Predictions 18-22 August

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Aug 9, 2016.

  1. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Raiders just fully give it to the Storm bru !
    The Vibe just turned the corner . :)
     
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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic.
     
  3. derwent

    derwent Well-Known Member

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    :thumbs:
     
  4. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    I see cold air at level. Me thinks snow is coming.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS 12Z (and to a degree CMC) agrees with EC follow up on Mon. Won't be a hellovalot but worthy of ~10cm on top of the 10-15cm on Friday night IMO.
     
  6. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Anyone noticed that the weather model forecasts are now gone from Wundermap? Can't see them anywhere or any mention of paying to see them/etc.
     
  7. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Yeah noticed that also
     
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  8. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    There is a deep fetch coming straight off the Antarctic Mainland mid way across the Indian so you are right, this one should pack some very cold air.

    Just need a moisture injection.
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC still looking good, GFS coming into line
    IMO





    IMO looks less prefrontal on today's runs.
    As it stands I'm expecting 10-20mm rain and around 30cm post cold change. Lots of westerly so that might hurt Buller.
     
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  10. Coldcfc

    Coldcfc Just Registered

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    Not in your time frame, but here's a freebie.[​IMG]
     
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  11. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member
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    I am starting to get excited about 20 - 22nd.Looking better for a moderate dump.
    Long way out but that 25th looks BANG.
     
  12. Martyr

    Martyr Active Member

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  13. jonathanc

    jonathanc Dedicated Member

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    Based on ACCESS-R the bulk of cold air looks like arriving between 4 - 7pm Friday (Thredbo / Perisher) with a NW wind at the time. I'm trying to work out when the moisture gets there - maybe it turns to snow a little earlier given orographic effects?
     
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  14. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    Could this be the season opener for Lake Mountain?
     
  15. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Starting to look all good
    That would be nice
     
  16. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Thanks coldcfc. Thats her.
     
  17. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    This might have legs.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Winds @ 850hPa don't exactly blow my hair back (literally) for adiabatic cooling.
    [​IMG]
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Temps at 850 looking better on stormcast 00z run too (4-7 pm Friday) Maybe just 10 mm prefrontal am hoping.
     
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  20. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, thats not the one i was watching. The one I flagged arrives a few days later.

    Still early.

    But this weekend is looking much better IMO
     
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  21. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Long wave is definitely looking flat tomorrow but it looks to build back to a solid 5 node pattern by the 22nd.

    The Vibe is starting to return IMO Olympic Style
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC00Z looking on track. EC like Monday, just as much as Friday night so a better scenario for snow than GFS. A little cut-off pool could be the gift that just keeps on giving Monday IMO.

    Monday EC 00Z
    [​IMG]
     
    #172 POW_hungry, Aug 16, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2016
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Yeh, EC not letting go of this.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    CMC is similar, low is stronger, but further south.

    [​IMG]
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Even GFS starting to come to the party. IMO
     
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  26. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

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    7 days from 25th booked. 5th trip down to Thredbo this season and I just get a vibe about this period seems like we have a line of little systems.

    So far my luck has been #%?! - maybe just maybe it has changed

    Good things come to those who wait
     
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  27. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Pressures could be a tad lower IMO
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    FWIW AXSG going for ~10cm Mondee. Likely minimum outcome IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  29. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Baw Baw and LM may get some love at last.
     
  30. jonathanc

    jonathanc Dedicated Member

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    Why's that? From that direction shouldn't the air at 850hpa be rising from around 1400m to over 2100m when it hits the main range?
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Wind is a driver for both orographic lift & adiabatic cooling. At this stage GFS suggest relatively light-moderate winds (20-25km/h) at 1500m so the rate of cooling will be less than that of stronger winds at the same pressure/height.
     
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  32. jonathanc

    jonathanc Dedicated Member

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    That chart shows 25 knots, which is closer to 50km/h.

    Your point is still correct though, it's not like the wind is up around 100km/h. I saw the highest wind speed of 50kts (which would be plenty fast enough) and just asumed it was over the alps. Looked at the chart properly and it's miles away.
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Shit, I am drunk. 20-25kts. My bad.
     
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  34. jonathanc

    jonathanc Dedicated Member

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    Could someone please post the GFS 6hr precipitation charts for Friday? I can't find them.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    7pm Friday to 7pm Saturday (snowfall for the resorts IMO)
    [​IMG]
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Thursday eve to Friday eve (rainfall below 1800m) IMO
    [​IMG]
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS progged peak snowfall depth as below (Friday night-Saturday). I still like it for up to 15cm for the resorts IMO.
    [​IMG]
    Monday may see a little more again.
     
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  38. jonathanc

    jonathanc Dedicated Member

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    Cheers - exactly what I was after (pre/post frontal).

    I'm thinking it might turn to snow at resort level a little earlier than 7pm - somewhere between 4pm and 7pm based on current models.

    Looks like Access R has more prefrontal, but a bit hard to tell without an hourly breakdown between 4 and 7.
     
  39. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    Isn't there too much NW in it? We haven't done well out of any of the systems this year.
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    And IMO this Friday/Saturday will see more of the same. I am inclined to say LM will fair as 'well' as it did in the last system.
     
  41. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    I'm feeling good about this system, and the top up Saturday night/early Sunday will also be good. I'm thinking 15cm and 5cm.
     
  42. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    What happened, back in the depths of winter again. So no one told the fat lady? oops
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS upgraded, in-tune with EC, which remains steady on today's 12Z run.

    GFS has more embedded troughs in the Westerly flow that puts more follow-up moisture on the board through Sunday/Monday.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #193 POW_hungry, Aug 17, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2016
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    AXS-R with the 80/20 (rain/snow) respective split for Friday, IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  45. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    The mid-latitude low will now be a 'bombing low' dropping more than 24hPa in 24 hours while tracking slowly east-southeast under the country.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I think you're talking about next Wednesday though, Craig? That's in the 'epic BBQ' thread.
     
  47. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Nah, talking about the low forming under the Bight early tomorrow :)
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Argh gottcha! It's a bit of a shame for us East Coasters that she sinks so far south.
     
  49. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Yeah and with no real energy left in it. The Surf Coast is going to pump Saturday!! Again..
     
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  50. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    A rinse followed by snow. Where I have seen that before ?
     
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