Predictions 20-25th July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Jul 11, 2016.

  1. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    Impatience is not your friend, have a few drinks and enjoy whats about to unfold.
     
  2. Gregah

    Gregah Active Member

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    Indeed. @The Fallen: what's you take on this afternoon's BOM 4 day charts - the high seems to be a bit ridgier than hoped for after day 3?
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Spot on!
     
  4. mattblackrs4

    mattblackrs4 Active Member

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    A picture tells a thousand words that Mt Perisher snow cam is horrible I can't believe the first front can freeze that running river solid let alone get some snow coverage over it. I'm not saying there won't be some decent snow over the next week but so much damage done today we can't ignore over 150mm of rain.
     
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  5. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    No ones ignoring it mate. What do you want us to do?? You're grieving like you've lost a loved one. We got more than anyone expected, but I guess most of us were expecting rain today - quantity hardly matters.
    Snow is hours away...
     
  7. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Yes we can. Rain happens in Oz... every year. Not much you can do apart from booking tickets to japan in summer.
     
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  8. mattblackrs4

    mattblackrs4 Active Member

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    I don't want anyone to do anything it's a prediction tread I'm happy for people to keep predicting it will great next week I'm just looking at the now! And what I see is a lot of damage 70cm of snow on warm dirt an water isn't going to make up for what we have lost, my prediction is that we won't gain anything IMO
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Perhaps head over to the obs thread then. No point being 'in the now' in a prediction thread...
     
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  10. Mctavish

    Mctavish Well-Known Member

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    I empathise with all who are despondent over the loss of cover this week and in particular today. Over the years I've never ceased to be amazed how quickly the slopes recover with a decent dump and how good the skiing can be one or two days after a wash out such as today. The worst of today is behind us and for those lucky enough to have the next week on the slopes it's time to toast the fresh that is about to arrive. Season revival!! Bring it on!!
     
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  11. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

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    Where?
     
  12. hooha

    hooha Active Member

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    This is true and reminds me of around the same time in 2003. I predict if this turns out like 2003 everyone will be going off chops....
    fingers crossed, what else can you do? ;)
     
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  13. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Ah sorry, just today's rain event, it's a blackout. Ha

    Good to see temps dropping, please don't stop the precip but!
     
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  14. mattblackrs4

    mattblackrs4 Active Member

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    Thanks for that I will head over to the glass half empty thread as opposed to the glass half full thread. Wouldn't want to have a opinion in the wrong thread.
     
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  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Direct hit today by the Jet Stream.

    Need a direct hit tonight. Still a net gain possible by Monday above 1750 m.

    Start again under 1500 m, its such a shame because it was lovely down to the river last week.

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic - predictions only
     
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  17. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Jane says snow from here on...
     
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  18. mattblackrs4

    mattblackrs4 Active Member

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    Just think of it as the river now coming up to meet it at 1750m, sorry! couldn't help myself off to the obs thread.
     
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  19. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Sunday still looking good. 22nd 06gmt GFS

    [​IMG]


    Monday is looking crackers! 06gmt GFS

    [​IMG]

    With SW flow into Friday. Great week coming up. imo
     
  20. BlueHue

    BlueHue Dedicated Member

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    Yep this season so far reminds me of 2003. Big dumps of snow with lots of warm and rain in between, up and down like a yo yo until late August when the big snowfalls came back to back for a brilliant late season.

    Hopefully what is to come this weeks gets things back on track, plenty of potential for good falls until Wednesday.
     
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  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Head over to the butthurt thread more like....
    Reckon we are good for 50cm over thehe next week. Some aspects will be good. Some not so much.
    Cest la vie.
     
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  22. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    05 a bit the same
     
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  23. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
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    Interesting forecast from Jindy of snow lowering to 800 meters old mind you from yesterday 4.30

    Jindabyne Forecast


    Forecast issued at 4:30 pm EST on Friday 22 July 2016.

    Saturday 23 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 5
    Showers easing.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Snowy Mountains area
    Mostly cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers about the alpine peaks, high (80%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1500 metres at first, lowering to 800 metres later in the day. Winds westerly 35 to 55 km/h.

    Sunday 24 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max 5
    Late shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Snowy Mountains area
    Mostly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers about the ranges, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 800 metres. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.
     
  24. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Nice of GFS to upgrade the moisture. Nice grays color over Victoria around Hotham and NSW

    [​IMG]
     
  25. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Nice upgrade on the 18z Forcast GFS.

    Sunday :)
    [​IMG]

    Monday

    [​IMG]

    Epic Tuesday!

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I guess I take a lot from this forecast period.

    It may look good on the 4 day chart.

    But the upper level Jet Stream is a beast that can really turn it into a pineapple. Also adding it to the forecast checklist now.

    Based on my new rule the dump Tuesday night to Wednesday look like the best one.
     
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  27. PowWow

    PowWow Active Member

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    Any bets on when the wind will die down if at all today? Not going to bother going up the hill until more lifts open. NSW
     
  28. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Next Wednesday. :)
     
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  29. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend
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    Thredbo is basically open.
     
  30. bullet

    bullet Well-Known Member

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    I'm sitting in blue cow terminal, it's blowing hard still. Can't see any chairs opening today.
     
  31. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]

    The next band on Sunday looks like a direct hit.

    [​IMG]

    Troppical Jetstream feeding into it but were south of Jetstream now and the southern ocean jet stream is feeding moisture into the Sunday Dump. Could mean we are all square by Monday to 1600m. Still looks to be a big net gain by Thursday to 1400 m.

    [​IMG]
     
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  32. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Jetstream gets better placed after every major front IMO. Allows the 500 Hpa atmosphere to cool.
     
  33. skichic

    skichic Addicted Member

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    yeah Terminal isn't opening that's for sur
    ROFL
     
  34. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Four days up with Jet stream data to analyse.

    This system really will make or break the season. I predict it will make the season.

    [​IMG]
     
  35. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    ^ A thing of beauty.
     
  36. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Nice - lots of cutoff action happening over the next couple of days and the pressure is going to be hovering around 1000hPa or less coupled with low temps.....certainly encouraging for some good snowfalls to continue.

    IMO I'd say Sunday is looking like an upgrade with a bit of embedded trough action......

    One thing's for sure, the next 3 days look VERY windy.....
     
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  37. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Further to previous post:

    Love the slingshot / conveyor belt in effect

    IMO Perisher could easily see something like 70-80cm of fresh snow in total from Friday night through to Wednesday afternoon. Should repair most of the damage done by this epic rain event.
     
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  38. Bato

    Bato Dedicated Member
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    The problem is that the snow will still be melting from from under, still a lot of water to run, hopefully it freezes soon.
     
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  39. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    Just run next 9hrs
    [​IMG]
     
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  40. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    From what i can see EC has a lull period @16-18 hours then blizzards begin again @36hrs.
     
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  41. Adricat

    Adricat Active Member

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    So tomorrow clearish at at DaBo, windy with maybe a good few cm more of a top up for tonight/am?
     
    #741 Adricat, Jul 23, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2016
  42. IAB

    IAB Addicted Member
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    I reckon it'd be freezing now, it's bitterly cold in all resorts right now.
     
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  43. Stiffler

    Stiffler Active Member

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    Any top ups predicted this evening?
     
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  44. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    Yeah if anything it had gotten colder.
    [​IMG]
     
  45. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    At - 6 >> -10 I think the creeks may have stopped and frozen over and the ground would be frozen with the thin cover. 80-120to come ( just my thought)
     
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  46. bullet

    bullet Well-Known Member

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    Hopefully soon but not yet, we jest fell through 15cm of frozen looking ground into 200mm of water under it in smigs carpark.
     
  47. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    EC predicting up-to another 1.3 metres over the next 10 days, Off the chart scale

    [​IMG]
     
  48. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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  49. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Da fetch
    [​IMG]
     
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  50. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    Strewth!
     
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