Predictions 8-12th May

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Apr 27, 2016.

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  1. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Haha awesome video
     
  2. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
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    If this system comes off close to those numbers above, it'll be welcomed by our storages. Dartmouth is at 43%, Eildon at only 30%. Some good flows into the dams to kick things off and set up for some runoff leading into winter will be ideal.
    Thomson today sits at 59%, so it's looking good.
     
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  3. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member
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    Rainfall east of the great divide will not be significant.
    Mt Buffalo may crack the ton get the chocolates for highest rainfall score.
    Vic Northeast rivers will get a very good flush and hopefully this could get the Murray river algae a start in breaking down.
    In my opinion,heavy rainfall and then a freeze is the best set up for base building this time of year.
    Looking good for next week.
     
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  4. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Yes its what the SE and west of the divde need ATM a soaking rain bit of snow up high for high NSW and cool things down for a weeks later cold front
     
  5. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Will be a welcome drop along the wheat belt after last weeks moistener. Last weekends rain was the first decent rain for us in around 3 months. Lawn picked up nicely this week as a result. Just in time for its winter slumber.
     
  6. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Yeah , would be good to get some decent follow up after the little bit last weekend. My dams are still at criticle levels but most of this seasons sale stock have already gone so its managable for a little longer.
     
  7. vibe++

    vibe++ Well-Known Member
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    Our dam is pretty empty lucky I've got a good source of water via my spear point in the river
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Latest GFS run has the 540 line well up to the alps, indeed the 534 line getting there next Wednesday.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  10. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Tues-Thurs might surprise
     
  11. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Mate of mine is heading up to Dartmouth on Saturday for a fish. Picked the right day, I saw 40-80mm forecast from weatherzone for Sunday!
     
  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    sw'ly, would suit Baw Baw as suggested by Majik the other day, if cold enough.
     
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    This would be a solid go in mid July!
    [​IMG]
     
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  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Tassie highlands lookout!
     
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  16. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Big rain event across much of the country.
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Look whats coming next week a bit stronger and colder imo
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    BOM media release:

    Significant rainfall forecast for all states and territories this weekend

    Significant rainfall is expected in parts of all states and territories this Mother's Day weekend, extending into early next week.

    Bureau National Operations Centre Director Dr Andrew Tupper said the Bureau of Meteorology is expecting a significant deep low pressure system to develop rapidly in the northern Great Australian Bight, as a cold front moves north from the Southern Ocean and combines with an extensive cloud band over northwestern Australia.

    "This is the first widespread rainfall this autumn and a welcome start for the southern crop and pasture growing season," Dr Tupper said.

    "However, it is an unusually large scale weather event across Australia, and significant weather events also carry some measure of risk. "Whatever your plans for this weekend — whether inland, near a river, on a coast, or on the sea — we advise members of the public to pay close attention to official forecasts and warnings, including flood warnings.

    "Go to www.bom.gov.au for the latest warnings and stay tuned for media broadcasts for up-to-date information in your area."

    Western Australia

    The cloud band is predicted to bring heavy falls of rain to parts of the Eastern Pilbara, Kimberley and Interior districts of Western Australia on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Falls in excess of 50mm are possible, with some isolated falls of up to 100 mm forecast.

    These falls are not typical for this time of the year, and may lead to some localised flooding.

    This rain is in contrast to the recent Wet Season in the Kimberley, which was the driest for 11 years.

    During Saturday the cold front is expected to produce rain in the south west of the state, including Perth, but falls are not expected to exceed 20 mm. The cloud band is expected to clear WA on Monday.

    Northern Territory

    The Bureau is forecasting rainfall in the order of 100 mm to 150 mm across southern parts of the Northern Territory between Friday to Sunday.

    This is shaping up to be on par with the major widespread rainfall event of early 2011, and will be welcome news to pastoralists in central Australia.

    Record rainfall in Yulara is likely, with the previous monthly record for May being 109.6 mm in 1988.

    A Flood Watch is current for the Western and Eastern Inland Rivers. Widespread areas of flooding are expected in the Tanami, Lasseter and Simpson districts over the weekend. This is expected to affect road access in many parts with some roads becoming impassable. Some communities may also become isolated.

    Alice Springs is likely to see some heavy rainfall over the weekend, with current forecasts suggesting 50 mm to 100 mm, which may start the Todd River flowing.

    South Australia

    Two main rainfall events are forecast for South Australia. The first will accompany the rain band arriving in South Australia on Saturday, followed by significant showers associated with a low pressure system on Monday.

    Rain will extend to most of the state. The heaviest falls of between 50 to 70 mm during the weekend are expected in the North East Pastoral district.

    The showers associated with the low pressure system will possibly be heavy at times over the agricultural areas overnight on Sunday and Monday.

    Adelaide is expected to receive rainfall of between 20 to 50 mm as a result of both the rain and the showers, with possible higher falls in the Adelaide Hills.

    Rainfall totals for over the Mt Lofty Ranges will peak in the range of 50 to 70 mm.

    Queensland

    The rain band will approach southwest Queensland on Sunday, bringing with it isolated thunderstorms through the western districts. Areas southwest of Urandangi (south of Mount Isa) to Bollon can expect moderate to heavy rainfall on Sunday and Monday.

    Widespread totals of 25 to 50 mm are likely with isolated falls of 50 to 100 mm possible.

    Areas of thundery rain over the interior will decrease to showers and then eventually clear from the west on Monday.

    New South Wales and ACT

    On Sunday and Monday a low pressure trough will move through areas west of the Divide and produce widespread rain over these areas.

    At this stage the heaviest falls are expected for the southern NSW slopes and Alpine region, with forecast totals broadly in the range of 50 to 100mm, and isolated locations potentially receiving in excess of 150mm.

    Totals expected further north and west are in the range of 25 to 50mm, with isolated locations receiving 80mm. Significantly less rain is expected to the east of the Divide.

    The Bureau will monitor the situation and revise totals as new information becomes available.

    There is also a risk for damaging winds. This risk is greatest over the southern alpine peaks from late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

    Victoria

    Heavy rain is forecast along the northeast ranges, with two-day totals from Sunday through Monday expected to be in the range 50 to 100 mm, reaching as high as 150 mm about more exposed alpine peaks. As a result, minor flooding may develop from Monday.

    Elsewhere, 20 to 30 mm is possible through western and southern Victoria and Melbourne, with 50 to 75 mm across remaining parts of northern and northeast Victoria.

    Tasmania

    Tasmania has seen a succession of strong cold fronts already during the past week.

    Cloud bands associated with a low pressure system are forecast to produce five to 10 mm of rain over northwest Tasmania on Saturday, but less than two mm in the southeast.

    On Sunday, showers are expected over most of the state with falls between two and 10 mm. Heavier rain is forecast for Monday, with up to 60 mm possible in the northwest.
     
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    00 UTC GFS run not nearly as good as this mornings. IMO
     
  20. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    It will bounce back again in the morning.
     
  21. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    In what terms?
    Rain over the weekend or snow potential for next week?
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Snow next week. Not as cold and less damp when it matters.
     
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  23. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Ok good.
    Not worrying about snow at this stage.
    Lets just get those rainfall totals up.


    We can worry about snow in June
     
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  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I never worry
     
  25. smackies

    smackies Addicted Member
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    It's only January May.
     
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  26. bengarden

    bengarden Active Member

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    Surely late Autumn building a base is not a bad idea? In Hokkaido they are looking at opening last month of Autumn so even here if they want to open early June then some snow on the ground mid May is never a bad thing. If it only starts snowing in actual winter it will be a late start to things.........The temps are way to warm still for my liking. Frickin 23 here in Canberra today in May. Well well above average. No frosts yet either
     
  27. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Any snow that falls in the next week wont stay.
    unless you get a crazy storm dropping 30cm+, anything that falls this time of the year wont stick aroundd, its still to warm, always is this time of year.
    All the ingredients are there for a good year, including those vibes and historical phenomena (eg: The Olympic year theory).
    Wake me up in a month and ill start to get the snow system itch.
     
  28. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Snow now can as easily stay as go. The sooner it cools down the better. Snow making can start and we can be on The V8 in early June having fun.
     
  29. bengarden

    bengarden Active Member

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    So the vibe in Australia is there is no point getting any snow in Autumn? Why don't the resorts only open end of June/early July then? If they hope to open early June then there has to be some kind of base before then........Or should we just accept that the ski season in Australia is 2 months July and August. No wonder prices are so high
     
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  30. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Pretty much.

    Opening weekend has always been queens birthday mid June. Its rare to have a decent base by then, any stats that show there was skiing this weekend would be due to a nicely timed system a week before, 2 max.
    Early-mid July through August extending to early September on good years is the actual Aussie (Natural) snow season.
     
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  31. bengarden

    bengarden Active Member

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    i kinda knew that. Its just depressing to actually realise there's really only 2 months in the whole year for decent skiing here and anything else is pure luck. Anyways, it is what it is and I always get some amazing days in OZ if I time it right. Back on topic, we have actually had our heating on last day or so here in the mornings at least. 1.4 degrees at 7am in Canberra. The max temps in the afternoons have still been really warm though, 22 here today. Bring on some icey weather.....
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Flood Summary
    Issued at 3:50 pm EST on Friday 6 May 2016.
    The following Watches/Warnings are current:

    Flood Watch for North East Victoria (Upper Murray, Mitta Mitta, Kiewa, Ovens and King Catchments)
    Flood Watch for the Goulburn and Broken Basins
     
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  33. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    BOM has rainfall top end at over 170mm and snow to 1700m at Thredbo Top but temp too high the Main Range could get over a metre
     
  34. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
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    The NE warning looks solid. Widespread totals for the two days of 100mm, possible falls of 150mm.
    Goulburn and Broken catchments a little less, with 50+ predicted.
    Those falls are going to be very welcome for the catchments.
     
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  35. snowduck

    snowduck Dedicated Member
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    Isobars around the low appear tightly bunched. How strong are the winds expected to become in SA/VIC/NSW ?
     
  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    super gale
     
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  37. Bloke

    Bloke Dedicated Member

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    Wow. When was the last time the BOM put out a release like that?
     
  38. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    This could be like a cyclone over Tassie.
     
  39. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture
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    Still not cold enough to stick imo

    This is tues onwards
     
  40. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    those winds could do some freaky local stuff
     
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  41. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    It's a rain event.
    And a much needed one.
     
  42. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Would be an interesting system in Mid July August.
    Not low freezing temps, but some solid accumulation above????? any guesses??? My feeling would be 1650-1700m
     
  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    NSW event
     
  44. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    I will be very happy if the forcast rain totals actually eventuate. Looking at 50 - 100mm for my area but my gut tells me I will be lucky to see even the 50mm. Being so close to the hills I have found over many years that places 50km west of me get more from these events. Dont really have a scientific reasoning for it but my old man used to say the front had to dump some weight to climb the hills. Sounds ridiculous but.......it happens time and time again.
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Plenty of scientific basis for this.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orographic_lift
     
  46. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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  47. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Do you get much snow on the west side of the range when cold fronts come
     
  48. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Ploughs and seederss going full tilt today between Parkes and Grenfell.
     
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  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Tiny bit of frost at Kambah. I stopped the car to take a look.
     
  50. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Sometimes the far eastern area of my property gets a little dusting , such as we did in 2014 during snowmageddon or last year with the arctic vortex event. It has to be a major system because in general we are much too low.
     
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