Predictions 10-13 August

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Aug 6, 2017.

  1. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

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    Dying.... As is the wind. Might even be sunny!
     
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  2. NjB

    NjB Active Member

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    How bad is the wind going to be at Buller tomorrow?
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Ah, there's a strong wind warning?
     
  4. Sbooker

    Sbooker Active Member

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    Anyone care to give me an idea of how wet I will get while skiing Thredbo next Monday/Tuesday 14/15? A while out so it's understandable different weather sites have different opinions.
    Thanks.
     
  5. Ian

    Ian Active Member
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    Turns out there's a rotary tactile stimulator for that.

    "The perception of wetness did not, however, differ significantly across body sites and there were no significant interactions between wetness level and body site.

    Basically you can only be 'wet' or 'dry'

    The present study emphasizes the importance of understanding how bottom-up and top-down processes interact to generate complex perceptions."


    Depends if you're a bottom-up or top-down kind of guy...
     
  6. GNF

    GNF New Member

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    I am trying to look at this system with a positive mind (as a Buller skier). Perhaps the modeling will improve over the coming days but unfortunately I only see rain for Buller. The system is too weak, too warm and Buller cops the dreaded Westerlies. I have seen systems like this wack Buller with 30 - 40mm of rain with the rest of the resorts getting off with little rain or even light snow.

    That said, there is still a chance Buller can get some snow, particularly on Friday night.

    I will be able to report from the mountain.
     
  7. 1000m

    1000m Active Member

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    That's a big drop. How will it translate to here when it hits?
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    It doesn't 'hit' here. It slides SE.
    I don't see anything to suggest that sort of rainfall. We're talking 10-15mm max - even with orographic lift IMO. This is not going to be a system of any, or much anomaly, range, depth or significance for the Aus alps.
    ... but the prospect for 5 maybe 10 cents is still there.
     
    #108 POW_hungry, Aug 9, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2017
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  9. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

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    If look at trends , which in reality models reflect by design. We are looking at a declining situation. In other words . What is progged for the forthcoming days may not occur. The westerly belt is there for sure. However it keeps stepping down in latitude.
     
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  10. NjB

    NjB Active Member

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    As a non-weather person this confuses me. I can see now there is a warning but the BoM Buller forecast itself still says "Winds north to northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h." Anyway - lift hold looks likely now then :(
     
  11. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Not too bad .
    [​IMG]
     
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  12. filski

    filski Old And Crusty
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    Yup, conditions look like improving as we get closer. I think me spending $40 on protection for the face did it.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    It does seem a little at odds with the strong wind warning.
    It will be blowy, but Buller tends to deal with that reasonably well. Difficult to say what will be on hold (if any) and what won't.
     
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Date range adjusted to include the 10th as we're discussing that too.
     
  15. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

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    The rate we're going..its Pina Colada time on Saturday
     
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  16. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member
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    And there's a comp on at Perisher too.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO 00EC has backed off the amount of moisture for 11-12th. 5cm looks about it above 1500m
     
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  18. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    There the week after.
    Ah well.
    Good base......

    Going all WA-centric again.
     
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  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Not as wet as if you were at Buller in a westerly.
     
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  20. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Efa
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BOM bringing things back a little more inline with what models suggest , in the Alpine Forecast this morning (5-15cm). They've jumped around a bit with this one.
     
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  22. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman Dedicated Member

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    ben will get more pow :)
     
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  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Doing well is the ben!