Looking quite promising for the first week of June for the whole country IMO. Models look to have backed off on moisture a bit (as usual) but if it comes off as currently projected we're looking at the first decent southerly system for winter 2012.

As i said in the May thread, 7, 11 and 13 June are my pics but anything more than 4 days out is extremely variable.

Edit:
Looks like it's now 2 and 8 June for a pretty fierce system.

So, I'm along way from being moderately competent of predicting snow in NZ, but the next 6-8 days looks pretty sweet potentially...IMO

Whats the most ideal set up for Southern lakes area?

Models starting to merge favourably for Southern Lakes next week from the 5th on tonight's runs IMO

Models have backed off the last couple of days putting the more cold unstable air out to the SE of the SouthIsland next week , the ECMWF model looks more positive this morning.

I think the best set up for snow over the Southern Lakes is the warm advective situation, sub tropical moisture moving onto the region from a northern low. Another very good set up is a polar west/southwest flow associated with a slow moving low system.

I think the sub-tropical moisture situation feeds Hutt to Ruapehu more often than not
Southern Lakes benefits from cold Arctic air and a spinning low near the Chathams
Agree that the models seemed to have backed off over the past 24 hrs, but I'm hoping this is the normal mid-cycle blues and they come back strong over the weekend

Treble Cone often does very well from moist NWers.

Was quite a temperature inversion last night. -3C at 8am this morning and around 7C-9C at Coronet Peak.

Agreed s-p. IMO the whole Tasman/Northern Low scenario tends to benefit Mackenzie Country northwards. Mostly I reckon it's because Southern Lakes is quite far west in the scheme of things and 9 times out of 10 the warm moist northern front lands at the Lakes before the cold air arrives - last weekend was a painful case in point...A low near the Chathams can be quite good but like all east/south-east systems (for the Lakes) it needs to have a lot of punch to penetrate sufficiently to drop any meaningful snow.
As for next week the main culprit I reckon is ECMWF which (as it often does) has progged the high to ridge in faster and more aggressively than the other models. This is affecting Metservice and other forecasters that use this model IMO, we had a similar situation a couple of weeks ago when Metservice forecast a week of sunny, frosty weather when in fact we ended up getting quite decent snowfall. AXS and to a lesser extent GFS have held pretty steady with the moisture and the days they have forecast it IMO. Actually I have been pretty impressed with AXS so far this winter - more accurate than last year.

Battle of the Models!
Agree that AXS has been good for NZ this year...has had temps and rainfall fairly well under control from 72 hrs...no big surprises.

Just checked the latest Metservice forecasts, and as usual the Queenstown forecast and Remarkables forecast conflict. ATM I'm hoping the mountain forecast is correct.

Inland Canterbury is the sweet spot for the warm advective snow dumps, Otago/Southland seem to often end up under ridging with a northern Low.

GFS/ECMWF bring next weeks Tasman low a bit further south now, always something to watch this time of year, sub tropical moisture meeting cold air.

Agree that the delivery of the Tasman moisture will be critical to outcome IMO.
Models have been dropping it lower in recent updates

Nz met service not really getting on board for tomorrow. 540 line well above southern lakes for 1/2 a day and they reporting freeze level of 1700m. What am I missing?

moisture progging lower

Woke up about 5am this morning feeling very warm. Was pretty obvious why when I checked my weather station.

The snow chance is Tueday into Wednseday , after that the upper air support looks poor so precipitation tends to be shallow and more coastal.

Issued: 11:24am Sunday 3 Jun 2012


SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FIORDLAND, CANTERBURY, OTAGO, SOUTHLAND

ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 11:24am Sunday 03-Jun-2012

COLD OUTBREAK TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW TO LOW LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH ISLAND

Forecast :
A front is expected to cross the South Island on Tuesday preceded by heavy rain
in western areas and strong northerlies. A very cold south to southwest
airstream behind the front should spread over Fiordland, Southland and Otago
Tuesday afternoon and reach Canterbury Tuesday evening. Snow is likely to fall
to very low levels in the southerly outbreak, including the hills of Dunedin.
Some heavy falls are possible inland. People in these areas should prepare for
difficult driving conditions, strong cold winds and a significant wind chill.The
weather should clear on Wednesday but severe frosts are likely Wednesday night.
More detailed forecasts will be issued on Monday.

Oh yes.

Pretty much perfect setup by the looks.

Metservice has also issued a severe weather outlook this afternoon detailing where they think this system will impact most. Interestingly models tonight are suggesting a slightly more northerly track for the Tasman Low.

Severe Weather Outlook

Well the metservice have rolled out their warnings, 40cm+ expected above 400m in north Canterbury/Marlborough, 25-40cm above 100m.

Hmmm, looks like most of the moisture is going to miss the Southern lakes. Boo. IMO.

Should be great for the Canterbury fields and in particular Mt Lyford and Hanmer Springs should do very well.

Looks like we are good to go, only question is how much the Cantebury fields will get

GFS (via Snowforecast.com) suggesting 60cm for BR, 40cm Mt Hutt. Cooler air predicted to arrive Late tuesday/ very early wednesday.

EC - more rain before cooler air arrives Wednesday morning, 40cm BR, 35cm Mt Hutt

ACCESS-R cooler air not until Wed morn, bulk of the precipitation further west, looks like around 20-30cm for both.

I think Qtown resorts would be lucky to get 10-15cm out of this one.



Given that temperatures should also remain negative for the rest of the week, you would think that Mt Hutt would be able to open this weekend.

Yea, looking gnarly good for Canterbury, although it is a lot of snow right on top of a lot of rain, not my preferred scenario for snowpack longevity.

Southern lakes should get a good flick towards the end of the week, looking reminiscent of opening weekend 2010.

Latest runs show moisture moving lower.

Let's hope Bom is right on this one for southern lakes.

Looking positive for a good start in Canterbury - I miss being there during these sorts of storms. Reminds me of early June 06

Canterbury and Marlborough south of Seddon
FORECAST

In Canterbury north of the Rangitata River and Marlborough south of Seddon rain is expected to turn to snow overnight Tuesday to Wednesday. In 24 hours from 9pm Tuesday 50cm to 100cm of snow may accumulate above 300 metres and 10 to 40cm may accumulate above 100 metres. Lesser amounts may fall to near sea level. South of the Rangitata River, in the 9 hours from 9pm Tuesday to 6am Wednesday 10 to 20 cm of snow may accumulate above 200 metres and lesser amounts to near sea level.

Mt Hutt temp now sitting at 0, Radar starting to light up, interestingly cold air not due for a couple of hours, remarks and coronet still above 0 although definitely cooling down.

Still good for 40-50cm in W to NW Canterbury Fields, 30cm for Mt Hutt IMO.

Remarks and Coronet Peak now below zero.

The front got a little delayed. Hit Queenstown around 6pm.

Currently 4.6C at my place, so the coldest air hasn't come through yet.

The whole system seems to be moving pretty slowly. Down below 2 deg here in Invers, we aren't really in the firing line, but might see the odd flurry tonight (currently clear skies, with a big bank of cloud to the south). It's dry out, so anything we get should hang around for a couple hours tomorrow morning. Can't wait to see what goes down in canterbury overnight...

The system was a bit of a disappointment around Queenstown. I wasn't expecting much from it, but definitely was hoping for more than we received.

No snow in Queenstown or even on the hills. There's a sprinkle on the mountains, but would be <5cm at best.

Temperature in the valley only dropped below zero at 7am this morning.

Still, good cold temps up on the mountains between -7C & -10C.