Predictions August 24-26th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Aug 17, 2016.

  1. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear Active Member

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    Damn it and we just got a nice top up :(
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    That's what I see (posted this AM). Localised is the key word here.
     
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  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Get skiing quickly :thumbs:
     
  4. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    plenty of moisture in the atmosphere circulating.
    [​IMG]
     
  5. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    It looks like a typical ECL now. But I like very much as it will fill in the main range western faces. But I think its not something that I would line a up for a resort day. Looks to be clearing Friday arvo. Could be epic touring conditions Saturday.

    Bom 4 day chart coming into line with the morning charts.

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    IMO, Baw Baw may very well fair best out of the Vic resorts. Southerly flow and certainly cold enough.
    Lack of moisture for Vic suggests it won't be dumping but the outlook look is okay for this date range...
     
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  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    what a beauty that low is south of Albany on Friday........ shame it's peaking there and slip sliding away like most of them have this season!
     
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  8. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I think VIC resorts will be cold, just no moisture. Better than rain damage...
     
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  9. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear Active Member

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    Take that any day :thumbs::thumbs:
     
  10. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Be very carefull of wind-loadings / lee side wind slabs at the moment.
    Some real warnings being put out there by some pretty well respected folk.
    http://www.snowsensebeta.org/
    edit : I realise warnings at present are for East side which (edit = may be) differing from the loading anticipated off this event.
     
    #260 nfip, Aug 22, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2016
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  11. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Thanks nfip. I am not encouraging anybody to go out the western faces and anybody that goes out there needs to take responsibility for themselves.
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Winds are SW, that puts leeward for this event in NE. Not sure why we're suggesting Western face fill...
     
  14. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I agree.

    But Geez it still looks good on Access G. I wish it would stall a day to leave more clearing conditions over the weekend.
     
    #264 7wombathead, Aug 22, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2016
  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    The best lines on the western faces are north facing and work on SW winds.

    The western faces refers to that part (region) of the Snowy Mountains.
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Different date range / different system.
     
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  17. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    looks a very shallow and flat system on the 28th as per EC.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Latest GFS 00Z hinting at an increase in moisture for the alps on Wed/Thurs. All over by Friday.
    GFS calling 15-20cm for NSW IMO.
     
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  19. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I posted my rant about that in BBQ thread
    Too warm for the 28th IMO. Rain Damage very likely.

    I think this system has something for the Main Range (15cm max) but nothing for Victoria
     
  20. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    @7wombathead i tend to think after the 25th system pass. its a new ball game NWers will be crossing the EQ @850 from the N-H don't get much more of a broader scale change than that very tropical.
    [​IMG]
     
  21. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I think the only cold air will slide south as it comes towards the south, leaving tropical air to warm the precipitation and make it rain :(
     
  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Geez I was only replying to Chopps. I have little interest in the 28th apart from BC conditions clearing.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Naughty Chopps ;)
     
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Please elaborate. The chart above is hard on the eyes. Maybe have to BBQ and link to a bit of literature.

    What you are referring to was not that well picked up in advance by GFS and EC as they were both gunning for strong LWT less than 72 hrs ago. So the NE's crossing the equator mean what?

    It seems like the cat is chasing its tail as far as models go at the scale posted above.

    So I guess that you are implying that the tropical gyre will impact on the LWT. I am just guessing, and happy to be enlightened.:nerd:

    These things are important.
     
    #274 7wombathead, Aug 22, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2016
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  25. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    :p
     
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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Now thats exactly what i wanted to hear.
     
  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Was thinking it might have more SE in it if the ECL progresses out of the QLD trough as shown WZ synoptics.
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/synoptic
     
  28. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    BOM really downgraded the duration of this system on their latest forecast. All over by Wednesday basically.
     
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  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  30. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    BOM going for possible snow on NSW CT's, Thursday 1000 M, Friday 900 M,
    Rain / sleet at the moment.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Not really surprising. AXSR going for really chilly uppers for Thursday -2C @850mb/-28C@500mb
    Sydney was frigid today.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #281 POW_hungry, Aug 22, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2016
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC 00Z, really off this one now. Dead in the water. <10cm progged IMO.
    With GFS & AXS in mind I think we can expect 10-15cm at best (NSW).
    [​IMG]
     
    #282 POW_hungry, Aug 22, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2016
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC/YrNo for Perisher (~5cm)
    [​IMG]
    Jane remaining optimistic
    [​IMG]
     
  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Cue Van Morrison baby please dont go
     
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  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Can't see any more than 10cm in it. And mostly in the north.

    IMO
     
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  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    At least the freeze levels are ok
     
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  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I looked at Yr No yesterday was looking like misere...
     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Yr No has been measly for the last week.
     
  39. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    That's commercial forecasting for you...
     
  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Janes forecast isnt updated in the arvo's, guessing that Yr.no meteogram would've updated with the arvo EC run?
     
  41. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    [​IMG]
    I still think NSW could still get 5-10cm, probably best cast scenario though. Cold and dry everywhere else IMO, good for snowmaking at least.
     
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  42. Timmossy

    Timmossy Active Member

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    I'd predict snow making crews would be getting laid off soon :p
     
  43. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    It's simple as that time of the year.....
     
  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Stormcast GFS still showing reasonable moisture wed 4-10 pm for NSW.. Thredbo may do ok. 15- 25 IMO
     
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  45. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah, you're probably right. It's only stamped as 'monday' so not sure what time of day she updates it, but EC has been downgraded since Saturday.
    YrNo. on the other-hand would be off the latest run for sure.
     
  47. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    I cant see the very low almost nil predictions for snow over the alps posted.The upper-level cloud trough should there about's over the convergence= storm trigger with cold sw inflow. I expect interment snow showers with a high prob on Wednesday and lighter showers out to Friday. Not buying the yr or the bone dry official wattle forecast.:)


    [​IMG]
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    So eloquently put @jeffx I am happy to sit back and view from here... By-in-large, it's a very unorthodox system so I too agree some surprises could be found to the north of the VIC/NSW border.
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS 06Z, very much so, supports the deepening trough scenario here.
     
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  50. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Probably mid-September(ish). We're gonna need all the snow we can get for spring :whistle: