Predictions August 10th - 15th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Aug 1, 2016.

  1. IAB

    IAB Addicted Member
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    Is this just a 9th / 10th / 11th system or are people seeing snow beyond 11th?
     
  2. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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    same call was made out spoin/nelse way over the weekend. pretty fierce on most leeward/protected slopes.
     
  3. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Hopecast for 19th has nice shape at the moment , tho rather warm before it but that's for another thread.
     
  4. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Check this out for hopecast

     
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  5. IAB

    IAB Addicted Member
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    Thanks, I was confused because the dates of this thread go out to Aug 15th.
     
  6. Jeffhab

    Jeffhab Just Registered

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    View the current warnings for Victoria

    Forecast issued at 5:40 am EST on Tuesday 9 August 2016.

    Weather Situation
    A large high pressure system southeast of Tasmania extends a ridge northwards to the New South Wales coast and will continue to drift eastwards across the Tasman Sea during Tuesday. A strong cold front will enter western Victoria Tuesday afternoon, crossing to eastern areas by Wednesday morning and will be followed by a cold unstable westerly airstream on Wednesday. A high pressure system will move over South Australia late Wednesday then over New South Wales on Thursday.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/northeast.shtml

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in the Central, South West, North Central and parts of the East Gippsland, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 10:56 am Tuesday, 9 August 2016.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    Strong northerly winds are expected on Tuesday ahead of a cold front which will enter western Victoria during the afternoon and cross the State overnight.







    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 to 100 km/h are forecast on Tuesday over parts of the Wimmera, Southwest, Central and North Central districts. Elevated areas are most at risk. The risk of damaging winds is expected to contract to Alpine areas of West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and the Northeast district during Tuesday evening with peak gusts reaching 110 km/h.



    Locations most at risk include Hamilton, Colac, Kyneton, Ballarat, Bacchus Marsh, Mansfield, Corryong and all Alpine resorts.

    Highest wind gusts recorded to 10am Tuesday include:
    104 km/h at Mount William at 9:19am
    89 km/h at Melbourne Airport at 5:41am





    The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
    * Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
    * Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony;
    * Keep clear of fallen power lines;
     
  7. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Going to be windy in the NSW Snowies

    [​IMG]

    IDN20032
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    New South Wales

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in parts of the
    South West Slopes,
    Snowy Mountains and
    Australian Capital Territory Forecast Districts.


    Issued at 9:51 am Tuesday, 9 August 2016.

    SEVERE WIND NSW ALPS TUESDAY

    SYNOPTIC SITUATION:
    Strengthening northwest winds Tuesday evening ahead of a cold front expected to move through the area Wednesday afternoon.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 65 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are expected in alpine areas above 1200 metres from Tuesday evening through to Wednesday morning. Winds averaging 80 km/h with peak gusts exceeding 120 km/h are possible on peaks above 1900 metres.
    *
    Winds are expected to ease during Wednesday.



    Locations which may be affected include Perisher Valley, Charlotte Pass, Thredbo, Cabramurra, Selwyn and Adaminaby.
     
  8. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    haha.
    I see you've omitted the model that quote was posted with (a fkn week ago!)... Nice way to take it out of context.
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Quick clearing trend come Thursday.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    20-30 up high if lucky. nice top up
     
  12. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Latest ACCESS-R a bit of a downgrade for me.

    5-10mm pre-frontal than 10-15cm post..
     
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  13. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
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    Not sure what resort you are referring to, but for Hotham, the 4.30pm update is suggesting 15/40mm for Wed vs 5.30am which was 10/30mm?
     
  14. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Ah sorry yeah Perisher / Main Range
     
  15. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Good to see temps dropping across NSW before the moisture! Maybe all snow..
     
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  16. spottedreptile

    spottedreptile Active Member
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    Thank you for that stunning footage.
     
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  17. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Looks like NSW is going fare better in this than VIC IMO
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I reckon you can probably rob peter to pay paul here, so to speak.
    The 24hr AXSR has predominately rain progged, but think realistically it's got about 3-4 hours of snow in it until it's expiry at 1000hrs.
    IMO snow for the resorts proper from 6am tomorrow.
     
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  19. IAB

    IAB Addicted Member
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    So far this system has delivered nothing but rain (NSW). What do people think will happen tonight and into tomorrow?

    Not a prediction I know but it's as quiet as in here.
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Cold air still on the way for NSW.
    Check the satellite.
    Also prolly been some chat in the Obs thread from the Vicco crew on temps down there way.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in the South West and parts of the Central, East Gippsland, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 10:47 am Wednesday, 10 August 2016.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    Strong north to northwesterly winds are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon over southwest Victoria with the passage of a cold front, reaching the Melbourne area this evening and the east tonight.

    Winds averaging 50 to 60 km/h with DAMAGING peak gusts of around 90 km/h are forecast to develop during Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Southwest, Wimmera, Central, West and South Gippsland districts, and over Alpine parts of the Northeast and Gippsland districts tonight. Strongest wind gusts will most likely be associated with heavy showers or thunderstorms with coastal areas most at risk.

    Severe weather is no longer occurring in the North Central district and the warning for this district is CANCELLED.

    [​IMG]
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS 00z has precip downgraded for tonight (inline with AXS yesterday). 5-10cm for the majors now IMO.
    All cleared out by tomorrow daybreak.

    We've certainly been short changed by the models this time around...
     
  23. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I stuck my neck out when I said maybe 20 tonight. More like maybe 10 cm.
     
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Satellite looks okay. Not much after this one.

    [​IMG]
     
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  25. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    I think there is a bit of juice in it.
    Still looking like a decent 15 maybe 20cm IMO.
     
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  26. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Long time between drinks
     
  27. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    We can upgrade for $99
     
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  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Remnants of the embedded trough was on the charts this morning but no more.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Passed over Mt Gambier about 1-1.5hours ago. Western Vic radar starting to flare up a little.
     
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  31. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Short sharp pasteing if there's anything left by the time it gets to the Alps.
     
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  32. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I use a lot of drinks.
     
  33. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    Beggars can't be choosers at this stage.
     
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  34. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Normal programming has resumed. :)
     
  35. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Callsign :::fizzer ::: code ::: census 2016 , next week
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Another downgrade this arvo on AXS, gives proof you can't trust a model even in the dying hours.
    From this (published Monday):
    [​IMG]
    To this, published this arvo:
    [​IMG]
    We'll be lucky to get 5-8cms here tonight.
     
  37. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    What a difference a 1000klm south makes. Time to start shipping all mainland landfill to Tassy and dumping it dead centre. Build it up to 3000m and we are sorted.

    Tassy economy fixed.

    Back on topic:out:
     
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  38. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Agree with @POW_hungry and any resort to score 10cm overnight will be doing well. 5cm looks the likely outcome IMO
     
  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    You could
    goto NZ
     
  40. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Missed called this one.