Predictions 20-25th July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Jul 11, 2016.

  1. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    GFS has the big fat high ridging out half way to NZ for Wednesday. Be nice if the above came off but....
     
  2. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    BOM increased precipitation for today to anything from 30 to 90mm. (For Thredbo)
     
  3. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    No sugar coating it... It will be a wet, wet and wild day in them hills today.
     
  4. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Today's poo will be glitter coated over the next few days.
     
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  5. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Here's what we all want to believe.
    and the 4 day rule says so ;)
    [​IMG]
     
  6. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    I'm happy for people to judge what I am saying as a "hopecast" because yes, I am looking at the positive aspects because this season, the luck has been running our way and I see no reason for it to stop now.

    But I believe my reasoning is also sound. We know that the models struggle to accurately see past complex systems like what we saw over NSW Wednesday and the fronts currently heading our way Today and Saturday.

    This means that they will revert to predicting standard patterns past these dates, which is for the high to ridge in. Its a likely scenario and could well happen.

    But, there is also another very likely scenario which happens when you get massive highs stalling Mid Indian which is that once the initial fronts pass and the computers get a good read on what's following, we often see stronger fronts arrive at the end of the event that weren't predicted at the beginning.

    I can see a couple of reasons to support this happening this time around, which I have mentioned earlier but I could be wrong.

    That's the beauty of weather.
     
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  7. Driftwood

    Driftwood Active Member

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    Any chance the snow level will be down to 1300m @ Perisher by 10 this evening?
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    yes, I think that could turn by then, IMO
     
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  9. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Active Member

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    "...but I could be wrong", blooming heck, you may as well just have not said anything. :confused:
     
  10. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    A big no for me.

    Be lucky to be getting snow at 1800m by then for me.
     
  11. Driftwood

    Driftwood Active Member

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    Thanks CC.
     
  12. Driftwood

    Driftwood Active Member

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    Cheers man. That's sort of how I was reading it, maybe 1500/1600m. However, I don't trust my judgment yet, as the more I've learnt, the more I realise I don't know, so best to ask those with XP. Looks like I'll have to leave the heavy wet weather gear out of the bag for the plane anyway.
     
    #662 Driftwood, Jul 22, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2016
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  13. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Upgrades across the board for next 72 hours. Quality and quantity.

    Jane has up to 90cm by this time next week.


    BRING IT ON
     
  14. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

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    Please explain what upgrades?
     
  15. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    BOM going for above 1700 late tonight.
     
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  16. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Nothing beats embedded cold fronts IMO.
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Looks a little later on the 12Z GFS so I think with 40kts WNW and 4 degrees at 850hpa we can expect snow at 1700-1800m by 9pm-ish so maybe 1300m by 11pm12am IMO.
     
  18. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    All this ignores the torrent that is today!

    EC looks like more moisture sooner, and colder than yesterday's runs. GFS and axs have more moisture in the the following systems than they did yesterday (albeit axs is perhaps less snow in next 24 hours than yesterday) and I've never been partic worried about temps after tonight - indeed we may see some -5c 'powder'.

    On the downside, the cold air is arriving later today than it looked like yesterday, more like 10pm (I thought 6-7pm yesterday).
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  20. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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  21. mattblackrs4

    mattblackrs4 Active Member

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    Hate to be so negative, can't help but think we will be starting from near scratch looking at the rain totals and cam pics coming in, will need every bit of the 90 cm!
     
  22. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    People will be on here tomorrow high fiving about fresh tomorrow morning. Sunday will be magic. Monday/Tuesday will be epic.
     
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  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    I am on mountain now and categorically tell you that is not the case at Falls Creek. definitely some areas are getting hammered hard, particularly high traffic or N-NW facing. However more sheltered aspects will hold up fine. This is not going to wash out 90cm of base competely.
     
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Wow the Tropical Jet stream is strong with this one. Its forcing the 500 hpa temps

    The 700 hpa cold temps are pushing underneath the Tropical Jet stream. I think snow more likely at 1-4 am Saturday.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #674 7wombathead, Jul 22, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2016
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  25. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

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    I predicted tomorrow morning will be epic at Thredbo. 20-30cm overnight is more than enough for a slide
     
  26. Adricat

    Adricat Active Member

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    I'll let you know. :)
     
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  27. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    No real change i can see EC still forecasting steady snow falls up-to 125 cm, from late tonight including over the weekend into Tuesday. Don't like to look to far ahead.

    [​IMG]
     
  28. mattblackrs4

    mattblackrs4 Active Member

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  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    wow
     
  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    4 days to come.

    [​IMG]
     
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  31. Driftwood

    Driftwood Active Member

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    That's cool.. Wouldn't be the first time, having to wait out a storm. Put on a hot chocolate, stoke the fire and should be just about time. Chains can wait until the AM now. Going to be a great w/e, fresh is best!
     
  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Good surf maps too for vic
     
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  33. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    You can see why some models are trending on the aggressive side out to the 28th.
     
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  34. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    As I tell my friends, I dont make the weather, I just try to predict it;)
     
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  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Hey The Tropical Jet stream won today. It could of gone either way. Someones got to Punt.
     
  36. slotmachine

    slotmachine Active Member

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    maybe snow falling on wet dirt wasn't hyperbole in the end!

    access-r has the cold air arriving later on most recent run. at least the bulk of the rain will be gone in the next couple of hours
     
  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    The Cold Air is over Vic with negative temps at Hotham.

    However, need a direct hit to repair the damage.

    Could Happen
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    It's cooler, it's not cold.
    The "real" cold is still some hours away.
     
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  39. slotmachine

    slotmachine Active Member

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    wouldn't say the cold air has arrived ,hotham still 6.5C at 1300m.
     
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  40. mattblackrs4

    mattblackrs4 Active Member

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    I
    After 130mm of rain at Perisher is now the time use the term season starter for this system. Snow falling on wet dirt sounds so good.
     
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  41. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    I'm predicting a real shitfight to get up the mountains tomorrow a.m.
     
  42. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

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    Just about about to jump in the car now and head down to Thredbo.... Not looking forward to the drive and hoping tomorrow isn't to bad. Tho I am normally positive in my posts not looking to great is it?
     
  43. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    We are talking about boundary layers here.
     
  44. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    I'm thinking the opposite. Im thinking people won't bother after viewing the cams today
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic. Weather predictions only.
     
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  46. mattblackrs4

    mattblackrs4 Active Member

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    Maybe the resorts can run white water rafting tomorrow.
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  48. snowduck

    snowduck Dedicated Member
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    Storm now moving across Adelaide.

    Hailstones + gale winds
     
  49. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    Indeed its playing out as the models have been showing the 540 is likely just a few more hours away 4-6.
     
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  50. Mctavish

    Mctavish Well-Known Member

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    Even though today has been a very wet event for NSW, the BOM is predicting up to 70 mm snow for Perisher over the next few days. Almost wish I wasn't heading OS as there is going to be some sweet skiing this week.