I assume you mean this map?





Which is basically what UKmet is showing above, although it has the moisture and colder air arriving a little earlier.

IMO

Thanks CC, I was looking at the WZ GFS

http://ski.com.au/weather/cola/mslp/48.html

yr.no & EC afternoon update through.
yr still reasonably bullish - 15cm for Hotham & Thredbo.
EC doesn't have anywhere near the same amount of moisture predicted as GFS or AXS for the alps (although it's got a fair bit for Gippsland).
IMO

Interesting.....the NSW BOM updated snowy mtns forecast has upped the ante and gone for freezing levels around 1000m+ for Friday & half of Saturday rising to 1500m Saturday afternoon......before that though, they're calling it all liquid precipitation......still I am pleasantly surprised with their optimistic outlook, funnily enough it seems quite similar to Jane's update from earlier today.....

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/snowy.shtml

Yeah.

I like it because its May and I will be surfing anyway, so no stress.

Secondly, there is phenomenal amount of polar activity going on around the 65 to 45 degree that should feed lots of upper level cold air into the cutoff low, and the days are getting very short, so there is not much solar energy at 37 degrees at the moment. I think it’s on for sure. Lots of wet sticky snow is good for an early based feeding into early June in the High Country, followed up by more activity.

Yeah

I must say, I'm liking the look of the arvo AXS-G, its really come a lot closer to the GFS line of thinking with a much bigger cold pool centered over the alps than it was predicting before with the colder air staying around (cold enough for 1600m anyway) from friday arvo. Plus it's also got a ton of moisture prog'd, I'm feeling a lot better now that it's come into line with the others, Perisher is gonna do well out of this IMO.

Snowing summit Mt Howitt

....and The Frog is now predicting snow on Friday and Saturday

The BoM is still quite bullish, now saying snow to 1100 metres from Friday to Sunday for Gippsland. I can see the cold pool but not thinking quite as low as 1100...

AXS is thinking along those lines this morning ice_man. Personally I cant see much in VIC below 1500m for this system. Main range will have >50cms after this has passed. As the low spins to the SE it will warm but most of the moisture should have cleared the Main Range allowing it to keep it's snowfall, not the same story for VIC IMO, there is a good chance of significant warm wet totals once the snow turns back to rain. Funny enough GFrogS has backed off on the cold pool and depth of this low, whilst AXS has pumped it up a little bit.

Sit tight, it's already happening in Adelaide, how that turns out will be a good indication of how this is going to go for the alps.

I can't see the low level love either. IMO freeze levels will be 1400m+ for most of this event. And most of that in NSW. Over Victoria it seems to be 1600m.

Vic BOM has just put out flood watches.

It's amazing how much difference a few hours makes.

Re the sat loop this morning, I'm amazed at the appearance of the NW tropical feed and the block it seems to have made on the progress of the cold air to the Alps.

It appears that the formation of a L just west of the Alps is just starting; hopefully this will aid cold air penetration from southern front...because it is there!

Fingers crossed, I hope the L forms and deepens....

Interestingly NSW BOM, mountainwatch and weatherzone are now only predicting around 10cm falling in Perisher for about 6 hrs from around 9am-3pm. All other precip as rain.

Snow charts
Weatherzone Perisher Forecast
Perisher Forecast

umm where?

Agree - There are no snow predictions besides general chat for NSW BOM. They predict this http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/thredbo.shtml

Mountain watch is computer generated

Weatherzone - Where ?

Friday 25 May

Summary
Min 1
Max 4
Rain then a few snow showers.

Alpine Area area

Cloudy. Areas of rain, tending to showers during the morning and tending to snow from about the middle of the day. The chance of thunderstorms from the late morning until late afternoon. Winds north to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h tending northwesterly 20 to 35 km/h around dawn.
Saturday 26 May

Summary
Min -2
Max 2
Rain easing. Wind easing.

Alpine Area area

Cloudy. Snow, easing during the afternoon. Winds west to northwesterly up to 45 km/h.

I'm expecting more than 50mm in some areas, oddly enough. While I'm not confident about snow, I'm definitely confident in some big rain totals, at least one location above 100mm (and looking at current charts I'm willing to bet on that!). Where tbe heaviest rain falls, though, is anyone's guess. Could be anywhere between the Otways and Sale IMO.

3pm GFS accumulations

3pm GFS suggest's freezing levels around 2000m midnight tonight, lowering to 1600m early am tomorrow, and by midday down to 1400m.
Freeze level at least 1600m until Saturday afternoon.

IMO

Looks good.

Agree with IceMan ^^^

Tropical moisture feed trumps stalled southerly front every time

Temps at Buller colder than predicted ATM IMO

Snow showing on summit cam now

If this trend continues we may see some big accumulations IMO

There will hopefully be about 10-20cm of natural snow in the NSW resorts by Sunday and coupled with the snowmakers probably 30+ on some runs. Spencers Creek: 20cm
IMO

Infortunately, it looks like all of the cold air has been stalled over SA and the Alps are getting smashed by the tropical moisture.

IMO, we will see some snow early in the weekend but the main band of moisture and the cold pool will arrive at different times meaning some low snow totals.

what is happening now is exactly as EC progged

Are people thinking fizzer now?

This system is panning out exactly as progged

Stay on topic. Predictions only.

The optimist in me can see a lot to keep me interested and excited about this system but I have gone conservative with my predictions simply because of the time of year and the multiple variables that need to come into line for this one to deliver in big snow totals.

I definitely like the actual MSLP showing that the trailing high has not ridged to the SE as quickly as forecast yesterday which meant the cold air injection has lasted longer allowing the cold pool to grow and remian a bit further south than I thought it would.

The WZ GFS for Friday also shows the cold pool hitting the Alps in conjunction with the Western edge of the tropical feed

See here http://ski.com.au/weather/cola/mslp/24.html

If this happens, we could well see some big totals tomorrow.

Timing is very important with this one so it is definitely worth watching tomorrow.