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Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2017.
I completely disagree
GFS - Tuesday wet and warm ,Wed drier , Thursday 15- 20 snow, Friday/ Sat perhaps another 10 cm is what i see atm IMO.
EC cleared out by Friday.
Basicly a period of air mass advection- in this case veering winds causing warm air advection. Tricky situation regarding air mass movement when topography is included into the equation. Hopefully by late Wed we can return to a more favourable balance.
For NSW or VIC? Or both?
More NSW I was looking at.
GFS consistently showing high moisture totals. Tuesday definitely wet; Wednesday probably still wet - Maybe late Wednesday goodness returns. Thursday on looking better.
I see what you did there.
what does the dotted line on thursdays Bom 4 dayer signify?
A trough of goodness and pow pow friday
Trough. There is a legend at the top
Looking mighty fine from the 17th through to the 19th.
Longer duration event on GFS
CMC is siding with EC
GFS has very low freezing levels for the 18th in tassie
Rain totals bumped up for Tuesday. Hopefully a net gain?
Didn't know you rated @Karicta so highly Jelly
Worth throwing a sicky on Thurs IMO.
Im liking the prog temps after Thursday, but dislike moisture Tues/Wed. Looks a bit two steps back one forward for below 1700, possible gain or equal above?
Not too shabby.
Yep Thursday is mayhem. Conflicting air masses .
Does conflicting air masses mean a fair amount of instability which could lead to greater precip/snow totals?
Virtually just that. Strong divergence in that prog indicates good lift throughout the mid & upper-levels = lift and frontal development.
So should I drive up Thu night?
You'll be driving in the thick of it Thursday night. If you want to beat it to Buller, Thursday AM/Early arvo IMO.
Haven't looked at the models for a couple of days now, but wow. EC and GFS has the cold air in alot earlier (Thursday AM) with some ball breaking totals.
Thursday Arvo, Friday AM looks solid. That little washout Tuesday/Wednesday 'aint gonna matter too much come Saturday (Welcome to Australia).
IMO it looks like snow on Wednesday from mid morning above 1800, slowly lowering to 1400m or so by mid-afternoon.
Might take a bit longer at Buller, but by early am on Thursday it should all be happening IMO.
Booked in for Sat, Sun, Mon... what runs will be open in Thredbo as a result of this?
Maatee.... C'mon we're not the resorts.
Thredbo has most of the terrain open now, common sense suggests expect more of the same IMO.
I was only joking. Appears only the Schuss and Michaels Mistake not open on the trail status currently.
But kinda not though, huh...
Buller Thursday, worth it?
Check winds. Doubt any of majors will be worth a slide Thursday IMO.
Too windy, unless you wanna hike. Friday will be a much better bet. Little winds, heaps of fresh snow, if you can get up there.
06Z GFS backing off the numbers somewhat.
I'm not a believer. Sorry
A foot storm.
Above 1600 ish !!
40mm in 24 hr to 10.00 Wed.
Added up by 3hrly.
But that will probably fall as rain.
I think 30-50cm is likely throughout Thurs/Fri/Sat, with Southern resorts the lower-end of the scale.
Whilst Southern resorts will benefit here, things start to dry out Friday as winds swing out from the SW on Friday.
I do see the potential for low level snow by Friday eve for Hobart Suburbs/Southern Tas above 300m.
Snow to as low as 500/700m for Vic & NSW respectively IMO.
The mayhem also means strong likelihood for warm air advection in the vertical- figure on right = higher freeze levels.
Thoughts on this occuring @POW_hungry ?
Always love a good Trowal set-up, but I don't think so this time around. Maybe for West coast Tas?
You tend to get them in close proximity to the closed cell/cut off low, these are looking more like back-to-back fronts and troughs with the low well south of Tassie.
It's only just starting cool back down Wednesday morning.
BOM can't quite make their mind up for Tuesday. Depending on which forecast you read for Thredbo, it will either be 20-30mm or 45-60mm rain.
How you mean?
Short forecast is for more rain, ie: http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/thredbo.shtml
Whereas the weather overview is on the lower side, ie:
Guessing difference between computer forecast and computer/human forecast?
Yeah , that would be a good assumption.
I never look at the overview.
I presume it's automated.
I think , sadly the rainfall total will exceed the top end of 60mms
I'm a bit worried about the pressure on the back end. No embedded troughs ..atmosphere looks to dry out something shocking.