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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Aug 17, 2016.
06Z GFS (not my run of choice... but it's progged Wed/Thurs as below)
They go up around 9am and don't get updated throughout the day. Thus can look quite outdated come afternoon model runs. Whatever EC says tomorrow morning, she's gonna be somewhere in line with that.
What is the general consensus as to why 6 days ago the models had a central oz low pressure system bombing thru southern NSW, to now moving thru northern NSW and dropping into the pacific with little to no impact on southern alps? I get that these type of systems are extremely difficult to forecast, but what rolled differently?? Did the position and jostling of all the upper and lower troughs alter the original trajectory?
Slightly off topic but would it be a fair call to say that with so many Oz climate influencers developing all at the same time, that the models have really struggled at times to get the trajectory, strength and temperature of systems right this winter?
It's been a bloody weird winter, cold, moist, wet, tropical, Antarctic, windy, yet only average seasonal depth to now.
Let's all piss off to Hokkaido hey?
Without putting the nail completely into the coffin of this one just yet, the whole structure of it changed/didn't eventuate. You can rewind back to last Wednesday's EC00Z run and compare it with today's EC00Z and it's evident the deep southerly fetch/cut-off feature that was progged for southern WA today; rapidly deteriorated over the weekend. This fetch/jetstream was due to be driver of high-amplitude, cold, polar air into the inland trough that formed over the weekend. Lack of confluence meant the troughs have remained in the Hadley Cell range rather than being dragged south to the mid-lats where we were due to see more interaction.
IMO, the long end of it is that systems like this, mixing in foreign latitudes, need a lot of energy and precise conditions to have all the ingredients in the bowl, so to speak. Deterioration took hold of one aspect so the whole thing fell over.
Personally, I think the models have done well this season 3-6 days out at least! GFS has done a particularly good job and successfully challenged EC several times IMO.
I do however think that the ebb and flow between el nino and an impending la nina scenario has been a tough transition for our season this year.
Thanks POW, that makes perfect sense, simple complexity really. I'm always learning from you guys, bloody appreciate it. I agree that models have at times been as accurate as ever, I guess one tends to forget that 144 plus hours out is always a bit of a gamble for any model. Thanks for your views and wisdom POW
I have to disagree, IMO the models have not worked well this season, in comparison to others.
Can't see much more than 5-10cm IMO (NSW). Pete from Snowatch is still calling 15-25cm though. Will be interesting to see what happens...
Still reasonable moisture progged on GFS (12Z) for NSW Wed-Fri. Wouldn't call it off for NSW yet.
Given the variables, invoking 4 day rule -has been pretty good imo.
How are the cold uppers and light winds on Access R. Bingo. It actually might stick and thaw out beautifully in the Alpine.
I wonder where the last 5 to 10 cm will stick. This will deliver because its so cold and long lasting. It will sux every bit of available moisture out of the Atm and turn it to snow where it counts in the Alpine.
Temps are cold enough. Just too much rain-shadow effect from Tasmania for my liking.
Good snow-making weather though.
I still think the moisture will be there on the 25th it should roll in from the N. You have to look at this from a horizontal trough perspective with the lowering height.
Yep its definitively still there on Wednesday and cold.
A little different to the "there's going to be soo much snow" call last week.
Such a weird season we've been having... Might be the last bit of snow for a while given that next week looks just slightly tropical...
It's easy to go "too early" with ECLs and bombing lows. It's like spin the bottle, where it lands nobody knows!
With these kind of systems, you can be guessing until a day or two out!
And I am sure there's no better person that knows this than Jane. I guess I was a little surprised at the over-confident wording in last week's forecast.
Definitive 'big' calls a week out, don't like.
Has that tendency imo.
not sure if anyone has noticed (insert "im sure you all have comment) but today shows two totally different forecasts from snowatch & mountianwatch???
yesterday they were both very similar (as the mostly are) but today snowatch is calling up to 25cm tomorrow for NSW while mountainwatch us calling nill?????
Split the difference and you'll be about right
2 foot storm, mountains of powerade bottles...
The Cold Pool on Thursday is tracking more over Alps on Access R, which is better for snow IMO.
High quality snow shown on GFS too. Look for 534.
Sadly most of the moisture is on the wrong side of the 540 line.
I can't see more than 5-10cm for Victorian resorts.
NSW could fair a bit better - the temperature gradient is not severe and the 500hPa temps are around -24 C; it's just a matter if the moisture gets there. You could see 20-30cm if it works out.
I do think you'll see snow a fair way north in NSW on Thursday and Friday. Outside possibility as far as QLD on the peaks.
Mind you EC (this morning shows a fair bit less), so still up in the air. Lets see the EC run tonight.
Perisher BoM - 6-16 cm snow IMO
Wednesday 24 August
Early fog. Snow showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%
Alpine Area area
Cloudy. Patchy fog in the early morning. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds.
Sun protection recommended from 10:40 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]
Thursday 25 August
Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
Alpine Area area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely from the late morning. Light winds becoming west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then tending south to southwesterly 25 to 30 km/h in the evening.
Sun protection recommended from 10:30 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]
Friday 26 August
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5%
Alpine Area area
Partly cloudy. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light during the morning.
Hmm if one was able to predict a day that they were sick am unable to go to work would it be Tomorrow or Thursday?? Oh an located close to FC. Hmm
I'd say it will be clearer on Thursday IMO.
EC has very little for this whole event.
< 10cm NSW
< 5cm VIC
Just can't see anything at all that would be half special. All over before it starts.
I predict that B C will be much fun Saturday.
That seem logical to me
AXS-R 00Z Wed/Thursday - Localised falls still progged for Main Range/Brindies.
I still think NSW ski fields could get a decent shot of snow overnight Wednesday/Thursday. Probably best case scenario, but models are still hinting at something IMO.
GFS 00Z (Wed midday to Friday AM)
GFS is a lot more bullish than EC or even AXS
In fact, at 24-36 hours out it's the least bit interested of the major models RE: Main Range/Brindabella activity.
CMC along the lines of AXS.
I think Wednesday is all NSW and thursday+ will be VIC.
Wednesday then the moisture will push south.
Looking 5cm for VIC at the moment, Main Range has a better chance
I'am working off these figures getting over the ranges , i cant agree @5cm i expect better localised falls then that just have to wait and see.
Would love some good localised falls, this system will be all about the observations. I will be providing from Wednesday Night.
EC does agree with a shift to Vic via Southerly flow on Thursday. Nothing substantial as pointed out before but it's with keeping an eye on the radar for Baw Baw and the likes...
Just really remains to be seen if it can skirt Tassie enough, as it's rain shadowing will do no favours IMO.
Would it be fair to say the uppers are a little unusual for this ECL ?
Well given the cold air and moisture have two different origins, it's a bit of an anomaly but not overly rare IMO.
If I was a betting man i'd be saying up high at Thredbo could do quite well out of this. Perisher less so, but still +ive. Anywhere else would be looking at dustings, or if they get lucky a bit more, but just thankful it doesnt look like it did a week ago with solid bombing rain.
Selwyn could do ok out of this...
Mind you it will need to because next week will be grim
I observe that normally we would have a predictions thread by now for the end of the month moving into 1st or 2nd of Sept as there is obviously some weather coming through. Why don't we have one ? Is it due to looking like it could shorten the spring fun or will there be some follow up afterwards - excuse it being in the wrong thread....