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Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Aug 9, 2016.
Raiders just fully give it to the Storm bru !
The Vibe just turned the corner .
Stay on topic.
I see cold air at level. Me thinks snow is coming.
GFS 12Z (and to a degree CMC) agrees with EC follow up on Mon. Won't be a hellovalot but worthy of ~10cm on top of the 10-15cm on Friday night IMO.
Anyone noticed that the weather model forecasts are now gone from Wundermap? Can't see them anywhere or any mention of paying to see them/etc.
Yeah noticed that also
There is a deep fetch coming straight off the Antarctic Mainland mid way across the Indian so you are right, this one should pack some very cold air.
Just need a moisture injection.
EC still looking good, GFS coming into line
IMO looks less prefrontal on today's runs.
As it stands I'm expecting 10-20mm rain and around 30cm post cold change. Lots of westerly so that might hurt Buller.
Not in your time frame, but here's a freebie.
I am starting to get excited about 20 - 22nd.Looking better for a moderate dump.
Long way out but that 25th looks BANG.
BOM 4 day map
Based on ACCESS-R the bulk of cold air looks like arriving between 4 - 7pm Friday (Thredbo / Perisher) with a NW wind at the time. I'm trying to work out when the moisture gets there - maybe it turns to snow a little earlier given orographic effects?
Could this be the season opener for Lake Mountain?
Starting to look all good
That would be nice
Thanks coldcfc. Thats her.
This might have legs.
Winds @ 850hPa don't exactly blow my hair back (literally) for adiabatic cooling.
Temps at 850 looking better on stormcast 00z run too (4-7 pm Friday) Maybe just 10 mm prefrontal am hoping.
Sorry, thats not the one i was watching. The one I flagged arrives a few days later.
But this weekend is looking much better IMO
Long wave is definitely looking flat tomorrow but it looks to build back to a solid 5 node pattern by the 22nd.
The Vibe is starting to return IMO Olympic Style
EC00Z looking on track. EC like Monday, just as much as Friday night so a better scenario for snow than GFS. A little cut-off pool could be the gift that just keeps on giving Monday IMO.
Monday EC 00Z
Yeh, EC not letting go of this.
CMC is similar, low is stronger, but further south.
Even GFS starting to come to the party. IMO
7 days from 25th booked. 5th trip down to Thredbo this season and I just get a vibe about this period seems like we have a line of little systems.
So far my luck has been #%?! - maybe just maybe it has changed
Good things come to those who wait
Pressures could be a tad lower IMO
FWIW AXSG going for ~10cm Mondee. Likely minimum outcome IMO.
Baw Baw and LM may get some love at last.
Why's that? From that direction shouldn't the air at 850hpa be rising from around 1400m to over 2100m when it hits the main range?
Wind is a driver for both orographic lift & adiabatic cooling. At this stage GFS suggest relatively light-moderate winds (20-25km/h) at 1500m so the rate of cooling will be less than that of stronger winds at the same pressure/height.
That chart shows 25 knots, which is closer to 50km/h.
Your point is still correct though, it's not like the wind is up around 100km/h. I saw the highest wind speed of 50kts (which would be plenty fast enough) and just asumed it was over the alps. Looked at the chart properly and it's miles away.
Shit, I am drunk. 20-25kts. My bad.
Could someone please post the GFS 6hr precipitation charts for Friday? I can't find them.
7pm Friday to 7pm Saturday (snowfall for the resorts IMO)
Thursday eve to Friday eve (rainfall below 1800m) IMO
GFS progged peak snowfall depth as below (Friday night-Saturday). I still like it for up to 15cm for the resorts IMO.
Monday may see a little more again.
Cheers - exactly what I was after (pre/post frontal).
I'm thinking it might turn to snow at resort level a little earlier than 7pm - somewhere between 4pm and 7pm based on current models.
Looks like Access R has more prefrontal, but a bit hard to tell without an hourly breakdown between 4 and 7.
Isn't there too much NW in it? We haven't done well out of any of the systems this year.
And IMO this Friday/Saturday will see more of the same. I am inclined to say LM will fair as 'well' as it did in the last system.
I'm feeling good about this system, and the top up Saturday night/early Sunday will also be good. I'm thinking 15cm and 5cm.
What happened, back in the depths of winter again. So no one told the fat lady? oops
GFS upgraded, in-tune with EC, which remains steady on today's 12Z run.
GFS has more embedded troughs in the Westerly flow that puts more follow-up moisture on the board through Sunday/Monday.
AXS-R with the 80/20 (rain/snow) respective split for Friday, IMO.
The mid-latitude low will now be a 'bombing low' dropping more than 24hPa in 24 hours while tracking slowly east-southeast under the country.
I think you're talking about next Wednesday though, Craig? That's in the 'epic BBQ' thread.
Nah, talking about the low forming under the Bight early tomorrow
Argh gottcha! It's a bit of a shame for us East Coasters that she sinks so far south.
Yeah and with no real energy left in it. The Surf Coast is going to pump Saturday!! Again..
A rinse followed by snow. Where I have seen that before ?