Predictions 18-22 August

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Aug 9, 2016.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Looking interesting on today's 12Z run for front due late 18th, snow through 19th Aug.
    You guessed it, no shortage of pre-frontal progged but looks to have good follow-up snow fall on the 19th.
    Cold enough to snow well below the resorts, but nothing overly low-level.

    EC & GFS aligned at this point. And to a lesser extent so is The Canuck.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #1 POW_hungry, Aug 9, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2016
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Depending on the arrival of the cold air I see maybe 20-40cm in it at this stage.
     
  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    It's looking good precipitation and temperature wise. I see up to 35cm in it IMO
     
  4. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I struggle to see how we can be predicting with the same level of confidence for the event on the 9th to 11th compared to an event on the 18th August.

    I think we are placing to much emphasis on Models 240 hrs out.

    But having said that I like what I see. Pretty keen to see a dump from the SSW.
     
  5. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    As I posted yesterday, the models have been good at sniffing at 10 days so was surprised nothing had popped up..also going off the Spag it has been a solid rhythm all winter of 1, 1, 1,2,3 or cha; cha; . cha cha cha.
    Wednesday should be the beginning of cha, cha, cha, I was wondering where the third cha had gone.
     
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  6. Driftwood

    Driftwood Active Member

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    Access G and JMA both like it as well. Might be more coincidence than theory but the Southern Ocean appears to like the full moon cycle this season.
     
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  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Bom Cha cha Cha

    I just think at 240 hrs out need to increase spatial scale so you get a sense of what is comming (possible).

    [​IMG]

    Cut off 384 hrs out. LOL
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    AAO forecast for next week looks pretty good. Watch this one upgrade IMO.
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I think it's fair to say we all accept it's far out (240hrs), but it's no coincidence most models going with the flow here.
    GFS 00Z
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    So we be seeing it at 6 & 7 O'clock here.
    Rather meh leading into it at this stage IMO.
     
  11. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    no I think its the blob at 8 o'clock
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    The node is at 9 o'clock on that tropo. It's under South Africa ATM.
     
  13. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    not much of it there tho.?
    Hence me looking at 7 and follow up.
    The real bombs are quite obvious to this punter.
    Will watch this with a bit moar interest as I'm on the hill later next week .
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Latest EC run shows it peaking too early (like so many this year) IMO

     
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  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I'm struggling with the timing ....
    Was giving it week and a half to rotate180.
     
  16. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    no that's way too swift. 28 -30 days for the full rotation.
     
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  17. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yes onto that as a ballpark.
     
  18. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Spag has said that for days...
     
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  19. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    EC 00UTC showing it peaking too early, but early days and still plenty of room for improvement. As @Hermon has already mentioned the AAO forecast is looking good for next week so give it a few more days......What I do like is that there is literally no H to block it and the H belt in general is nicely north so there's certainly some positive signs there......

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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  21. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    EC 12UTC - progression not looking quite right IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Is winter finished ?

    Everything has downgraded today.

    :(:cry:
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Access G is the only hope.

    [​IMG]
     
  25. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    We are due for a sneaky surpriser. Sorry, have been offline for a while (stupid phone virus) so haven't been tracking anything the last few weeks but the Vortex is looking ok after we get rid of the current and trailing highs.

    A pair of lows drop into the mix either side of South Africa so should be hopefully enough to shake things up.

    Its not all doom and gloom just yet. Give it 3 days to settle and then take anothe look at the Polar chart. Might be pleasently surprised IMO.
     
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  26. seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

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    Get on and buy your September tickets now :out:
     
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  27. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Time to turn the vegie patch over for yet another early spring.
     
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  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Looks WA peak to SE slider to me ATM.
    Deja vu
     
    #28 The Plowking, Aug 10, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2016
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  29. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Sort of glad my Aussie season ends early September , its sad that I am glad at that though :(
     
  30. seekingpow

    seekingpow Dedicated Member

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    SMH spruiking end of winter this arvo as well
     
  31. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Bet it's not !!
     
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  32. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Of course they are, f$&k I hate the media always trying to spread the hype and BS-ometer readings around. The funny thing is, so many people will believe it 'because the media told me' :whistle:

    :end rant:

    Back on topic, agree with @Jellybeans1000 give it a few days to a week or so before calling winter over. After I jinxed it by calling q big 2nd half of August, early September could now be looking like a good time.....
     
  33. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Emotional Potent Over Simplifications. A warm day in august = climate change Armageddon. A cold cold winters day = a minor cold patch.

    people believe what they are told to believe. its just easier but less rewarding.

    i found a bit oh hope below on the latest GFS.

    [​IMG]
     
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  34. BlueHue

    BlueHue Dedicated Member

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    We should be thankful, they've just guaranteed the return of winter (cause since when do the papers get it right) but everyone will think snow season is done and turn to other pursuits. Result is return to winter and no crowds for those in the know :) Of course I am expecting kids 3&4 by years end so I won't be skiing this season, or the next...... or probably the next one after that.

    No idea what to make of this front, too much variation in models for now to get an idea of how it may play out but with the AAO in negative territory and forecasts indicating it will dip further, another strong front before the spring thaw really cranks up seems a good bet.
     
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  35. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Keep an eye on the Low sitting halfway between 60E and 120E.

    Lots of room to its north and embedded fronts, including possible cold cutoff.

    Not over by a long shot.
     
  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Yep its all location location, plenty of action this year in the southern ocean.
     
  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Here tis.
    Needs a little bit of love tho
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    @The Fallen is actually referring to the node following this one in discussion (18/19th), due around late August.
    But yep, not much left to see here now for the 18/19th, it's got early peak and ridge out written all over it....
     
    #38 POW_hungry, Aug 11, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2016
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  39. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yea I see 264 (21st) on 7wombats post now I look again.
    Need another cuppa .
     
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  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Mine be showing the one below Tassie.
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    That's the one, although today's run has her flat lining with a spring-like high throwing a pillow over her face...
     
  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    with a hint of an ECL.
    [​IMG]
     
  43. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, mine is the one after, as POW has mentioned. Long way out but it has been penciled in for possible future advancement.
     
  44. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Wrong thread, but spag says potentially very strong system penetrating deep into mainland
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO this just looks like rain on the 17 & 18th (perhaps a bit of love above 1900m) with dribs and drabs of snow following. Nothing very good IMO.
     
    #45 Claude Cat, Aug 11, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2016
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  46. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    This. I think we will need to wait for the next front to get anything good. As others had said, Winter is finishing :( and Spring is coming in.
     
  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Not to bad its still there. Could develop.

    [​IMG]

    What The Fallen is Claiming.

    [​IMG]
     
  48. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

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    So does anyone hold any hope for an upgrade for 18th, 19th & 20th? Are we still too far out to right it off?
     
  49. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I was just looking at this....192 shows it gets ridged for now

    [​IMG]
     
  50. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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