Predictions 15-21Aug

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Lining up across all models this morning whilst there's still rubbish (Wed) on the days ahead; Thursday eve, Friday, Saturday looks good for Falls in 20-40cm range for the majors IMO.

    Some conjecture about the follow up on the Sunday, Monday but could see totals increase if things swing in favour of a follow low arriving Sunday.

    EC ensemble liking this one also.

    EC


    GFS


    CMC
     
    #1 POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2017
  2. Kopite

    Kopite Just Registered

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    Observation: I like this suggestion
     
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  3. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings New Member
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    So where does this fit into the picture?
     
  4. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Buller special.
     
  5. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings New Member
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    And my favourite comic picture that's gets harpooned...will we be telemarking on black mtn?
     
  6. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    It fits very well. Basically all the models are lined up for Thur/Fri and Sat. Given I'm going up on the Tuesday after these systems, I am excited.
     
  7. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    And BB and LM.
     
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  8. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    yep. implied.
    Buller/Stirling/Bawbs/Lake Mountain.
     
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  9. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    GFS still has it arriving earlier than the 18th.
     
  10. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings New Member
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    And my favourite comic strip picture that's gets harpooned..wi
    its interesting that this year has thrown up some rare events. The last weekend and this projected one where Turnbull and the short guy could throw snowballs,at each other.. maybe similar to a Canberra Raiders game (rugby league for you mexicans) where the game was in 10cm of the white stuff and you couldn't see the try line..
    I'm also watching but for an extra week... 1 week Tredbo booked.
     
  11. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Looks like a polar modified special. Probably not much moisture in this system.
     
  12. Adamski

    Adamski Active Member

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    I've booked Sat, Sun and Mon across these dates so bring it on. Did i hear you guys say Blizzard of Oz' Pet Puppy?
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    15-25mm Thursday eve to Saturday eve. I am not so sure you could say it's lacking moisture. This is a garden variety frontal system for this time for the year, not an anomaly like last weekend IMO.
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    I've heard that one before.
     
  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    LOL
     
  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    The positioning of the trailing high is going to determine how this one goes for us. At the moment, it looks like it really really wants to set up nice under WA, but there's a long way to go.

    This says plenty of power/cold/potential for this period, and also somewhere around the 24-25th too:
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    those anchored highs have been sadly lacking this year, as we remarked to each other through the wet at Buller on Monday....
     
  18. Deanski

    Deanski Active Member

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    20-40cm now!!!....wow....go Pow you are on fire. :).......have you slept??
     
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    The only thing special about Buller (weather) is rain at -3C.
     
  20. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Main reason why people underestimate Buller.
     
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  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    In fact, at -3C you're at the crossover point for rain/snow in a westerly, because the snow level is low enough that the surrounding hills to the W are getting snow on them, so Buller does get snow out of a W under those conditions. But that's pretty damn rare.
     
  22. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    rarer than Monday....
     
  23. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings New Member
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    I've noticed that you've not made in in here until you get a yellow "stay on topic" card from CC..
    I just love the forums in the ability to keep our interest up so well on a prediction.
    I predict there will be a freeze-thaw here, and a host of pissed of Thredboland kids..
    does this rate..
     
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  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    fishing for "stay on topic".... well now I've seen everything...
     
  25. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Starting to rear up in the last pane on the 4 day, loving the position of the trailing high and little chance of ridging but it is still early days:

    [​IMG]
     
    #25 FourSquare04, Aug 10, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2017
  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Oh yeah, that's a setup...
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    If I am to be a picky bitch though, can someone do something about that forehand trough through WA. It's rank.
     
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  28. Belly

    Belly Addicted Member
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    The date range for this thread might be a bit narrow based on the navy models I just reviewed ;) .. Looking good for some type of weather event all the way through from late the 15th through to the 24th'ish.
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Agreed @Belly the weather event beforehand is looking 'fickle' for snow and the subsequent follow-up is tarot card reading stuff. The 17-21AUG is looking our best bet for a gain, for now.
     
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  30. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    I predict great things from Wednesday evening!
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Polar outbreak by the weekend on GFS's 00Z run.
    Snot in strange places kinda stff
    [​IMG]
     
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  32. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    I tells ya, GFS is on a roll. ;)
     
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  33. Deanski

    Deanski Active Member

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    F*^%in' great....we are down there for only the weekend of the 18th to 20th.
     
  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Damn i hope this eventuates............................ . Old school Southerly outbreak.
     
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  36. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    The iceberg formally known as Tasmania! Ballarat likely to live up to its reputation too.
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Backed off quite a bit on EC 00Z, with a ridge set-up sliding it quite quickly after it. Still has a long way to go.
    [​IMG]
     
  38. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    Have you seen a man eat his own head?

    "S.O.T."
     
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  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    GFS says a tad wet in Western Arthurs.
     
  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    and EC for comparison ^
    *deduct 5cm from this as included next 3 days.
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  42. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Two systems IMO. One coming in next Thursday evening, coming over the Alps Friday, clearing Saturday. Going for 25cm on EC.



    The next one comes in over Sunday, into Monday. This could have potential for very nice snow, as there's no prefrontal and it's very cold. Couldn't go into depths though, too far out.

    Very nice looking period IMO, lowish snow possible.
     
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  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO the 15th & 16th looks like a bit of a "clear" snow event prior to this.
     
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  44. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    I hope this eventuates - 5 nights booked at Smiggins (Perisher) from 20/8.
     
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  45. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  46. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Similarly invested - 23rd to 27th Aug at Buller.
     
  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  48. Snowcone

    Snowcone Active Member

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    I'll be there too. Kids racing?
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC really likes this system Thursday eve, Friday.
    Solid SW fetch to suit the Southern resorts as pointed out by @mick chopps earlier.

    Lacks a hook or enclosed low for sustained falls but I am seeing a quick succession of fronts and troughs, with 20-40cm likely at this point IMO. Some hook would be nice to limit Tas shadowing as we see it bite in from the South on the Friday arvo.
    I am not seeing follow up on Sunday with the High and LWT driving this system and ridging in swiftly after.
     
    #49 POW_hungry, Aug 11, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2017
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Upgrade totals for EC/yrno
    Friday is looking like a stonker. Perisher:
     
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