temps are around -24 C; it's just a matter if the moisture gets there. You could see 20-30cm if it works out.

    I do think you'll see snow a fair way north in NSW on Thursday and Friday. Outside possibility as far as QLD on the peaks.

    Mind you EC (this morning shows a fair bit less), so still up in the air. Lets see the EC run tonight.

    IMO
     
    POW_hungry and Snowy Joey like this.
  28. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    4,109
    Likes Received:
    5,125
    Perisher BoM - 6-16 cm snow IMO

    Wednesday 24 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -5
    Max 1
    Early fog. Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Patchy fog in the early morning. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds.

    Sun protection recommended from 10:40 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]


    Thursday 25 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max 1
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely from the late morning. Light winds becoming west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then tending south to southwesterly 25 to 30 km/h in the evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 10:30 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

    Friday 26 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -6
    Max 3
    Partly cloudy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 mm
    Chance of any rain: 5% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light during the morning.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  29. Stiffler

    Stiffler Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2016
    Messages:
    267
    Likes Received:
    193
    Hmm if one was able to predict a day that they were sick am unable to go to work would it be Tomorrow or Thursday?? Oh an located close to FC. Hmm
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    I'd say it will be clearer on Thursday IMO.
     
    skidazza and Stiffler like this.
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    EC has very little for this whole event.
    < 10cm NSW
    < 5cm VIC
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  32. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    533
    Likes Received:
    626
    Just can't see anything at all that would be half special. All over before it starts.
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    8,660
    Likes Received:
    6,787
    I predict that B C will be much fun Saturday.
     
    telecrag, nfip and POW_hungry like this.
  34. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    14,074
    Likes Received:
    5,795
    That seem logical to me
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    AXS-R 00Z Wed/Thursday - Localised falls still progged for Main Range/Brindies.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #335 POW_hungry, Aug 23, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2016
    jeffx likes this.
  36. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    322
    Likes Received:
    210
    I still think NSW ski fields could get a decent shot of snow overnight Wednesday/Thursday. Probably best case scenario, but models are still hinting at something IMO.
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    GFS 00Z (Wed midday to Friday AM)
    [​IMG]
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    GFS is a lot more bullish than EC or even AXS
    IMO
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    In fact, at 24-36 hours out it's the least bit interested of the major models RE: Main Range/Brindabella activity.
    CMC along the lines of AXS.
    [​IMG]
     
  40. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    I think Wednesday is all NSW and thursday+ will be VIC.
    [​IMG]
    Wednesday then the moisture will push south.
     
    Roarkie likes this.
  41. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,324
    Likes Received:
    2,387
    Looking 5cm for VIC at the moment, Main Range has a better chance
     
  42. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    [​IMG]
    I'am working off these figures getting over the ranges , i cant agree @5cm i expect better localised falls then that just have to wait and see.
     
  43. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,324
    Likes Received:
    2,387
    Would love some good localised falls, this system will be all about the observations. I will be providing from Wednesday Night.
     
    jeffx likes this.
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    EC does agree with a shift to Vic via Southerly flow on Thursday. Nothing substantial as pointed out before but it's with keeping an eye on the radar for Baw Baw and the likes...
    Just really remains to be seen if it can skirt Tassie enough, as it's rain shadowing will do no favours IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
    #344 POW_hungry, Aug 23, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2016
    Claude Cat and jeffx like this.
  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    8,660
    Likes Received:
    6,787
    Would it be fair to say the uppers are a little unusual for this ECL ?
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    Well given the cold air and moisture have two different origins, it's a bit of an anomaly but not overly rare IMO.
     
    Claude Cat, Vermillion and Kletterer like this.
  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    64,227
    Likes Received:
    16,996
    If I was a betting man i'd be saying up high at Thredbo could do quite well out of this. Perisher less so, but still +ive. Anywhere else would be looking at dustings, or if they get lucky a bit more, but just thankful it doesnt look like it did a week ago with solid bombing rain.
     
  48. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    27,041
    Likes Received:
    7,937
    Selwyn could do ok out of this...
    Mind you it will need to because next week will be grim
     
  49. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,560
    Likes Received:
    1,661
  50. Juicebiglow

    Juicebiglow Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2015
    Messages:
    79
    Likes Received:
    52
    I observe that normally we would have a predictions thread by now for the end of the month moving into 1st or 2nd of Sept as there is obviously some weather coming through. Why don't we have one ? Is it due to looking like it could shorten the spring fun or will there be some follow up afterwards - excuse it being in the wrong thread....