Predictions August 10th - 15th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Aug 1, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    The 10/11 has looked like producing something for a few days now.
    Looks relatively weak at this stage though.
    IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    GFS has also a huge system at the 14th, but a long way out now
     
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  2. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    i observe the progged peaking has moved east...
     
  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Wait til EC and GEM comes out and then we have some comparison
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    GFS has follow-up on 14th as a big event, but it's all pie in the sky stuff being GFS @300hrs out.
     
    #4 POW_hungry, Aug 1, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    That is the EC 00Z run. But it has been on EC and GEM for the last few days. Check back in a week I reckon.;)
     
    #5 POW_hungry, Aug 1, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
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  6. Timmossy

    Timmossy Active Member

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    Methinks I just needa turn off from these threads until 2 days in advance to stop the super excitement and follow up super disappointment of current event.

    BACK ON TOPIC :out:
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    If you're chasing optimistic, glossy-front-page-news-headline weather predictions maybe head over to Mountainwatch or Snowatch... Monitoring weather models 'aint the best for an optimist.
     
  8. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    My eyes are broken ;)
     
  9. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    The Frog thinks it will only provide a few cms on the 10th. Apparently he came from these forums, is he still lurking around here somewhere? :woohoo:
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    You could just not read the thread until 2 days out?
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Admittingly the ensembles have this period looking pretty 'ridgy'.
     
  12. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    The leadup doesn't look too good to me. At the very least getting quite warm. Much rain?
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    8th & 9th look marginal at this stage. IMO
    But not catastrophic either.
     
  14. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    Thanks. Was going to have a few days off from next Monday. May take a punt on the week after instead. Looks promising at this stage. As it always does this far out on GFS. SOT. ;)
     
    #14 PMG, Aug 1, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
  15. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Or just accept it for what it is. We are basically using super computers to crunch massive amounts of data to help us predict the future of an infinetly complex system.

    Its quite relaxing once you realise that at any point in the future, the weather is going to be what it will be and it was always going to be that way.

    It is our human nature that drives us to try and predict a system that really doesn't care what we think or what our computer models say.

    Its the beauty in the complexity and every day we get to try again.
     
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  16. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    There's something about the end of the spag that I feel has the vibe (just outside these dates though)
     
  17. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Nothing much on spag for anything in the next 2 weeks. Expect that to change.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Super weak on all the major models this morning. Some pre-frontal rain and quick little system progged for the 10th at the moment.
    CMC & GFS like the 14th but EC going with a blocking high - No alignment here.
     
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    I got not much on my charts.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looking ridged out on GFS today

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    And marginal on EC
    (IMO)

    [​IMG]
     
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    I guess the highs are not particularly big or strong, so that gives us some hope.
     
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  23. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    I am going to be the first to take a guess at the snowfall- Maybe 20-30mm before and 5-15cm in Snow IMO. Of course it is early days but the factors are not great for a dump
     
  24. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    ^^ Inland Heat lows already forming in Northern WA. That's a bit early....
     
  25. Wardy

    Wardy Well-Known Member

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    Zen...
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS looks whack for this period now.

    [​IMG]
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Peaking too early & ridging out on EC
    [​IMG]

    Potentially 20-30mm rain below 1800m on the 10th. :(
     
  28. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

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    ENS not looking to bad alot can change but par for more atm.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    ^^ That looks weak to me for EC @234hrs out.
    14th virtually gone also on all the majors.

    Tropo has it looking 'ok' at best. If I were a betting man I would be looking beyond the next 2-3 weeks.
    [​IMG]
     
  30. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Look beyond that
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Thanks God.
     
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  32. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

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    Is that GFS? THO no model @240 is to be trusted. Call it as i see it i dont use others forecasts.
     
    #32 ColdFronts, Aug 2, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2016
  33. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    We all saw how quickly the models flipped late last week.
    I wouldn't give up hope on this date range just yet. IMO
     
    #33 loweee, Aug 2, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2016
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  34. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Is now
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    My understanding is it's from numerous agencies, much like an ensemble.

    That said, I completely agree. My point is really relating to not much on the horizon EC/GFS/AXS... or otherwise. At least not much picked up by the models yet. No alignment whatsoever.
     
  36. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

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    Dont understand Is now.

    I dont have any faith in the Mancini model the whole prog is being scraped and replaced.
     
  37. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    It's only GFS, but, it's look rather pinappleish dropping down from the north on the 13th. :(

    [​IMG]
     
  38. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    So you don't like the Tropopause Theta. I beg to differ as it shows where the fronts are around the Antarctic. This information and SAM or AAO provides a guide to long range forecasters like me. Then you have to apply all the other factors. It is hard to predict long term storms and even harder to predict long term snow.
     
  39. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Yep proves one thing!
     
  40. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

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    Strong Cold front. BTW jelly trump is a D-HEAD.

    [​IMG]
     
    #40 ColdFronts, Aug 2, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2016
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    EC 00Z going for 10AUG:
    • +1012hPa for mainland alps
    • 70km/h winds (@850hPa)
    • Central pressure (961hPa) in the mid-50S (!)
    • FL of ~2000m
    • 192hrs out...
    ...Sorry, it's hardly a "strong front" for SE Aus mainland.
     
  42. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Doesn't look awfully cold or strong. The Central Pressure is too far away.
    BTW I hate Trump mate, Go to the Bear Pit if you want to talk politics.
     
  43. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    This punter feels it's peaking too early Tuesday over the Bight for now.
    Now back to my day job ;)
     
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  44. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    EC markedly different this morning

    I'm starting to fear a merry-go-round like the last period.

    Looks like starting with a day of considerable clear stuff, but after that....
     
  45. IAB

    IAB Addicted Member
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    Snowatch likes it this morning for 14th - 16th.
     
  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Still not seeing much for 10-14th.
     
  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Thanks. At least I dont need to bother checking long range GFS this morning.
     
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  48. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    LOL I checked it. It likes.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Mmmmm wwwwesterlies

    IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    okay for some.... not so much for others.
     
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