Predictions 27th-31st May

Discussion in 'Weather' started by JustCantStop, May 24, 2017.

  1. JustCantStop

    JustCantStop Active Member

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    Hi guys...

    The BOM predicting snow this weekend?



    What do you think?

    JCS
     
  2. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    28-29 May.
    [​IMG]
    Nice deep trough on MSLP. -30 500mb Temps on GFS. -11 700mb Temps. -2 850mb Temps.

    [​IMG]
    EC: 5-10cm on the Main Range and Victorian Peaks.
    GFS: 5-10cm

    [​IMG]
    So a fairly cold system with a bit of moisture. Not a season opener though.
     
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  3. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Shame it won't be skiable. My SDS is reaching fever pitch. :confused:
     
    #3 stridercdh, May 24, 2017
    Last edited: May 24, 2017
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  4. fmdc9

    fmdc9 Active Member

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    With the moisture is it perhaps a little marginal for snow making on front valley?
     
  5. Arsas

    Arsas Active Member

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    Yr.no is forecasting 30cm for Perisher while MW is a lot less at only 10cm.
     
  6. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Nice images.
    The blocking / ridging highs I was ( over ? ) reading into yesterday appear to have played the game.
     
  7. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    This is good if we get round 20 in Perisher, That would be a lot more on the main range. I am skeptical they got a lot last night. Had not expected anything much this weekend..
     
  8. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    30-31 May
    [​IMG]
    EC shows a Tassie Clipper.
    [​IMG]
    GFS shows the low coming over the Alps.

    For the Alps.
    EC = 0cm
    GFS= 5-20cm

    I'd give another day's worth of runs to watch this one.
     
  9. nickxylophone

    nickxylophone New Member

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    GFS 00z looks to have upgraded both systems. Less cutoff on the 30th[​IMG]
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS 00Z Precip for 28/29 system throughout <0C timeframe.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member
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    The bulls eye is too far south for my liking.
    Only a few centimeters is my prediction
     
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  12. Astro666

    Astro666 Active Member
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    Spag likes Sunday - Monday.

     
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  13. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Big upgrade for Sunday IMO, Perisher BoM:

    Sunday 28 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 4
    Showers or snow. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers or snow. Winds northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h increasing to 50 to 65 km/h during the morning then turning westerly 35 to 55 km/h during the afternoon.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC and AXS influence, I think. Both have been quite bullish with precip values for this one.
     
  15. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Snow down to 1200m, like !
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Did you think / feel it was going to clip at this time yesterday ?
    Only reading into a Post in the Autumn thread and you seemed to mirror my conservatism with this one.
     
  17. Boodwah

    Boodwah Dedicated Member
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    With this system it's the follow up overnight temps that are more important as to whether resorts start firing up guns...
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Hasn't really been on my radar until a few days ago to be honest. Can't say I've seen it as a clipper just moreso just lacking the right combo (cold air late, top heavy on the pre-frontal moisture). Moisture as always been a concern IMO.Still an element of risk with the pressure the way it is, but who saw 30-odd mm out of 1014hPa last night. ;)

    Although, since this morning, it's now got cold air inbound by Sunday arvo/eve - this has flipped things for me.
     
    #18 POW_hungry, May 24, 2017
    Last edited: May 24, 2017
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  19. Time

    Time Active Member

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    What do you think temps, cloud height and wind will be around feathertop area sat/sun?
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Saturday might be alright. Sunday forgeddaboudet.
    35kts + gusts.
    [​IMG]
     
  21. cin

    cin Part of the Furniture
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    Looking awfully cold, or beautifully cold more appropriately
    Just the moisture looks iffy
    Good for the guns though!
    IMOOOOO!!!!!!!!!
     
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    BOM very bullish in terms of precipitation.

    For Hotham:

    Sunday 28 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -3
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 10 to 35 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northerly 30 to 35 km/h tending northwesterly 20 to 25 km/h during the day then tending westerly during the evening.

    Monday 29 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -2
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h tending northwesterly during the day.

    EC really doesn't jump on board - only suggesting dusting at best.

    [​IMG]

    I'd be thinking 5cm for mainland resorts, and it will pass through pretty quickly based on EC.
    Should be nice in Tasmania though!

    IMO.
     
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  24. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    EC snow accum suggests 5-10cm for the period.
    GFS suggests 10-20cm for the period.
     
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Temps look marginal for much of Sunday at 1800m on EC over the mainland Alps.
    However, it is looking quite windy from the NW, so there might be an adiabatic cooling effect which could see snow to lower levels.
     
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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  27. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    And yet BOM have min and max of -3 as you've posted above.... error?
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Yeh it smells low to me, and the precipitation total seems high.
    IMO
     
  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Soundings looking lacklustre too.
     
  30. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Well I like the direction and strength of the forecast winds for the NSW resorts. I think we are currently looking at 10-15 cm of snow on Sunday, a light dusting on Monday and another 5-8 cm of snow on Tuesday if the models hold. But, EC has a nasty habit of overshooting on forecast moisture in this time range this early in the season.
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    The opportunity to make snow should be there every night next week IMO.
     
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  32. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Zomg, EC has upgraded as well. Now looking at 20cm of snow on Tuesday and 15cm on Wednesday. Season starter if this holds.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Certainly a bit of rain in amongst the below. I think snow is likely in the resorts from around 1-3pm Sunday IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
    #33 POW_hungry, May 25, 2017
    Last edited: May 25, 2017
  34. tomtankman

    tomtankman Active Member

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    These two fronts now look the goods! While moisture is lacking the westerly wind direction is favourable for uplift over the main range. The global models will underpredict the orographic effect which is why the BOM 8 day only shows 15mm of precip. The ACCESSR 12Z tonight will hopefully show 10-20cm Sunday, followed by another 10-30cm on Tuesday. From the 2 fronts would be expecting at least 20cm for main resorts but possibly 40cm.
     
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  35. Ramshead

    Ramshead Dedicated Member

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    I predict that I will be following this thread closely until Sunday. I also predict that I will enjoy tracking the first front of the season that *should* leave snow that doesn't melt before the next one. I predict that is all I have to say.
     
  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Snowfall looks better for tuesday than Sunday.

    If both happen than good.

    10 CM Sunday than 20 to 30 CM Tuesday. Best case scenario. IMO

    It will likely only hold above 1900 m though as there is a big fat high after.

    Wandering Col Pool could be interesting on June the 4th.
     
  37. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]


    EC12z @144hr looks the cherry pick.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Sure does on GFS too. Proper Southerly system (mind the shadowing, but it's got Buller & Baw Baw written all over it).
    [​IMG]
    Looking volatile...
    [​IMG]
     
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  39. nickxylophone

    nickxylophone New Member

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    What are we thinking in terms of freezing levels? I don't know much about how to guesstimate those. Looking at these charts my brain is telling me around 1100-1200m overnight tues-wed? Could be completely wrong though

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  40. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

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    Irrespective of moisture progged Vs actual, Sub 528 thickness = Like. IMO Strong trailing highs NEARLY always diminish southerly moisture forecasts. Most models seem to be far too optimistic IMO
     
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  41. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    850 ht looks to be around 1500m.
    so +/- 1 deg / 100m "freeze " would be 1300 'ish. IMO
     
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  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    There are
    some calling 2 foot storm.
     
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  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Liking 30th
     
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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Plus 6 hours
     
  45. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    The models haven't moved that much this afternoon. Could we see 50cm of fresh across resort areas by this time next week?
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I doubt that amount. I just can't see that sort of moisture across those two systems IMO.
     
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  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    BOM really liking Tuesday.
     
  48. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Here's the culprit.
    60 cents
     
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  49. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Attached Files:

  50. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    And BoM isn't that far behind that.
     
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