Predictions 30th Jun - 2nd Jul System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Jun 22, 2016.

  1. derwent

    derwent Well-Known Member

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    Still needs a day or so for a real handle on it.
     
  2. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    Hi-res has the low to the SW and much deeper.[​IMG]
     
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  3. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Is this going to be 1st drop , we could call it 'Ponts' or 'Ricki your so fin you blow my mind' ? Hey ricky?'
     
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  4. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah....naaah.

    Still there am runs, albeit a touch more 'ridgey'
    15 now if I based predictions on GFS daily....
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BOM 4-dayer falling into line. I still like it for 15-25cm. Perisher/NSW resorts to get the upper scale of that. EC backed off a touch more.
    Maybe a touch of pre-frontal rain arriving Thursday night with the trough ahead of the front. Game on from 10-11pm Thursday IMO. Over by Friday midday.
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Rosberg waves still looking good for a few dumps.

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Ordinarily you'd be skeptical at a 1030hpa high getting pushed out of the way like that, but there just isnt any heat in the continent at the moment (where's PG now with his we're melting press releases?) and it just gets swept aside.
     
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  8. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    11 height shades in the lapse is suggesting this will be another cold howler.[​IMG]
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I'd like that 546 line further north.
     
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  10. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Don't think the BOM 4 dayer looks as good as yesterdays. Quite a drop off.
     
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  11. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Agree. Ridged as ****. Meh.
     
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Weaker again on 00Z GFS
    Officially a "clipper" now?
    IMO

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    GFS forecasting two events in the period. ACCESS R still to upload. Both events have a 534 cross. Solid clippers.

    Friday.
    [​IMG]

    Sunday
    [​IMG]
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Sunday event is covered in the June 4 system thread.
     
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Perhaps my skepticism was warranted after all?
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    It's looked highly likely since it popped up. The models have never been fully certain about this one.
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  18. Kenziepettit

    Kenziepettit Active Member
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    Whats the verdict on winds for buller on Thursday and friday? Dont know enough to read myself and im trying to plan a trip
     
  19. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    This thursday & friday?

    Thursday looks windy
    [​IMG]

    Friday easing off in the afternoon.
    IMO
     
  21. Kenziepettit

    Kenziepettit Active Member
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    Will it make buller unskiable or just inconvenient?
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Hard to say. A bit unpleasant on Thursday IMO. But don't quote me on that! It usually takes a fair bit to close Buller.
     
  23. Kenziepettit

    Kenziepettit Active Member
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    Thanks CC, appreciate it.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Slip slidin, away

    [​IMG]
     
  25. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    Noooo. (I'm sliding myself Friday).
     
  26. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

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    Oh no. Was planning to get down to P but might hold off.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    ...Like it was never there on GFS!
    That broad E-W fetch across the bight will keep the surfers on the Surf coast happy. Good peak periods anyway.
     
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  28. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member
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    max merritt.
    yr no is still bullish right through to the 7th.
     
  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    looks good on the latest ACCESS G

    [​IMG]
     
  30. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Still hope, 3 to 4 days away yet and we all know how quickly it can change.
     
  31. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    This is going to deliver much more than last Friday.

    "Oh Mickey take me by the hand"

    "Oh Mickey"
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looks weaker again on 06 (as does the following system) GFS

    IMO
     
  33. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    obs or prediction thread ? just saying is all
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Perhaps a little better on this morning's runs

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  35. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Some of the current forecasts are undercooking the totals I reckon.

    For me I reckon we could be looking at a good 20-30cm by the end of Friday (there's still another 12 hours of precip after this chart).

    [​IMG]
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    It's a matter of is it going to be cold enough.
     
  37. wangster

    wangster Addicted Member

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  38. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman Dedicated Member

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    benlomond will do ok out of this . maybe 10-15 cm Thursday & overnight into early friday :yum:
     
  39. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    I think it will be def cold enough. It's a touch colder than last Tuesday/Wednesday's event. Snow down to 1600m initially, getting lower through event.
     
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  40. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    From a quick whip round the charts and a look on yeah nah I reckon Thursday To Friday midday ok for 15-25 cm above 1600m.
    Should set up the weekend nicely after a few more nights of snowmaking IMO
     
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  41. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Looks plenty cold enough on Access R.

    if the prefrontal keeps it together it could be lots of snow in a short amount of time.

    [​IMG]
     
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  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    GFS likes too and suggest the prefrontal will fall as snow.

    [​IMG]
     
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  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    While 500m Geopotential isn't great

    [​IMG]

    But it does seem cold enough

    [​IMG]

    Could still do ok. I'm not seeing 30cm, but 20cm is possible IMO
     
  44. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Got to keep in mind that the atmosphere remains cold from the last system with no real chance to heat up in between, so what would have otherwise been too warm (looking at 850 and 500hpa), or borderline, will probably be cold enough at resort level Imo.
     
  45. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Time to weigh in. Looks like moisture from Thurday Lunchtime to late Friday. Coldpool lagging only slightly, so maybe a touch of pre-frontal. But not much.

    I'm calling up to 30cm for Vic, and up to 25cm for NSW.

    Partly cloudy and slight possiiblity of small amount of moisture on weekend.

    OH BTW. Forecast provided with a little extra Mint. :D



     
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  46. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Im naming it First drop
     
  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Access R update is having the coldest pool hook over the ALPS. Thats why it will deliver.

    no more talk about mt canobolas I hope.Sorry OzBC

    [​IMG]
     
  48. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Better than 3rd Flop.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Still looking good on 00Z GFS



    I say lock it in.

    IMO
     
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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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