Predictions 10th to 13th July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.

  1. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    Around 1130. PM tonight precipitation/snow rates should be full on.
     
  2. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    dem ignorant gappers who believe blatant social media hype reports.
     
  3. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Probably see some around Kmart on Burwood/Blackburn as this is the highest point in suburban Melbourne.
     
  4. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    surrey hills area is about 120m ASL as you mentioned Snorkler.
    The closer to the dandenongs the more likely.
    of course there could be none anywhere other than the old VFL park site just for fun.. and they want to knock Etihad down ...:mad:
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Yeh my old place in Burwood East was 100m from there and I had snow in Aug/Sep 1995
     
  6. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Arthurs Seat would be a chance I'd have thought?
     
  7. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    yes for sure
     
  8. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    fire up the chair lift...
     
  9. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Its the Mount Lofty of the South!
     
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  10. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Maybe I'll see some in doncaster, sitting on the hill behind Balwyn North, have achieved a little cooling over that hill before hitting us. Doncaster Hill is only slightly below Burwood East but the parking lot is higher.
     
  11. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Maybe Snorkler , but a lot of foam in the form of heat is generated from Westfield Doncaster ...
    All of those bay maries full of food , and store lights.
     
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  12. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    She canna take any more cap'n
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    FROM BOM
    Hobart area

    Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers and snow flurries. Snow settling to around 100 metres in the morning. Possible hail in the morning. Winds
     
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  14. skiingtk

    skiingtk Active Member

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    ;)
    Claude sounds like you lived near Worthing Ave...off high st...;)
     
  15. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  16. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    At around what time do we expect the bulk of the moisture to reach the Vic alps, specifically Buller/Stirling? Seems to have been somewhat of a fizzer as far as precip is concerned. Or am I being impatient...?
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I think this is good as it gets IMO
    You'll periods of snow showers into tomorrow.
     
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  18. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Thanks CC. I was really hoping for something to ski on by Friday at Stirling.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    What makes you think it's a fizzer?
    We're probably about halfway through IMO. Buller has done well by the obs here and on the radar. Maybe 10-15cm? Hard to say with the wind. Expect frequent (possibly heavy) falls throughout tonight and into tomorrow AM.
    Looks like another few bands moving through with some good falls around 10-11pm tonight IMO.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Remember this was never a "quantity" system. You'll still probably have enough to have fun.
     
  21. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    I guess I feel that way because it's been deceptively dry here on the Peninsula for most of the day and the rain radar looks scattered across the alps. Fingers crossed for more.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Radar doesn't give a clear picture of what's happening over the Alps.
     
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Latest Vic BOM saying snow down to 500m tonight and 300m tomorrow
     
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  24. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Tropical feed looks to be getting involved with the #bigfreeze for NSW.
    Potential to go off it's nut if this continues.
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    A lot of high level cloud in there. The patches you see just North of the Dividing Range are frontal, they're just overlapping.
     
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  26. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    From BOM - Perisher currently -3.4 and 20.4mm in the can thus far today.
    Sorry, just realised I'm in the prediction tread not obs.
     
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  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I observe the Rangers are the biz so far and predict they going to be a lot of fun. :cheers:
     
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  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Serious question.
    So high level tropical feed meets cold uppers shown here. ?

     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Correct, and higher. It's an upper level trough - so as you say it's sitting in the upper weather atmosphere. At 500mb you'll definitely get the cold frontal air mixing with the trough but largely the frontal air is often drier at this level.

    We've had a mix of Cirrus & Cirrostratus passing over Sydney all day. Even some alto-stratus in thicker parts. These are from maybe 6000m right up into the jetstreams ~10,000m. And in the lower range of that you'll get rain/virga but unlikely it will have much input into this front, for the alps atleast.
     
    #529 POW_hungry, Jul 12, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2016
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  30. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Gauge died at 5.30pm
     
  31. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Not sure about that. Moved with last update
     
  32. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Looks to be a touch too far north but I wouldn't be surprised if Selwyn does really well overnight due to this interaction....
     
  33. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    Its getting a gnarly sting jet appearance in the tail of that low. Big blow.
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Maybe not.
    A little more reading and the cloud types Pow mentions don't seem to contain enough moisture & when they hit the cold drier air doesn't help much.
    Hence the Virga aka dry thunderstorm .
    http://weather.about.com/od/v/g/virga.htm
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yep, that's where NW Tassie's meat and potatoes are.
     
  36. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Soz gang above of mine should be in obs or bbq.
     
  37. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    I observe Canberra forecast for Wednesday has the Snow icon present:

    Wednesday 13 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 7
    Showers, possible snow. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Canberra area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers in the morning with possible snow. Winds west to northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h tending north to northwesterly and becoming light in the evening.
     
  38. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

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    Was a big 4inchs ha, hope you enjoyed the white stuff.
     
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  39. jorgo

    jorgo Active Member

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    Much left in this for tonight?
     
  40. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Not much more than a few cms at best IMO, atleast for mainland resorts. Pressures up to 1022hPa now, which tells me she's running on empty.
     
    #541 POW_hungry, Jul 13, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2016
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  42. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    I'd say everyone got this right
    No matter what was predicted, it happened somewhere
     
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  43. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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    ...NEXT!
     
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