Predictions 30th Jun - 2nd Jul System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Jun 22, 2016.

  1. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Moves through pretty fast. Its going to get windy (Thursday night/Friday morning)
     
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  2. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    I'm interested in this again... This will be ultra last minute decision making...
     
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  3. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    wind is good. wind blows a heap more than the 20cm that will fall into any NE-SE facing bowls... One in particular that I have in mind.
     
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  4. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim Well-Known Member

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    Well it's certainly bloody cold in Perth as this one comes through. Short and sharp though.
     
  5. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Still good for 30cm across NSW for me..

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Interestingly, GFS is playing down the moisture content.

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Yeah lets hope 3-day wins out, it did last week.
     
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  8. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Has everyone been spoiled by last weeks early burst of winter. I still think with 850's at -2 and this much moisture we will get a nice little top up for the weekend.
     
  9. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    BOM has upped Falls Creek to 30mm on Thursday with a max of -1. Sounds ok to me.
     
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  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO 20cm feels about right. Some spots might get a little more and others a little less.
    Seems to turn Westerly as the precipitation moves through, so Buller might struggle a little.
     
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  11. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    BOM thinking NSW CT's possibly 1000M on Friday
     
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  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    BOM definitely liking the cold air heading over the OzzyAlps.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/snowy.shtml

    Even through this is a smaller system than last Friday. It will target the higher mountains as opposed to all all the lower ranges like last week.
     
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  13. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    This time last year we would have been jumping for joy with a forecast of 20cm. Perisher was 11.4c
     
  14. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Yeah thats a pretty bullish prediction by the BOM.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/fallscreek.shtml

    FALLS
    "Areas of morning fog. Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Winds northerly 25 to 35 km/h turning west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon and evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 5 and 10."
     
  15. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    540 line will be pushing up into NSW. [​IMG]
     
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  16. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    When they forecast a Max of 10 for Wang with rain it can't be all bad.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I am not sure why, but BOM forecast for "Falls Creek", is in fact a cut/paste from the NE area HERE. Seems the precip & temps are relevant but not sure why they tailor a scripted forecast for Buller/Hotham and then cut/paste for Falls.
    That said I think their area forecast & snow level is pretty accurate based on the current AXS & GFS models.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Still looks ok to me. Something's ironed out the creases in the models since yesterday and I'll hazard a guess and say it's likely the data inputs for the 20-year-old records broken yesterday in NSW & VIC...

    EC 'aint all in but BOM pumps it's tires in replace of. I think one could expect EC to jump back on board tomorrow.

    I am still in for 15-25cm. GFS doesn't seem too worried about temp or precip on this one (500hpa @ -32), just doesn't like it sticking around for long.
     
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  19. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    I originally said 10-20 for this as I thought it was fast moving. I still think its fast moving but gunna up my prediction slightly to 15 -25.
    Sky weather calling 35 at Buller , 40 at Falls/Hotham and 35 for PV and Thredbo for 7 day totals.
     
  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Perhaps it would be different if there was a couple of 9000 ft peaks near by.:deadhorse:

    Need a tectonic uplift.
     
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  21. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Active Member

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    If only the 433mm of precip in Perisher this month was all snow - that'd make a 4 metre base!
    I'm thinking Selwyn might be the surprise winner along with Perisher. Both 25cm.
     
  22. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Is this the '2nd drop' Ricki or Als? Bords or Slats?
     
  23. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Warner ... won't be there for long
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS and AXS really staying with it this morning.
    EC 12z liking it a fraction more, pressure looks mediocre though. Looking more and more like a run of the mill kinda system for end of June, IMO. @15-25cm to-up, we'll take it!

    [​IMG]
     
  25. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    Yep with the snow on the ground and some great snow making this is looking like a tasty little follow up. Again as per above and my call yesterday I think 15-20cm is nearly a lock now.

    All IMO
     
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  26. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    Should snow @800m/ -4c @700mb[​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  27. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Surely you mean Watto...short, sharp with a predictable end.
     
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  28. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Um yes ! The Watto it is , spotted dog.
    But stay on topic , or go eat a bone.:eek:
     
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  29. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Agree Jeffb, when it's at its coldest.
     
  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Its gonna be cold as.

    [​IMG]
     
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  31. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Hate to say he hanging around.. Maybe if it lingers we call it 'Hangeron'
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looks locked and loaded on 00Z GFS
    IMO
    4 day BOM chart looks good too.

    [​IMG]
     
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  33. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
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    BOM saying 10-25/30mm for each of Hotham, Falls and Buller on Thursday, temps look favourable. Lock me in for 20cms at Buller, 25 cents at each of Falls and Hotham.

    A nice little follow up to last week's season starter IMO
     
  34. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Looking good indeed. Come right back to where it was on Sunday. Liking the hook on it too, a whole lot less westerly than it was looking a couple of days ago. Just the numbers to look out for on Friday morning now.
     
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  35. cin

    cin Part of the Furniture
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    looking good for 15 - 20cm IMO
    with Selwyn probably getting the most



     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I'm not convinced it's going to work in Buller's favour due to the westerly aspect for part of this system.
    I'm thinking 20-25cm for the majors, Buller perhaps 15cm. IMO
     
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  37. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
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    Ain't it always the way with Buller!
     
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  38. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Already pretty chuck, stacked and loaded with moisture

    [​IMG]
     
  39. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I like that big fireball just sth, west of Tas.
     
  40. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I'm going 15-20 for Buffalo, the forgotten mountain. Still one of the best spots in Aus. for x-country.
     
  41. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Some of the pics I've been seeing on social media of the Cathederal from last week are nothing short of breathtaking.
     
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  42. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

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    BOM going for half the snow totals for Perisher than Thredbo?? Not complaining as I have my season pass for Thredbo but interested to know why this could be?? Wind direction maybe? Or just in a sweet spot?

    Thanks for the heads up accomodation booked the next two weekend including a cheeky Friday next week.... Think next week will be a big one!
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    More or less... Orographic aspect has Vic resorts in the line of fire with the WSW flow, first - at least for when the models have the moisture progged to hit. Doesn't always work in a resorts favour if temps are marginal if it makes you feel any better.;)
    [​IMG]
     
  44. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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    Most stunning views in Alpine Australia too!
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds for people in the North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
    Issued at 3:47 pm EST on Wednesday 29 June 2016.

    Weather Situation
    Northerly winds are expected to strengthen overnight ahead of a cold front later on Thursday.

    DAMAGING WINDS around 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are forecast for elevated parts of the North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts on Wednesday night and during Thursday.
     
  46. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Strange there's no sheep graziers warning for Vic. but there is for N.S.W. Snow down to 800 meters sounds a bit to low IMO.
     
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  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Vic Bom going for snow down to 1200m then lowering to 800m
     
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  48. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Jumping the gun base wise imo.
     
  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    15 - 20 for mine.
     
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  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Good 40-50cm base in most leeward areas after the last storm IMO. Bluff Spur has 30% greater depth than anywhere else on that mountain. Stanley bowl will be deeper again.
     
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