rolling rolling rolling.... Roll on the 00z.

IMO A single bite of the cherry for heavy dumpage overnite tuesday still. Rain turning to snow in the early hours as the freeze level drops. If I had to guess the timing of the passage of the boundary, it'd be between 6 & 10am on Tuesday morning. Very difficult to guage what the net balance will be, still going with +20cm by the end of the week in NSW and more in vic but confidence is dropping.

*I still have some faith that temps generally a a couple of degrees colder than expected as we see in the Obs thread.

Agree with this, IMO instead of dropping (which would have broken the barrier) the ECL is slowing generally. The blocking image shows this too.

Agree that it looks like rain tomorrow before turning to snow early am Tuesday. IMO

Looks like a bit of rain tomorrow (5 to 10mm IMO) but Yr No. still going for substantial amounts of snow for Hotham at least for tomorrow night and all day Tuesday.

Vic bom has blizzards for Tuesday.

Back for 2012

I can see rain on the cards for tomorrow IMO.
Tuesday I can seen a chance for some good falls IMO.
We should see 20+ cm By the end of this week IMO.

I agree. More snow will start to fall Monday night and.be at village level by Wednesday IMO.

Stay on topic

Well, divide that by 2 perhaps? IMO GFS overboard as it's want to do.

Looks like the cold air won't really hit until about midday Tuesday according to the GFS model. Then 15-25cm of natural snow and excellent snow making conditions for the rest of the week IMO.

IMO latest runs of GFS have the cold air delayed until later tomorrow.



AXS too. Perhaps 10am in the south and 4pm in the North.

Know you know why it's called the pub run - that one had its back teeth floating

. 3am run actually has more rain than that.

Interesting AXS, UKmet & EC has the low bombing around 989 hPa just off Eden on Monday night, while GFS has it well into the Tasman.

Nah, still early morning transition for temps IMO. Those 850's have low heights ~1400m at 10am on Tuesday.

Jane Bunn is going for 30-40cm above 1700mm or so. Very optimistic IMO, but I hope she's right.

she has been spot on for the last two systems...

Vic BOM has issued flood watches and warnings.

Bom saying 30-40mm for Melbourne, 100mm for Eastern Vic

It's looking like the incoming is wet.

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds, heavy rain and damaging surf
for people in the Snowy Mountains, Metropolitan, South Coast, Illawarra, Hunter and Southern Tablelands forecast districts

Issued at 11:08 am EST on Monday 4 June 2012.
Weather Situation

HIGH WINDS AND LARGE WAVES TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NSW FROM TONIGHT

A deepening low pressure system is expected to move along the southern NSW coast Monday night and Tuesday.

Damaging winds with peak gusts around 110 km/h are forecast for the following forecast districts from tonight: South Coast, Illawarra, Metropolitan, Hunter, Snowy Mountains.

Very heavy surf, combined with water levels above the highest tide of the year, may lead to flooding of low lying areas and coastal erosion, particularly around the time of high tide, on the southern half of the coast. High tides are at around 8pm tonight, then around 9am and 9pm on Tuesday. Forecast districts to be affected include: South Coast, Illawarra, Metropolitan and Hunter. Beach conditions in these areas will be dangerous and people should stay well away from the surf and surf exposed areas.

Very heavy rain may also lead to flash flooding in the South Coast and Snowy Mountains forecast districts tonight.

Major communities to be affected by this system include:

* Bombala, Eden, Merimbula & Batemans Bay (from tonight),

* Wollongong (from overnight tonight for winds, and from later Tuesday morning for waves),

* Sydney (from later Tuesday afternoon)

* Central Coast and Newcastle (from Tuesday evening).

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
Keep clear of fallen power lines.
Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.

For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Monday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218.

Been raining lightly all morning here. By lightly I mean the raindrops themselves are light but you are getting soaked very quickly. As it's coming from the E/SE I am skeptical about the amounts, a lot of the time you will see fronts and rainbands die out just to the East of Westernport when they come up across Gippsland.

I can't see Falls getting too much snow from the East / South East. Falls generally doesn't pick up heaps from that direction due to the Topography of mountains to the east.

IMO

i was hotham one november about 5 years ago when we got 30-40cm overnight from an ECL

"3pm" 00z GFS run not much change from 9am run. Low is now the same as the other models (mostly) IMO.
Cold air not expected till later tomorrow (as per GFS chart above).

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/thredbo.shtml

25-60mm! Calling rain only til tomorrow evening...

Ack its genna get smashed... I hope some repair can be done from the follow on (imho)

yr.no has it snowing earlier than that. IMO

Going to continue to back my Tuesday morning call. Looks safe for a transition between 6am-10am IMO

Vic BOM going for heavy snow for Hotham tonight before clearing with snow showers tomorrow. Sadly it's only got heavy rain for Buller & Falls, before snow showers tomorrow. So I guess that's 1800m & above for snow.

Yeh, I think this about right. Although above 1800m should see snow a fair bit earlier, IMO