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Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Jun 19, 2017.
I'll be optimistic and say the weekends totals will be:
Buller = 22cms
Falls = 18cms
Verdict is it's heading in the right direction.
Nope. It's well over a week away and only and has about a 30-40% of survival this far out IMO.
it's weather discussion not horse racing
The sad reality is that Buller almost never gets more than the other big mountains.
The weather is coming from the NW to west.
IMO falls hotham perisher will be around 15cm and Buller around 10cm as the charts currently stand.
Buller might actually get more precipitation than the others but not of the right kind.
But don't bet on it!
See, being from NSW, I don't really care about Buller, Falls or Hotham, but I do want to understand the progression of precipitation events as they occur across the range and the impact that has on Perisher.
Here to that
Here is the snow watch forecast
Source: snow watch .com
BOM 4 layer looking a bit better
I am no Mod but this stuff doesn't belong in a predictions thread (it's been many a topic of discussion over the last 10-15 years), have you searched the WX forums?
Yep, weather predictions please.
So 25th - 26th event, looks like it kicks off Sat Arvo, and runs through to late Monday. Though real cold air not arriving till late Sunday. So maybe get wet Sat, IMO.
Could be good for up to 30cm if the Mintyness is really fresh. But I'm calling 20-25cm net gain.
I can sort correlate the predictions myself with a bit more data. I see a lot of difference of "we are expecting 15cm here" to "we got 5cm there"
As a prediction it would be nice to add a bit more locality to it as well a little. Knowing that Hotham is getting it but Perisher isn't or vice versa, and how much the variation is likely to be, that's all.
As a general rule, it would be averaged across all resorts. When your talking Aus alps, it's in the same region, literally 200-250km apart, you're really splitting hairs for ~5cm difference in snowfall between resorts. If there's going to be disparity due to conditions one would usually underline that.
In terms of what to look for; it comes with experience, stick around and you'll tune into what conditions resorts favour here and there. There's a myriad of variables - far to many to list here.
Stay on topic
GFS 00Z, coming to terms with something due on/around the 29th. Still whack though.
Todays GFS showing an upgrade in Vertical Velocity/ Negative divergence over NSW resorts but less over Vic resorts.
29th looks the goods if that comes off.
long way out.
Get hyped more snow forecast from the BOM from the 22nd right through to the 4th of July
EC 216 & 240 shows similiar progression of the cut-off / cold pool.
* long way to go yet .
BOM is "locking in"
Looking good for 10-15 of much needed mint.
Also, great to see the BOM's locational tautologies in use again....
00Z GFS puts some blisteringly cold temps over Tas on Monday. -5/-14/-36C in the uppers on Monday 1am. That puts snow possible down to 300m ASL, possibly lower. Whilst this is probably going to change, these are some super cold uppers for June.
Here's Hobart's T-Skew - 1am Monday 26th:
IMO EC "29th June" part is slipping out to the 30th.
Canucks have gone crazy over the 28th.
Not getting agreement from other models though.
This system has been slipping time-wise gradually as it progresses.
Assumed all due to the position & anchoring of the West Oz H.
Although it also has some work to do also with the modelled cutting off scenario on the EC / GFS.
Sweet Baby Jesus, please let Canucks on the 28th come through...
EC is still looking to deliver 10-15cm for the 25/26 IMO
Still not a lot agreement in the models for right through this period.
AXS actually looks pretty crap.
yr.no ... on round one
yr.? ... on round two
Temps are a bit uninspiring Saturday night through Sunday-Midday. A wintery mix for 1500-1700m and limiting 'gain' for this period, IMO.
Still think ~10cm is the going rate Sun arvo/Monday IMO.
A balanced, accurate forecast for a resort employee. This kid should go far.
Male Jane Bunn?
I liked your old avatar Wardy, bring it back
July is the Michael Jordan of winter....
I think the technical term is Man Bunn...
Those temps are certain snow for Old Chopps.
EC 12Z run puts the 30th Jun follow up as a clipper at best. GFS still there and interestingly The Canuck looking similar to an earlier EC run, looks large.
No agreement still has it with ~30% chance of survival IMO.
By go far you mean get shafted for somebody who'll speak utter bull dust that whips the punters into a frenzy?
Looks like it starts to dry up through Central/eastern Tas early Monday morning, but still a chance of something light IMO.
Probably needs a bit more southerly than that, will be fresh.
TBH I'm not seeing anything beyond the weekend now on EC.
Are we looking at another High coming back in and ruining the party again?
Luckily we're not talking about San Bernadino NP Vs The Sierra Nevada huh!? The point is we're talking Aus Alps - by in large the same playing field as far as our major resorts go.
just an itty bitty high
18Z GFS doesn't look too bad, IMO. A reasonable positioning of the High way out west which might allow a series of fronts through next week.
Hopecasting, its so far away. It's pretty much assumed that we'll get snowy systems in July anyway. Just gotta keep waiting.
And this is the June 25-29 thread. Long range hope casts are better off in the BBQ thread.
Stay on topic, date range predictions only.
BOM are liking Sunday although still a big range of totals http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/perisher.shtml
Wow, that got much more exciting this arvo
EC reverting to something on 30th (dropped the blocking High from this AM's run), interestingly it's not too dissimilar to GFS's scenario progged on Monday PM.
^^well doesn't that seem to open the ****ing door!!