Predictions 28th - 30th September

Discussion in 'Weather' started by GTB, Sep 21, 2016.

  1.  
    GTB

    GTB Dedicated Member

    Looks like we might have one last hurrah, GFS and Access both showing promise.

    IMO If current charts were to hold we would get 30-50cm of powder with 528 thickness over the alps (NSW) :):woohoo:
     
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  2.  
    stansi

    stansi Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Love Your enthusiasm, But ah, how many hours out is that?
     
    :thumbs: mick chopps likes this.
  3.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

     
  4.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

  5.  
    Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

    At this stage it looks like the best one this last month.......................could be late but great for the BC crew.
     
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  6.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    [​IMG]
     
    :thumbs: Snowy Joey likes this.
  7.  
    Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member

    If the four day rule could bring it forward by four days I'd be very happy indeed. Guess who's going back to reality on the 28th:(:(
     
  8.  
    NewTurns

    NewTurns Dedicated Member Season Pass Gold

    Don't want to get too ahead of myself but am at Thredbo from this coming Sunday to the following Sunday....feeling the faintest twinges of probably highly unwarranted stoke......o_O
     
    :thumbs: telecrag likes this.
  9.  
    mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    downgrade this morning.
     
  10.  
    mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    2 day rule this year.
     
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  11.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

  12.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    I thought so too .
    Starting to get a rather familiar look about it.
    BUT.
    Have learned not to swing and bet on every run / update.
    Still a long way out .
    Edit : That pressure be getting low there jeffx !
     
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  13.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    as always.
     
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  14.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Weather in spring (& autumn) can be very volatile. I trust models even less than in Winter & Summer.
     
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  15.  
    telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    Half day.
     
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  16.  
    mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    yep. something something there's still time something something.... it's not coming back.
     
  17.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    just looks a lot of problems for some down the road.

    [​IMG]
     
  18.  
    Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Wait, a 987hpa low over SE Aus? Plssssss
     
  19.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    One would hope not. It would be another world of pain.
     
  20.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

  21.  
    jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

    [​IMG]
    Purple area's are the wheat belt, EPS run.


    [​IMG]
    Furthest isobar is @1000mb on the deterministic, @Vermilion nobody is asking you to buy into the EC runs, constructive reasons why you think the runs are a load of sh--t instead of one liners would be more appropriate.

    If you have better model data then plssssss post it,give these guys a heads up.I don't care if it snows, flooding and possible property damage is the feature here. So post away V no more from me.
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2016
  22.  
    Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Jeff mate, you gotta take a bit of a chill pill and just calm it down a bit. Do you have personal vested interests in the models? It's OK to say you dont think something will come off, especially a 987hpa low, they are pretty bloody rare over mainland SE Australia. Dont take it personally man.
     
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  23.  
    Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Made me recall this bad boy of 2-3 February 2005.
    Dropped 120mm in Melbourne, greatest 24 hour rainfall since records began being kept
    [​IMG]
     
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  24.  
    telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    Was that the Feb we got 30cm up top, and dudes were doing lifties at Charlotte Pass?
     
    :thumbs: Vermillion likes this.
  25.  
    Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Not sure about quantity, but I do recall there was snow that fell as a result of that system.
    With catchments pretty soaked, anything close to system like that dropping plenty of rain would cause a lot of carnage atm.
    This one was somewhat similar (early September 2010) that dropped a lot of rain too. Hotham was shut down, the road at Falls was cut by a landslide, and car parks at Buller were affected by a landslide as well:
    [​IMG]
     
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  26.  
    Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Yeah there was about a foot of fresh that fell.
     
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  27.  
    7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]

    Wave trying to break over SE Australia. looks Good. Not sure how you can offer much analysis on a localized 987 Hpa Low that far out over SE Aus. If it was in the Tasman and or Coral Sea, you would have greater confidence than over Victoria.

    But localized lows are trending on the models and real time at the moment so who knows. However, I would take the typical winter front that is colder and clears with a fat high.

    :nerd:
     
    :thumbs: Vermillion likes this.
  28.  
    7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

  29.  
    7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

  30.  
    7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]

    One of OZBC pics.

    Need a clearing high.
     
  31.  
    mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    I like that GFS chart.... but I don't really think it's gonna happen sadly. For no other reason than lack of season vibe.
     
    :thumbs: The Plowking likes this.
  32.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    This ^^.
    Just hasn't been / isn't that sort of a year.
    IMO.
     
  33.  
    Vandans

    Vandans Active Member

    What is the photo of the OZBC taken ?
     
  34.  
    7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    :thumbs: nfip likes this.
  35.  
    7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    Time to migrate north to the main range. There is plenty of vibe up there, just need some clear highs.
     
  36.  
    climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Season Pass Gold

    Can guarantee you it's not looking like that level of cover out there today!!!
     
  37.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Not much agreement about the shape, but the models both think something will happen.
     
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  38.  
    mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    EC a shite sight better than this morning. At least that's encouraging.
     
  39.  
    Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    AXS looking pretty good. In fact, every model is showing something that's kinda similar. At least we dont have 1 model showing a blocking high, or GFS going full ECL on us.
    A couple of decent blobs between 9-11 oclock too. I'm listening:
    [​IMG]
     
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  40.  
    neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    I'd appreciate a blocking high right now.
     
    :thumbs: 7wombathead likes this.
  41.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Better

    [​IMG]
     
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  42.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Ridging out on GFS

    [​IMG]

    I can see a trend.
     
  43.  
    nfip

    nfip Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Axs looking more like EC this morning.
    Scary for the Southern States if Thursday Friday eventuate.
     
  44.  
    Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Holy shit.

    Those charts are absolutely nuts.

    This mornings 168hr AccessG its something else
     
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  45.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Jane cautiously optimistic




    "Then the next big low arrives with a long stretch of precipitation for the rest of the week. Latest guidance shows this system will keep its cold air, and there could be a lot of snow to finish the season. "
     
  46.  
    7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

  47.  
    7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

    If only access G was reliable.
     
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  48.  
    7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

  49.  
    7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

  50.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold



    IMO still has the potential to be ridged out.