Predictions August 10th - 15th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Aug 1, 2016.

  1. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    has done with nearly every system this year.
     
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  2. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    A couple have.
    But this coming node is not even good for vic surf. The last few have been very well aligned fetch wise. WSW etc. But alas this is a snow forum, and this system looks pretty meh for that too.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC still fairly consistent with a 20-30cm system for the 10-11th.
    GFS all over the place still. It's liking the 13th-14th at the moment, but that will change with the next run.
    IMO
     
  4. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    I still think it's the days after this time period that hold the most promise, but that's just a hunch really
     
  5. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    ECMWF

    Thanks for the link driftwood

    Yep I like the 10th and 11th too.

    [​IMG]

    Stable high proged for the 14th. I like.

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Driftwood

    Driftwood Active Member

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  7. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

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    Actually i said it would not snow on the Monday and yeah it did.:)

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    Temps in the eastern highlands, over that period, lower considerably as per EC as others have said maybe a v/good dump. :fishing: note to this cold at 2m suggests a strong cold front.
     
    #107 ColdFronts, Aug 5, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2016
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  8. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

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    [​IMG]

    R/Wave also modeled to be over the SE of the continent in the time period.
     
  9. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    Ramifications?
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    00Z GFS starting to look a bit like EC for the 10/11th

    [​IMG]

    And it certainly "out there" 14th

    [​IMG]

    I think that will certainly change.
    IMO
     
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  11. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

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    It has been known to correlate with some of the alpines best snow depths providing the CFS verify.
     
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  12. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]

    NAVGEM looks cold for 10th, but suggests the bulk of the precipitation is on the 9th Afternoon
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Looks really cold when the front hits but a bit of prefrontal in there. Only NAVGEM though.
    Up to 60cm and if EC is right, we could be in for some low level snow IMO
     
  13. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Most Charts are Looking like Low Level Snow in parts of NSW and VIC. I am guessing 60cm given the information we have. Looking Blizzard like too. Wait for CFS for hopefully great news
     
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  14. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC 00Z

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Looking much better on EC than previous runs.
    I certainly don't see any low level snow or falls of that magnitude (60cm?!).

    EC not on board with the 13/14th, GFS clutching straws there.
     
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  17. Marty_McSly

    Marty_McSly Addicted Member
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    I'm inclined to agree with you.

    Every year since 2009 I've been at Perisher just before the season's best. We go home on the 17th, so I can confidently predict that the best of this season will be between the 17th and the end of August.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  19. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

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    00z ECMWF Full-Res [Tco1279]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    13-14 bigger cold pool!!!
     
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  20. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    This thread needs to be chopped to the 12th and another started for 12-18th as it looks like completely different systems (spag sure about that much) imo
     
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  21. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    We arrive on the 19 August... It will be great!~ Its great now..
     
  22. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    This is the peak of the season as others had said. Whatever we get in the next two systems will decide whether we get a 1.75m Season or a 2.25m Season
     
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  23. Driftwood

    Driftwood Active Member

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    BOM has upgraded the juice this morning with a nice tropical feed. Temps warm up a tad as a result. Uppers still look okay.

    [​IMG]
     
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  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Touch wood with respect to chart above.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #124 7wombathead, Aug 6, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2016
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  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    GFS calling the pre-frontal as snow up high, with 546 line crossing the Mts at the same time as moisture.
     
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  26. Driftwood

    Driftwood Active Member

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    Way too early for this chart, however, GFS is in favour of some cold air advection @ 500hpa at the time. Fingers crossed.

    [​IMG]
     
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    10/11 looking a bit flat today IMO

    [​IMG]

    14/15 looking better though
    [​IMG]
     
  28. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    #underwhelmed with this morning runs.
     
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  29. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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  30. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    If yes/no was accurate, we would have a 3-4m base by now :cheers:
     
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  31. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Access G really has a nice big fetch too.

    [​IMG]
     
  32. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Looking really good tonight on AC G

    [​IMG]
     
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  33. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I Can only remember one 3 m base and that was in 1992. Were on the way that for sure but maybe not all the way, but
     
  34. Driftwood

    Driftwood Active Member

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  35. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    ^^^thats this morns 12Zrun. The 00z is better imo (and has duration) :)
     
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  36. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Friday on the BOM movie certainly is interesting, long narrow high
    iday
     
  37. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    1964, 1981



     
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  38. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG] GFS is GFS suggesting a prefrontal event and four fronts in eight days. But it doesn't look like the temps are that promising IMO.
    [​IMG]
    EC better than GFS for for 10th but no cold air for the fronts after that.
    Overall, I am starting to think of more rain than snow:(. Happy to be proven wrong though.
     
  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I did not see those ones. I remember first trip to Thredbo in Sept 1992. The base has never been close to it since.
     
  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    nah it will be sweet.

    [​IMG]
     
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  41. Driftwood

    Driftwood Active Member

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    Janes forecast on Friday was for up to 10mil of prefrontal followed by 10-20cm of the good stuff. Yesterday appeared to have a boost in moisture with temps also warming. Some charts last night suggested more warming before the 10th so it may be difficult to prove you wrong. I can see why others were off this system from the start and yesterday, IMO, had a best case scenario vibe to it. The low entering the bight needs to push up a lot of cold air over the next 48 hrs.
     
    #141 Driftwood, Aug 7, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2016
  42. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    The Moisture is definitely there but the temps is what we need to line up now IMO
     
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  43. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    GFS Prefrontal

    [​IMG]

    GFS Snow. 15-20 Vic 10-15 NSW imo

    [​IMG]
     
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  44. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    This period is really not exciting me that much IMO, still looks pretty flat and perhaps peaking too early on EC then sliding.....

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  45. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I think a small amount of pre frontal rain Tuesday night tending to snow Wed morning. Then a more substantial system on Wed night with about 20 cm max before clearing Thursday.
     
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  46. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Mainly NW Winds on 10th- That can't be good for Buller
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO looking like 10-20mm prefrontal (could be snow above 1900m) starting late on the 9th before turning to snow mid morning on the 10th.
    Looks good for 20-30cm.
     
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  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Winds are westerly on 10th- Good for everywhere but Buller. Also Baw Baw and Selwyn look like they will get r**n. NSW looks like 20-30, VIC looks like 10-20cm, Buller and BB looks like 50-70mm of sleet/rain IMO. Hoping the wind will change a bit.
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Maybe even before mid-morning CC? GFS 00Z has resort snow possibly as early as 3-4am. There's some instability/shear in there around that time also. Not too much to squabble over anyway I guess, with the bulk of the snow arriving Wednesday night.
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Yes, certainly possible