Predictions August 1st - 4th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.

  1. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,324
    Likes Received:
    2,387
    Yeah, it doesn't make sense why they make their own NWP if they don't use them. But yes they do EC
     
  2. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,660
    Likes Received:
    7,169
    Yer but it's all in the timing bro.
    It's a fine line.
    This year the vibe (la nina and - 've IOD) we know the moisture was/is coming.
    The temps ??? well that's the lottery
     
    Snowy Joey likes this.
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    Which makes their alpine forecast for this week quite at odds with this.
     
  4. skinavy

    skinavy Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2001
    Messages:
    1,722
    Likes Received:
    943
    Forecast on news tonight was snow to 800m on Tuesday, interesting to see how pans how compared to the collective wisdom of the forum.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    I don't think there's much question that tomorrow will be relatively warm until late afternoon/evening. And it will be cold for most of the week following. The $64000 question is how much moisture will be around beyond tomorrow night.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    Quite conceivable. But there won't be much of it IMO
     
  7. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,660
    Likes Received:
    7,169
    Funny. I had $64,000 in there but subbed ..the vibe :)
    edit - Punter level here... Monday was always going to be borederline prolly bit warmish.
    Later in the day 2200 hrs was looking better.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  8. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    Yeah 100% they do, with the blocking high to the east shown on that GFS model it would make it interesting.
    If the EC shows it after 48hrs then yeah maybe game on.
     
    nfip likes this.
  9. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,035
    Likes Received:
    2,969
    Weather zone does not have hotham above 0 till next Sunday at least after Monday
     
  10. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,324
    Likes Received:
    2,387
    Jane says 600m on Tuesday morning - I don't know where she got that from
     
  11. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    49,460
    Likes Received:
    26,118
    That's not been updated in 2 days.
     
  12. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2012
    Messages:
    3,483
    Likes Received:
    1,875
    The high and the low front are way out of whack IMO. Rain.
     
  13. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    14,074
    Likes Received:
    5,795
    A bit.
    For baw baw.
     
  14. derwent

    derwent Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2014
    Messages:
    651
    Likes Received:
    383
    Could be where the snow pack ends up after tomorrow
     
  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    14,074
    Likes Received:
    5,795
    Guesscast:
    Prefrontal 40mm
    Snow 10 to 15cm overnight Monday into Tuesday followed by fark knows Tuesday evening into Wednesday.
    Buller shouldn't be too affected if the fark knows ecl happens. The rest, possibly.
    But all seems a bit 'off' to me.
     
  16. Gregah

    Gregah Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    17
    Likes Received:
    20
    In a season where a strongly -ve IOD is encouraging cold fronts to penetrate further north this GFS forecast for the 3rd (with the high forming so far south) strikes me as a bit odd...I'd be surprised if it panned out like this.
     
  17. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    1,007
    Likes Received:
    1,171
    Wow, haven't checked the charts since Friday :o

    What a total let down and shift from last week's predictions :(
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  18. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    324
    Likes Received:
    240
    I can't see too much rain on Monday, was supposed too today, clear as. Above 1700 mostly snow or snow showers, so NSW will get more.. I am for Snow.. Vote SNOW..lol
     
    Kappy likes this.
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    As @SAsurfa put it last week, the clear split in the LWT has it on lock. It's ridge and progression seem reasonable to me.[​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    Vermillion and SAsurfa like this.
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    I don't recall the models showing much rain for today. Today was always going to be clear after the overnight rain/snow.
     
  21. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,660
    Likes Received:
    7,169
    #lotsa weather screwing crystal ball.
     
    SAsurfa likes this.
  22. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    1,007
    Likes Received:
    1,171
    Yeah this be the reason..

    Filtered 500 h-Pa 00z +120hr
    [​IMG]
     
  23. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2010
    Messages:
    380
    Likes Received:
    214
    Its becase pokeman why the models are whack
     
    nfip likes this.
  24. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    [​IMG]

    EC ens got some rain.
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,036
    Likes Received:
    5,181
    Majority rainfall, but as it's until 4am Tuesday one could expect some snowfall in that mix above 1400/1500m there also.
     
  26. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    Question is where it goes.
    [​IMG]
     
  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,660
    Likes Received:
    7,169
    Also more important where is it coming from aka da fetch...
     
  28. kiter

    kiter Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2002
    Messages:
    634
    Likes Received:
    137
    Yep I'm looking at the gazillions of charts posted here plus the forecasts and for perisher where I ski looks like some rain and then around 20 cm of snow bit of a net gain but freshies on Tuesday with nice weather and good snow for the rest of the week . Granted hokkaido in Japan it ain't , buy hey it's oz and this isn't too unusual
     
  29. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    Its not a cut off low with Tasman origins, so no eating crow here.
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
    I see BOM forecast now reflects the reality of the models now, rain most of today, a little snow tonight and only a bit following.
     
  31. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2003
    Messages:
    337
    Likes Received:
    169
    Just looked at radar , spot on unfortunately :(
     
  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    49,460
    Likes Received:
    26,118
    talk about late to the party.
     
  33. Luke1993

    Luke1993 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2015
    Messages:
    13
    Likes Received:
    0
    So how much damage is expected to be done? Going up to buller for the weekend and they only just got all lifts rolling.. hate to be boarding on grass
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,660
    Likes Received:
    7,169
    I'm not a bit qualified to make a call , and I value anyone here that adds any of their own insight / knowledge to the discussion.
     
  35. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,324
    Likes Received:
    2,387
    I skied Buller yesterday and I expect a net loss for Buller. Aka 22 lifts won't be rolling next weekend IMO
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    64,227
    Likes Received:
    16,996
    Probably dont need to look at the cams today.
     
  37. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    4,411
    Likes Received:
    2,435
    and it was over

    Do do do

    Before it begun......
     
  38. GnuDad

    GnuDad Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2000
    Messages:
    74
    Likes Received:
    3
    Is there a link for these meteograms? I couldn't see it in the weather links sticky thread.
    Thanks.
     
  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    49,460
    Likes Received:
    26,118
    Google yr. no and the resort you require as in....
    yr. no Mount Hotham
     
    GnuDad likes this.
  40. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    4,411
    Likes Received:
    2,435
  41. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2003
    Messages:
    9,777
    Likes Received:
    4,532
    Once you have found it.
    Delete it.

    It will only cause further Aussie snow depression syndrome
     
    GnuDad, Claude Cat and mick chopps like this.
  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,660
    Likes Received:
    7,169
    or then insert Baw Baw and you'll feel better.
     
  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    49,460
    Likes Received:
    26,118
    I was gonna say take with a grain of salt.
     
  44. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    321
    Likes Received:
    387
    I would hide ones head in the salt until around the 10th of Aug. Not going to look very good on the hills for a while and im trying to be positive. La Nina wet and warm is winning over the Olympic year vibe. :(
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    91,246
    Likes Received:
    27,968
  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    49,460
    Likes Received:
    26,118
    calm your farm. 1st of August, 1m of snow on the ground.
     
    Portski and 1st_King_of_QBN like this.
  47. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    324
    Likes Received:
    240
    Never over till the fat lady sings and no fat ladies around Mt P this year.. Snow tonight.. 1.43 on the deck and we are going on. Base is in place , Glad to see PV outside the rain area!!
     
  48. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    Well it has snowed today i was wrong, obviously its not to warm.
    [​IMG]
     
    nfip and Claude Cat like this.
  49. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    321
    Likes Received:
    387
    The fact is that its not looking very good for another nine days (at the moment), on top of the stretch since Thursday last week. imo
     
  50. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    321
    Likes Received:
    387
    im also happy. I was sitting back worried we would get another big rain event today/tomorrow. Touch wood, thats not going to happen.