PS - Gerg are you going to post your depth projection?.... W
Bored with that. Even the 1992 weird late-fall interest has faded. It's now basically a 1:1 line with a bit of peak timing mismatch. (The 7-day moving average peaks on 3 September at 177.5cm, unsmoothed.)
As requested. Blue is leap year, maroon the following year. Some years ago someone else posted they noticed a 2 year cycle.
The Fourier analysis posted above shows a weak 2-year cycle. There's also a weaker-still cycle centred near 4 years (after smoothing) - hence the leap years.
Real? Nope. Except that ENSO has a quasi-cycle in the 3-5 year territory, and peak snow depth is weakly correlated with ENSO.
We have a new peak ... by a whole 3mm A bit of weirdness there. Looks like the hydro snuck in an extra end of month reading (the 139.7 - not a Thursday).
Here's the peak projection for those still interested: This simple projection is starting to seriously break down now. We know the peak depth did not exceed 148cm by 10 September, but this simple regression includes many years that peaked earlier - which this year can't. So a more sophisticated analysis is needed. Warrie?
Rather late but snow depths for Thurs 10th. How it held steady - OK, it went up 0.3cm!!would be less of a mystery if I was paying more attention. 3 Mile dam is gone and Deep Ck has severely depleted. Year--- Depth–cm Peak cm 2000--- 260f --- 262 2001--- 168f --- 196 2002--- 158f --- 176 2003--- 162r --- 201 2004--- 187f --- 228 2005--- 135f --- 150 2006--- 58f --- 85 2007--- 131f --- 164 2008--- 150f --- 174 2009--- 148r --- 148 So it's still better than 05, 06 and 07 for this date and back to 9th place for the peak total. I think I'll be sticking with July for the annual trip. Season 09 has passed its use-by date. Sorry Gerg, thats about as sophisticated my analysis is going to get!.... W
Not long now. Be interesting to see if the melt rate is as fast as 2008.
I fixed up the projection. Makes more sense now. Still not quite right, because the chance of beating 148cm must fall as the current depth falls below that.
Peak depth isn't everything (but I'm assuming we've reached it in 2009), but for a few years I have made these graphs that show the peak snow depths recorded by Snowy Hydro at their sites, the red line shows this, with the black line being a linear trend over the entire period:
Snow shallowness for Thurs 17th.Deep Ck has now melted away too and with WZ going for 40 to 80mm of rain by Wednesday at PB then...... Year--- Depth–cm Peak cm 2000--- 245f --- 262 2001--- 154f --- 196 2002--- 158f --- 176 2003--- 193r --- 201 2004--- 191f --- 228 2005--- 126f --- 150 2006--- 30f --- 85 2007--- 131f --- 164 2008--- 155f --- 174 2009--- 121f --- 148 So it's only better than 05 and 06 for this date and back to 9th place for the peak total. And yet the black ash from the '03 fires was still getting more deeply buried in a late season dump this time 6 years ago.Oh well at least Lake Eucumbene is at it best for 3 years and rising to 30%.... W
What % of the increased melt is caused by decrease of albedo...relative to changes is surface consistency (i.e having hot dust pieces raising the temperature of the adjacent ice) I wonder.
I suppose you could determine that by assessing the melt rates against the diurnal cycle.
Peak depth isn't everything (but I'm assuming we've reached it in 2009), but for a few years I have made these graphs that show the peak snow depths recorded by Snowy Hydro at their sites, the red line shows this, with the black line being a linear trend over the entire period:
Great to see these types of graphs...tks
Question: Is it possible to split these linear trends into 3 graphs of 20 years each ? Looking at the general figures, the trend we would probably see is the latter 20 years with a steeper decline than the 1st. Are there figures for earlier years that we can do the same on?
Depths for dust storm day + 1. WZ went for 40 to 80mm of rain by Wednesday at PB and they got 45mm in 96 hrs to 9am Wed so prediction covered it.But snow lost 30cm Year--- Depth–cm --------Peak cm 2000--- 205f-- 40 lost --- 262 2001--- 120f-- 35 lost --- 196 2002--- 136f-- 22 lost --- 176 2003--- 170f-- 23 lost --- 201 2004--- 188f-- 03 lost --- 228 2005--- 125f-- 01 lost --- 150 2006--- 030f -- 12 lost --- 85 2007--- 113f -- 18 lost --- 164 2008--- 108f-- 47 lost --- 174 2009--- 091f -- 30 lost --- 148 Figures as rubbery as.So it's only better than 06 for this date and also stuck on 9th place for the peak total. Still the 26th is being quoted as blizzards.. but as to how much remains by the 1st only time will tell.... W
not bad at all to still have 19.1 cm at deep creek considering there was nothing there before the weekend. I'm not so impressed with the Spencer's Creek measurement of 112.8 cm although I guess once the prefrontal before the snow is taken into account its not that bad. If the snow this weekend comes to fruition, the measurement next week shouldn't be to bad either, most definitely lower but hopefully not the normal sharp spring decline normally seen.
