Predictions 25-29th June

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Jun 19, 2017 at 11:32 AM.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    A series of weak-moderate systems are looking likely to deliver some snow beginning on the 25th.
    The initial system looks to carry in some moisture from a cut-off and tropical latitudes so may so see up to 5-10mm ahead of the cold air.
    As the High continues to dominate it looks as the bulk of the systems will be kept South of Vic. Still... we'll take what we can get at the moment. Follow up trough is looking likely due late on the 25th and potentially another on the 29th, although I'd be caucious of the follow up at this point IMO.
    15-20cm throughout this period at this point IMO.
     
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  2. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    CG saw @janesweather at a function on the weekend and she suggested that there was some action coming from this weekend.
     
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  3. janesweather

    janesweather Dedicated Member

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    I do think this Wednesday's system (21st) will help bring some cold air back (but nothing precip-wise for alps), then we'll have a series of clipping fronts - the high still in the way, but not as bad as it has been.

    Here's a sneak peak of what each resort will have on my site soon (when I have more than 5 minutes to finish it up!)

     
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  4. newman

    newman New Member

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    Yes.

    *fistpump*

    Loving your work Jane.
     
  5. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    00Z GFS looks like an upgrade to me.
     
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  6. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Yep, temps look cold enough for the weekend. Could be a nice little dump if this comes off
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Kinda, just more inline with EC, IMO. Still has 5-10 in it as per CC post this morning, I reckon
    Certainly some pre-frontal above 1700m on late-Saturday PM/Sunday.
     
    #7 POW_hungry, Jun 19, 2017 at 4:15 PM
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2017 at 4:30 PM
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Better ramp up on EC this arvo (00Z), with some subtraction of the ridging on Sunday IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  9. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Looks ok , predicting this activity might weaken the high enough for something a little further down the track but any snow from this period will be a good bonus.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    29th hopecast on EC looking strong, GFS has it clipping on 00Z run
    [​IMG]
     
    #10 POW_hungry, Jun 19, 2017 at 5:05 PM
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2017 at 5:18 PM
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  11. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Has it been so long that we've forgotten what a good system looks like?

    Presssure of 1016 and thickness of 550, and its 'strong'?
     
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  12. Jmac1991

    Jmac1991 Just Registered

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    Queenslander here travelling down to Perisher for the week of the 24th-28th. I'm new to all this snow weather forecasting. It obvisouly doesn't look great but what sort of conditions is this for snow making? With the forecasted 20cm of snow and the snow machines what sort of possibility are we looking at that there might be able to get up to around that 20-25 runs open mark?
    Thanks in advance
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    No.
    You read it wrong... I said EC is looking strong, not the system. i.e. strong backing against other models.


    P.S. 550 'aint the thickness. It's Geo Pot Height. Thickness is progged at sub-534, on EC currently. Considering the upper level temps this equates to snow down to ~1000m.
     
    #13 POW_hungry, Jun 19, 2017 at 6:31 PM
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2017 at 6:49 PM
  14. Peter_C_

    Peter_C_ Active Member

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    Not a great chance. Always lag time of snow fall to getting a run open. If heavy sat night they might try get more open for sunday queues but wouldnt rely on it.
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    29th could just about be treated as a separate system.
    GFS and CMC only hint of a possibility here, while EC has gone all in for the 29th - I suspect it will back off on the next run. IMO
     
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  16. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Active Member

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    Almost 100% guaranteed IMO
     
  17. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher Active Member

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    I'm not going to be pessimistic, but realist. Unless they get 25cms in the next downfall, the only extra they will open will be happy valley and towers on mount perisher, plus maybe a little bit of blue cow, zalis, early starter as they are covered by machine
     
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  18. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    :thumbs:
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Anomolies/ Zonals are actually looking like EC has a little confidence on this one- 29th.
     
  20. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher Active Member

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    So why does YR.No look so good for perisher.
     
  21. Astro666

    Astro666 Active Member
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    Spag not convinced.

    21st - Blocking high will block. Clipper for the VICs. <5cm if anything at all IMO.


    25th - 26th - More moisture but temps marginal. Pre-frontal wet. Little bit of back end. But a long way out. To early to call.
     
  22. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz New Member

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    That seem's very optimistic :( Not sure How accurate that is
     
  23. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    I believe Yr.No get's quoted here as "yeah, na" for a reason ;)
     
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  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    It's a pure reflection of EC, no more.
    As you can see from the EC chart above, the 29th looks mighty good, and that's exactly what YR is showing.
     
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  25. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz New Member

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    EC?? what does this mean
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    You can't forget that it's 6+ days out, I for one will expect things to be scaled back between now and the next 2-3 days. I still see ~10cm off Sat night to Monday, then potentially 15-20cm (possibly more) if it holds it's line for the 29th.

    I agree CC, could be in best interest to separate the two systems if it's still there tomorrow AM?
     
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  27. Jmac1991

    Jmac1991 Just Registered

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    Thanks for the feedback guys. Hopefully something like that does happen and can have at least a few different runs to ski between. I messaged the perisher Facebook page Friday last week and asked a similar question. Apparently Happy Valley and Blue Cow Quad arnt to far away. Just how far away that is, is another thing. Hopefully this weekend will get them over the line.
     

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  28. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz New Member

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    That's pretty good for Perisher, considering they usually don't reply
    If the summit is about to open, Zali's must be close to being open
     
  29. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz New Member

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    Yeah, lets hope they dont scale it back, we need some good news
     
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  30. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    EC (short for ECMWF or European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) is a specific weather model that we use.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    GFS 06Z liking the precip Sunday midnight to Monday midnight (not incl Monday's bonus drop).


    Although, looks like a 'Wintry mix' fluctuating @1500-1700m through most of Sunday, hence why the resorts should expect some rain in there IMO.
    Snow lowering down to 1100m Monday PM.
     
  32. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    And if you had to pick one this would probably be most reliable .
    IMO.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    The ECMWF weather model.
    IMO EC is easily the best public weather model we have.
    YR.no just interpolates the results into a simple to digest readable form for every location.
     
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  34. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    He has been off with the fairies ,probably working with anomalies in his hemisphere.. never really on it anyway
     
  35. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    This all depends on temp and humidity , gods today was they need 5-7 nights of good snow making for towers , it was suggested if it snowed the pressure was off for him .. zalis and bc will need snow from the ski , that's it
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Pretty much locked in ~10cm for Sunday/Monday (25/26th) now IMO. All major models harmoniously agree here.


    29th is hanging in there on EC, but The Canuck and too a lesser degree GFS not buying in yet.
     
  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Tassie to get smashed looking at that?
     
  38. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

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    Looking maybe ok for 25th IMO - 10-15cm; but then i'll reserve judgement.
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Although clearing up, Monday morning in parts of Tas could see snow fall as low as 500m perhaps, IMO.

    BTW, BoM suggesting snow down to 500m on Friday (23rd) for parts of Tas, but I am not sure where they're getting that from. I just don't see any temps that come close to that sort of height (I see snow possible ~1000m at the lowest on Friday night). I'd expect this BoM forecast to change IMO.
     
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  40. Wardy

    Wardy Well-Known Member

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    Yawn for Oz. Season starter for NZ...
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    GFS 18Z showing 1st signs of supporting the 29/30JUN follow-up. Whilst a change is imminent, it has potential to surprise with that sort of trajectory over a very warm, moist Tasman.
    [​IMG]
     
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  42. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    Please let me know when winter decides to stroll along in ...
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    Officially tomorrow.
    but in all seriousness; Sunday. Set your alarm clock Thunderbird.
     
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  44. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Just in time for school holidays
     
  45. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    1040 HPa High due West of Tasmania.... hmmmm...
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member
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    252 GFS, hrrrm....
    Don't read into it too much IMO.
     
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  47. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz New Member

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    So what is thee verdict though
     
  48. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher Active Member

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    Is anyone prepared to take bets on the fall. Maybe a trifecta ob levels at Buller, Falls and Perisher?
     
  49. rugbyskier

    rugbyskier Dedicated Member

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    From my experience I found yr.no to have a reliable short to medium range forecast when I was travelling in Chile and Argentina in August 2015. It correctly forecast 5 days out the spring conditions at Portillo and the fine weather for the Southern Lakes Crossing from Puerto Varas to Bariloche, plus the one rainy day in Buenos Aires.
     
  50. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz New Member

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    What do you mean