Predictions 20-25th July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Jul 11, 2016.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    A series of fronts due in this date range, all associated with the next major node.
    EC & GFS both going for a preceding front due 20th July which looks to break & shift the blocking pattern followed by stronger frontal system (22nd) with lots of cold air (-5 @850mb well-into the 40th parallel).
    At this point it looks high risk for ridging but EC seems consistent over the last few runs, albeit 240 hours out. GFS not aligned, but seems interested.

    AXS has this high holding firm so nigh alignment as yet.
    60% chance of snow bearing system this far out IMO.

    EC
    [​IMG]
    EC @ 850mb
    [​IMG]
    GFS
    [​IMG]
     
  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  3. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Been watching these dates since @Vermillion mentioned them a few days ago.
    GFS, for what it's worth, suggesting a L pressure system peaks and slides south east around the 19th but breaks up the belt of high pressure enough for something to slide through on the 21-22nd.
    Spag ensemble says clipper 21-22nd
     
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  4. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    SPAG has been improving on each run on these dates. Something in the pipe, but agree with above, clippers at the moment.
     
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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO has looked like a clipper for a few days on the models.
     
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  6. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Wanna see what EC has though, GFS in reality can eat the fat one.
     
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  7. AJS

    AJS Well-Known Member

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    Have my first trip for the season (and it's only a 6hr stop in Thredbo) on the 23rd so I will be watching this post/system with interest.

    I predict that even if it's wet I'll be out there with a smile plastered to my face, but any wind obs will be very helpful as getting some runs in Thredbo's a bit tough when on wind hold..
     
  8. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    pretty meh at this stage. anyone got extended EC on accuweather or the like?[​IMG]
     
  9. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    As long as the trailing high doesn't ridge it out of the way it looks promising at this stage.
     
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  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    yeah, wanna see what happens over the next few days after this system does it's thing. that high is in pretty solid position there, see how it unfolds.
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    The high moving in tomorrow will be doing some good heating over the next week, particularly across WA, this is the difference between the system due today and the one on the ~22nd. Hence why I think we have a higher risk of ridging.
    No use looking any further out IMO. The models just need some more data from the next few days to provide context and reason.
     
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  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    [​IMG]
     
  13. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    ^ Tasty. If nothing happens and we ridge out in the next 2.5 weeks looking at those nodes, I will shed a tear!.
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Sorry, really had to take a shit so didnt have time to post comments. Looks like 8oclock on this one, doesnt look like anything special at this stage, but there's a lot of good gear behind it that encourages me. What doesnt encourage me is the high in front of it, which may either squash it or slow it down enough to build. I'm hoping for the latter. At this stage is looks to be peaking too early, but plenty of time to change and as POW said, we wont know enough detail until the current system passes through and the high establishes itself.
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Look at the charts, THEN coffee time man... You're out of sync
     
  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    I couldnt wait!
     
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  17. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Spag , Bog , wow Kofflers
     
  18. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    EC isn't looking great
    Maybe 10-15cm IMO could change when the charts are more clearer though
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Clipper.
    But things can change for the better or worse ;)
     
  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Definitely a downgrade from late yesterday (06z) to the morning on GFS but the variability between the model runs suggest it may come back.

    But I suspect the event is around the 18 to 19 July after the high has passed.

    Good time to be camping in the Alpine between 15 to 17 july.
     
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  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Still there on the GFS model now.

    [​IMG]
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  23. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    The main issues with the Meh map
    above

    At the scale of map shown above, you don't get a feel for the Rosberg Waves or Long Wave Trough (LWT).

    There is definitely a LWT wave here and the potential for an event, which the map also alludes too. I mean if you tweak it 5 degrees further north and it would be game on.

    I guess I get a vibe from the progression of the wave.
     
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  24. seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

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    Looks like a solid lull afterward as well
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    That far out, anything can & will happen, I wouldn't be worrying about it.
     
  26. seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

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    At least here is weather this year and a very active storm belt around the pole
     
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  27. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    EC 00UTC likes it IMO:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Yeh, looks better on EC this afternoon. IMO
    Still a bit of clipper, but a cold one like the system we have today.
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS is having a bit of a neg out. Looks on par with yesterday in terms of the deviation between EC & GFS.
    Still need some spike northward of that Low but that High 'aint giving us much yet.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    AXS looking healthier.
    [​IMG]
     
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  31. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

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    I predict this one will be a nice 'freshen up' to low levels:woohoo: and only if its because my week on the mountain starts on the 24th....
     
  32. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    EC's got the nice slingshot effect in force......

    You're right though Pow, that High is a beast and will make or break this system....
     
  33. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    same ;)
     
  34. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Active Member

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    Jane noted that there is tropical moisture from the upper trough over Qld later this week that could make this system very nice or as GFS suggests, provide a nasty dose of warm prefrontal rain.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC looking ok and maybe starting to sort itself out here. High in a less concerning position than yesterday.
    Plenty, plenty cold. -5C @ 850mb well below 40S.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    GFS also buying into it.
    [​IMG]
     
  36. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    EC a whole lot of meh this morning IMO
     
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    This is still looking OK, too early to write this one off yet.
     
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  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Yeah plenty of room to shift/improve/disappear completely.
    Looks okay on spag this morning. Good shape, very similar to current system.
     
  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    agree about EC.

    GFS love it though.

    [​IMG]
     
  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Like it if that high stays where it is.
     
  41. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    GFS has some serious fetch again on the above
     
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  42. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Current.
    [​IMG]
    22nd
    [​IMG]
     
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  43. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    Definitely a trend for more weather, GEFS ens 20-22nd overall looks a broad scale change nina-ish. [​IMG]
     
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  44. seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

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    tending to snow or rain?
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    There is vague potential for some pre-frontal, not too dissimilar to Monday, but the main feature looks very cold. Snow beyond that, at this stage IMO.
     
  46. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    same same.
     
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  47. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    Will be certainly cold enough for snow @500mb if the EC verifys , Its showing the moisture content will be there as well.
    Its still early obviously to make any call without up-to date 700mb temp charts. A blend between the GEFS ens and EC is looking promising, hint just keeping watching.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I like it more today than yesterday.
    The reason it looks "worse" on the public EC charts is that they are 24 hours apart and this is hitting on the 00Z on the 22nd - which is right in the middle of the two intervals - hence it looks "meh"; Assuming it holds up, the 00Z EC run will coincide to show it relatively perfectly IMO.
     
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  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Thanks for the clarification!
    :thumbs:
     
  50. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    AXS to compare fwiw.
    Looks very similar but I didn't think -16 or -18 uppers where "cold" enough ?