GFS tends to get a bit excited in these scenarios. Perhaps divide the figure by 2 and it's more realistic.
EC has significantly downgraded tomorrows event.

Is there still a high chance of a BIG storm??
That stormcast chart has downgraded the chance of big ones.

Tomorrow morning is a chance.
With a cooler day today, we just don't have the same energy levels.

That is sad.

Brewing up in the west of Victoria.
Not sure it will make it to Melbourne.

BOM has done a long range christmas forecast for Melbourne - indicating it's going to be warm and stormy.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/early-...1214-2beik.html

Weatherzone not BOM!

This is what Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Rod Dickson said. (from your link.)

'the forecast was "too far ahead to be considered reliable".

"We issue seven-day forecasts because that is, really, the limit of reliability," said Mr Dickson.
"Some of the models can see a little bit beyond that ... but at those sort of timescales, things can change quite markedly. So we stick to seven days."'

I agree with the BOM. Give it a couple of days and we'll be in the EC window ...

Some nice storms this morning!

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar/vic

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR023.loop.shtml

Edit: enough to put out a warning according to BOM!

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV65752.shtml

snow777, you worry me! You like storms?

Yes, I like storms - just as long as they don't score a direct hit on the top of my head with a large amount of electricity (or cannon-ball sized hail)!!

Christmas forecasts.
EC suggesting a damp Christmas for the SE







Looks like Christmas Eve in Melbourne and Christmas day in NSW will be damp. Coolish too.
Looks warm to hot in Perth.

Some good rain and storms possible tomorrow in VIC.

Good. No fires

30c here in Jindy today. The lake looks primed for a dip this afternoon.

I'll be down next week loweee... along with cold air..

Weather in Sydney has been plain shit for the last few days. Overcast and cold.

not so cold in melbourne today

been on the pushy doing some shopping in sydney road, a tad warm

cloud mass seems to be moving over

NSW going to get smashed for the next few days.

Was still just over 40°C here in Adelaide at 6:30pm. Dropping away quite quickly now though, 11 degrees cooler within the hour, now sitting around 29°C. Needed the cool, plants were suffering, giving the tomatoes a soaking now.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar/nsw

Holy bat balls...Look at NSW explode

yep it's coming.
Nothing much here in Melbourne today, only the odd very light shower. At least it's cooler after a horrible night. Hottest night in December on record (27.4)

btw Santa just went across the radar.

A bit early isn't he?

I'd suggest Norad Santa tracking is more accurate.

http://www.noradsanta.org/en/track.html

will get Poppy onto Norad

Looks like a winter day here - all drizzly and cloudy - but the temp is about 15c! The soil is getting very dry so I'm hoping that we will get some proper rain soon.

(I'm near Narbethong, Vic at the moment)

This looks hot!

Yep, Thursday looks warm in the SE and Friday ddeidedly hot!

No significant rain for VIC in the next week at least.

Stinking hot (40+) for the next 5 days. Just had the warning so that I can organise fire crews.