Observations 2016-2017 fire season

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Majikthise, Nov 4, 2016.

  1.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    The view north from Penrith currently
    Unconfirmed reports of property losses. (IE someone on FB said...)
     
  2.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    this is not a HR
     
  3.  
    almontyrat

    almontyrat Well-Known Member Season Pass Silver

  4.  
    Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve Dedicated Member

    Bears say impressive camp fire at least...:cool:
    flame heights impressive too in some pics....
     
  5.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

  6.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Bastards.

     
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  7.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    We have had a firebug/s lighting up all over the place the last few weeks...with any luck it it is these two.
     
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  8.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Lets hope, however, history says there's lots of them. ****ing morons.
     
  9.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

  10.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Waiting to see the mapping as there is a significant microbat colony in the North of that reserve.
     
  11.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    Just drove through Lone Pine Fire (West of Nelson Bay, NSW), pac hwy visibility was down to 3-400m. RFS says being controlled but I don't like their chances with 30knt gusts.
     
  12.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

  13.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    I attended an AMOS function very recently where this lady gave a very sobering presentation about the causes of fire ignition and how our current policies to 'fight fires' are completely useless.
     
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  14.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Port Stephens in strife.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  15.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    And I figure counter productive
     
  16.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Well her argument can be summarised thus.

    Majority of fires are deliberately lit by young socially rejected impoverished males.
    Our current planning laws and socio-economic system currently places lots of young impoverished socially rejected males on the urban fringe close to forests where they can do the most damage.

    The amount that we spend on fire prevention (i.e. understanding and preventing arson in the first place in urban fringe and rural communities) is a tiny, tiny fraction of what is spent on fire 'fighting'.

    And with the long term trend of increasing FFDI in Southern Australia, this is only going to become more problematic in the future.

    The idea of 'strike teams' driving around in the bush fighting fires was developed in the early-mid 20th century (often using surplus WW1/WW2 army equipment) and was created in the cognitive aftermath of massive wars. I wonder if in the 21st century people might stop and think that maybe, there is a better way to approach this.
     
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  17.  
    teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    I assume this was in Sydney?
     
  18.  
    tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker Season Pass Gold

    Majority of fires around here are started by lightning strikes, power line flashes, cigarette butts and the army!
     
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  19.  
    teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty Season Pass Gold

    Last edited: Nov 6, 2016
  20.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

    Sorry - I got the ratio wrong. Professor Stanley's old article from 2013 suggests one third to one half of bushfires in Australia are deliberately lit.

    That article summarises her argument better than I did.
     
  21.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Isn't the majority stat all non natural, ie arson, negligence, misadventure?
    Which @teckel 's data also backs up.
     
  22.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

  23.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Fire in Swan Hill today but luckily contained. Caused a fire truck to be caught in the fire too.
     
  24.  
    tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker Season Pass Gold

  25.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Fills one with confidence that does ^
     
  26.  
    climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Season Pass Gold

  27.  
    1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Active Member

    Parts of the North Coast of NSW are in nuclear territory, with the KBDI cracking 150 in Lismore. Will go off if some wind turns up with the hot weather next week.
     
  28.  
    Rush

    Rush Pool Room Season Pass Gold

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  29.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    latest AWAP contrast with sept in the spring weather thread
    SW tassie won't want any lightning. West coast WA still has some vulnerabilities.
    Channel country has begun drying out
    Bring on the humidity, should ameliorate what risk there is for most of coastal NSW and SE QLD
     
  30.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    [​IMG]
    West Victoria, West and Central NSW and South West WA looking bushfire potential. Parts of Melbourne included
     
  31.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Later in the summer after this season's growth much of Western nsw and Vic will be pestilenceville, fire being one of many potential ills.
     
  32.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Melbourne risk correlates with the soil moisture eg Bellerine and Mornington peninsulas.
     
  33.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    January to April will be the fire season this year. Peaking Feb and March
     
  34.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Agree. Although stuff is drying out up here, the humidity has arrived. So that ameliorates stuff a bit. Mind you all bets are off with the behaviour of arsonists picking their weather windows.
     
  35.  
    Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member

    Agree, delayed peak for the most dangerous time for us in SW WA this year, a lot of properties caught unprepared with the cold, protracted winter, then suddenly snapping in dry and windy conditions. Lower layer soil moisture and delayed soil warming has led to a lot of late grass growth and double and triple cuts being required to keep the fine fuels down.
     
  36.  
    POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Addicted Member Season Pass Gold

    The Tinder Box Alpine region (a lot which hasn't burnt since 2003 - 14years) looks under threat with some uncontainted small stuff kicking-off in the last hour or two. 60-70km/h winds on the peaks.


    From HERE
     
  37.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

    That would be bad.
     
  38.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Emergency warning declared for Tarago in the Southern Tablelands.
     
  39.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Another grassfire in Minimay in Victoria, near the SA border.
     
  40.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold



    and how the area looked on saturday
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2017
  41.  
    Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member

    Looks dry. Very bad.
     
  42.  
    kylep

    kylep Dedicated Member Season Pass Silver

    Was listening to the command channel this afternoon. Raced away very quickly across the grasslands. Crews were very busy trying to fight the fire and protect properties. The big birds were sent fairly quickly I think. ACT crews joined the efforts.
     
  43.  
    Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing Moderator Season Pass Gold

  44.  
    Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Hmm the latest mapping for the Tarago fire seems to be inspired by @Mufts
     
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  45.  
    kylep

    kylep Dedicated Member Season Pass Silver

  46.  
    Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture Season Pass Gold

    Tje best thing about the fires is that it stops the news reporting on the drownings and car accidents.
     
  47.  
    1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Active Member

    Was on the Currandooley Fire, above. Went like the clappers. Tried to get in front of it to pull it up on Mt Fairy Road but it blew past us and up the hill. Lucky only one house was destroyed. So much grass around here that the heat next week could cause issues again.