Predictions 26-28 July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Jul 17, 2016.

  1. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    The dreaded Ridge :(
     
  2. MickM

    MickM Dedicated Member
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    So all things considered, can Buller expect a net gain or loss Fri through Fri. Thoughts?
     
  3. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yr.no still saying 20 -25 each day Sat to Wednesday.
    Stay tuned...
     
  4. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Net gain, not as much as the other major resorts though.
     
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  5. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    with the latest updates, what we saying for the majors?
     
  6. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

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    4 day rule - waiting and watching still on this one
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    For this phase of the system, say 25cm (+/- 10cm) IMO
     
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  8. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I am thinking 75cm all up and 30cm for this part of the system all up (Of course with Buller receiving 10-20% less unfortunately) IMO
     
  9. cin

    cin Part of the Furniture
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    I think you may be a bit light on that 10-20%
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    In the year 2000, I remember in my 2nd season @buller why other resorts cracked 3m base when Buller managed to to struggle to it's 150cm base. From that season forward it was evident to me that on average Buller sees about 30-50% less snowfall than other resorts.
    Aspect, height & local geography make all the difference in Aus resorts.
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Spot on. I agree. Short and sharp for this one, I think. All over by Tuesday arvie IMO.
     
  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Flat flat flat
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS still strong EC gone way off it on this morning 00Z. Still a long way out.
     
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  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Way way off it
     
  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    hmmm temps are hanging in there but going the way of our Spag obs last few days .
    IMO.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  16. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Plenty of "red" doing what we want but the controls not so minty.

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    This one looks OK on LWT this morning, but I still cant 100% trust it. Plenty of junk behind it coming up quick that may squash it.
     
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  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    This forecast is getting a bit old now. 10 am Tuesday. Can come back a bit better on the later run this arvo
     
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  19. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yo. Better.
    [​IMG]
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    00Z EC back on board. GFS still with it. Pressure's not all that healthy (1014hPa) to warrant anything significant but I still think there's potentially up to 15-20cm in this for Monday night/Tuesday AM.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC better tonight than this morning / yesterday. It's not dead yet IMO
     
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    My charts show that this system picked up a lot of warm air and moisture as it crossed South Africa, which has really dented its strength. I was kind of expecting this, but it looks like it's actually happened. As a result you're seeing higher pressures than what we would like, and more of a clipper system. I'm still holding out hope for it, but it's not looking big.
     
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  23. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    We seeing this at 10 '0 ?

    [​IMG]
     
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  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Can anyone interpret this one.

    Thursday Morning next week.


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Wandering cold pool with decent 500hpa temps sitting behind something really gross.
     
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  26. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    It appears that a cold pool from Wednesday Mornings Front gets cut off as the trailing high ridges underneath leaving a wanderer over Central NSW.

    Moisture is being fed in from a North/South Surface Trough tapping into North QLD. Similar to yesterdays system but with much colder uppers.

    Would be an interesting system to watch if it played out but I think the models are struggling to get a hold on Sunday, let alone Wednesday/Thursday.
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I call that, so far out with lots of scenarios in the ensembles that it hardly knows the day of the week next Thursday. Come back to it on Sunday after these next two systems are 'done' and it'll look a little more realistic.
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Just a clipper on GFS
    (IMO)

    [​IMG]
     
  29. Vandans

    Vandans Active Member

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    BOM seem to have a different view on it .
    [​IMG]


    What would be the freezing level early Tuesday as I want to drive to the ski-tube?
     
  30. BlueHue

    BlueHue Dedicated Member

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    A potential bombing ECL bringing flooding to coast and random bouts of localised heavy snow depending on position of upper cold pool and moisture as it drifts towards the Tasman. Too much uncertainty to put much stock in this scenario for now!
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I'd suggest in the vicinity of 1000m
     
  32. Kenziepettit

    Kenziepettit Active Member
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    Quick fire trip - mon/tues/wed whats gonna be best for buller
    I know i ask a fair bit but you guys are most consistent and reliable :))
     
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    I like this one.
     
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  34. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Which thread do you like it most in?
     
  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Have we merged this one yet

    Wednesday looks good for CC's 40cm.

    [​IMG]
     
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  36. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Yep, needs merge. Same node.
     
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  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Nope.
    Lets count the days for these puppies.
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    This one looks pretty avg at best, to me. Lots of movement in the models run-to-run and largely nothing more than a clipper. I for one, don't see 40cm in it.
    ~10cm at best for Wednesday IMO.
     
  39. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Spag was always showing it was " flat " westerly flow by mid week..
    Bom 4 dayer still a pass , embedded troughs indicated.
    GFS still ok.
    EC showing the 1030 high wins after Tuesday
    Yr no agrees as you would expect.
    PSR calling 3 feet.
    Including today I'm feeling 2 foot by Wednesday morning.
    Most of it tomorrow chucking it on my head ! :)
     
  40. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear Active Member

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    Hopefully Baw Baw will get a little more in the coming days :thumbs:
     
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  41. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    534 line position.
     
    #91 Jeffb, Jul 24, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2016
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  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I like the fetch as stated yesterday. Just wish it would clear Thursday, but looks unlikely. This is actual at 10 am today.

    [​IMG]
     
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  43. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    How's that 1041 hPa high over the Indian Ocean! Beast
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I personally like the trough line over North East Indian Ocean. Those are some super-warm SST's fueling that thing (don't forget it's not monsoon season for indo...).
    [​IMG]
     
    #94 POW_hungry, Jul 24, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2016
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  45. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    It was monsoonal last Friday.
     
  46. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    My mind looks at the red mottles at 40 S 20 E to 100 E.

    [​IMG]
     
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  47. double_J

    double_J Active Member

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    Ok lads listen up!
    Wednesday should be epic, We are expecting the cut off low to push up late in the evening as it passes over the great sandy desert, should pick up a heap of cold air from the bite as it heads across. Now lads keep an eye on the 540 line as it gets slightly trapped in between the 539 & the 541 lines, Just been in the blower to Jane and she thinks I'm crazy but just you lads watch. I'm tipping at least a metre from the snow guns on wombats rumble.
     
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  48. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Satpic looks impressive but 18Z GFS reckons just 15cm over the next day or two on Vic alps.
     
  49. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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    Alcohol... so much to answer for!
     
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  50. Juicebiglow

    Juicebiglow Active Member

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    I think this is developing nicely and may deliver another 15cm or more, the sat picture is showing this has everything it needs to produce the goods....
    watching with interest
     
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