Predictions 27th-31st May

Discussion in 'Weather' started by JustCantStop, May 24, 2017.

  1. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Active Member

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  2. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    FIFY

    All the action ends Tues for the NSW resorts... IMO
     
  3. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Action hasnt started yet!
     
  4. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Looks pretty decent for Late May to me:

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Wed is far from locked in IMO. GFS going for potentially big totals if that low wraps enough as a cut-off system once it hits the Tasman. The 00Z run shows this.
    In a cut off scenario we may see a lot of precip through the backdoor, behind Tassie on Wednesday for the NSW resorts. SST's are blazing warm off that coast. Any onshore flow will mean extra-moisture.
    That said, GFS is the only one going down this road ATM. Still 144hrs out.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  6. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    BoM (Perisher)

    Saturday 27 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max 8
    Partly cloudy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 mm
    Chance of any rain: 20% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower, possibly falling as snow above 1900 metres. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Sunday 28 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 4
    Showers. Late snow. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 20 to 40 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers, tending to snow in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h decreasing to 40 to 60 km/h in the middle of the day then tending westerly 35 to 55 km/h in the early afternoon.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Monday 29 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -5
    Max 2
    Morning snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Tuesday 30 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -5
    Max 3
    Showers. Snow developing. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 8 to 25 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers, tending to snow in the afternoon and evening. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h tending northwesterly 45 to 65 km/h during the morning then turning southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h during the evening.

    Wednesday 31 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -5
    Max 4
    Partly cloudy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 mm
    Chance of any rain: 20% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a snow shower, most likely during the morning. Winds southwesterly 20 to 25 km/h.
     
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  7. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Active Member

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    [​IMG]
    Is that "the Sunday system" followed by the "Tuesday system"?
     
  8. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yep.
    Here's the bigger pic aka "the nursery ".
    Good to see some weather about.
     
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  9. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Attached Files:

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  10. Arsas

    Arsas Active Member

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  11. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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  12. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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  13. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    that's a lot of nodes
     
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  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah , suprises me when Spag was soo flat looking earlier in the week.
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    There is agreement between GFS/EC for Sunday that we'll see snow before midday (IMO around 10am for Vic Resorts/Midday for NSW), so in saying that I think 10-15cm is most likely outcome for the Sun/Mon system. And I think Jane's call of snow down as low as 900m is pretty spot on.

    As for Tuesday I think we're still not there yet, as GFS is on a bit of a tangent but I think realistically we'll see another 10-15cm in Aus resorts from 10am Tuesday, and down to as low as 800m on Tuesday evening.
     
    #115 POW_hungry, May 26, 2017
    Last edited: May 26, 2017
  16. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    Can we not bag the one professional meteorologist who interacts with the community out of nothing but her passion for weather?
     
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  17. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I'd seriously doubt that. Jane is normally right on the money. She's very professional in her forecasting, one of the Australian industry's best IMO.
     
  18. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    The charts have been saying this for a few days.
    It's going to rain Sunday probably until midday in the south, and mid afternoon in the north IMO.
    But after that, it's all good.
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Those meteograms really show how those temps dive Sunday arvo... It'd be great if it was representative of the winter ahead.:emoji_call_me:
     
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  23. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Bring on the Winter weather banter :D
     
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  24. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Ground cooler

    :out:
     
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  25. jungfrau

    jungfrau Active Member

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    Hot ham !
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    That's for 1830m though.
    At 1600m it's going to be moist.
    IMO
     
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  27. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Active Member

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    No, but these are not required to observe a history of over cooking the forecasts. Plus my post was deleted, so really I am under no obligation to reply.
     
  28. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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  29. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    It's fine everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But me and I think most people here agree that Jane forecasts for her love of weather, not for commercial interests. She's not going to overcook her snow forecasts. She has a lot of integrity, as with most meteorologists. She ain't like the others, I can tell you right now.

    Her new series on her website about teaching weather forecasting is very good. And may of saved me from writing my own forecasting guide for another snow website.

    And thanks Jane for your service to the weather community:)
     
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  30. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    This.
    We all respect she takes the time out to share her knowledge and valued opinion with us here.
    It's always an insightfull and accurate observation of the events as they unfold, which is of great benefit to many here like myself.
     
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  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Vort possibly closing off and moving North. Warmer air in the downstream might be dicey around 850 hPa
     
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  32. Belly

    Belly Addicted Member
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    Low positioning higher with each model run.
     
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  33. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Bom have bumped up the moisture for tmrw and tues.....

    Thunder snow tmrw night?!
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Still some conjecture between GFS & EC. EC going for a more short sharp system. GFS is going for some development in the wrap-around which is far more risky to prog.
    IMO this thing could still flop on Tuesday.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Sunday:

    BOM has actually backed off from Tuesday, in terms of precip.
     
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Looks nicely stacked up to 500hPa though. Its always a fickle beast though
     
  37. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Hmmm, the bom alpine forecast for hoth/fc on tues is 6-20mm which I'm pretty sure is more than yesterday...
     
  38. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    That's the WATL multi model ensemble forecast on those charts, different to the BoM predictions.
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Looks like you're right. The timestamp is actually for yesterday.
     
  40. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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  41. Ramshead

    Ramshead Dedicated Member

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    My favourite part of that article is the Indian Ocean "Diploe". My second favourite part is how it's written by a journalist whose weather knowledge could be comfortably summarised on the white side of a very very small postage stamp. I actually know him and used to work with him. Nice guy. Not a weather person tho
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS really is on it's own for bigger falls on Tuesday.
    EC/The Canadian aren't overly keen on Tuesday. Even AXS maps similar scenario although quite bullish on it's progged falls.
    I am now more inclined to think we may struggle to see 10 cents out of Tuesday now - pressure is somewhat indicative of this too (~1016hPa is as low as it's progged).
     
  43. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    4 day map

    [​IMG]

    BoM (Perisher)

    Sunday 28 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 4
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 25 to 40 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, falling as snow above 1000 metres by the evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h decreasing to 45 to 60 km/h in the middle of the day then turning westerly 35 to 55 km/h in the early afternoon.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Monday 29 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -6
    Max 2
    Possible snow shower.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 40% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the early morning. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Tuesday 30 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -5
    Max 4
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/h decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h during the afternoon then turning southerly 30 to 45 km/h during the evening.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Wednesday 31 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -6
    Max 4
    Partly cloudy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 mm
    Chance of any rain: 20% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a snow shower. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h.
     
  44. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Been busy with 94B elsewhere. A little late to the party but i do
    think we should see the first bona- fide blizzard of the season
    with this system.

    [​IMG]
     
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  45. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    If this gets as low as the 800-900 being spoken here then I might get some home snow to play with in the next few days. If it happens ..................
     
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  46. Bien E

    Bien E Active Member

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  47. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    So far a fizzer boys. Temps still warm , zero wind , 0.3mm in the jar and now clear skies for sun up. Looks like this one is staying more south than predicted. I can see some heavy cloud way to the south of us , maybe as far south as the border. Prediction is ---- not much , just another late May teaser , Tuesday might well be the same.
     
  48. zac150

    zac150 Dedicated Member

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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Below is for Tumbarumba, broken down per model. Seems on track to me.
     
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  50. bigmac

    bigmac Active Member

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    Hey Claude Cat, where are those Metrograms from. Thanks