well i am convinced... This is on!

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Concur

My blog posts on weather are generally old news for this forum, but here it is in case someone finds it interesting: http://aussieskier.com/index.php/2012/05/weather-update-monday-may-21st-2012/

Given the current EC and GFS runs this system could be very deadly for Gippsland... never mind the snow, I'm seeing some serious flooding potential here. Many parts of the region are already mud.

Good point ice_man. 9am GFS centres the moisture more over the alps rather than over Gippsland. I'm still thinking 50-75mm is possible, especially with that SE aspect.
I'm trying to recall, didn't we have a similar system in early June a few years back (IIRC falls of 150mm in Gippsland)? There was severe flooding then. 2007 I think.

3pm GFS

I think some sneaky snow for Victoria wednesday night into thursday is on the cards...
Off the latest AXS-R charts
the cold air has penetrated much further than on GFS

Some MOAR predictions for cms for Perisher please

Would be appreciated IMO

If you keep writing moar i will consider it

Stay on topic.

BoM now have the low winding up off the Sth Coast as early as Fri night

22cms at top of Thredbo....as a prediction because this is what the thread is called. There is divergence as seen here and there amongst the various journeys into weather prediction for our snowy time of the year - on average. I would call this one a little ambivolent for a system where it could skirt.......hmmm, or dump.

IMO the system looks better on GFS this afternoon. Freeze level perhaps 1400m.

Snow-forecast now have a total of 1cm for this system. How on earth do they go from 11cms in the morning to 1cm now. I suggest they are just a little wired.... and I ask how good are all these computer models if forecasting is so all over the place and often incorrect. I'll stick with more than snow-forecast!

IMO I like GFS this afternoon.





Still looks wet for the Friday though.

I think this is looking better and better
I'll take axs-r begiinning and gsf end please

and that will be EC

IMO EC looks colder than this morning, but not as much precip.





yr.no confirms the above update 20cm for Hotham and 25cm for Thredbo.

It looks as if as the inland low deepens and drops thru NSW, it will be fed some nice southerlies from the traling high. IMO, if the cold ppol associated with the low hangs tough and gets some help from a new injection of coldish air from the south, well geez, we all know what happens with deep lows, solid moisture and cold air.....Friday could be the bomb. Mid week next week could be interesting going of weather channel's (BOM) progged temps and precip.....

Any snow in the 3rd week of May is a bonus anyways...... If we get a few crisp nights after some flakeage, the guns will blaze and the base buliding will continue, so all positves really aye??

SB, not if it washes it away with a follow up ECL

Pretty much everything is predicting a cold ending to the system IMO, so unless the snow is washed away literally as it falls, it should stay around as it freezes solid under the big high that follows. Hopefully there is enough of it to make it season opening though.

I if this holds out I wool be up there on the 27th

Imho

EC looking nice, 00z GFS looking epic in the tail end with 850 temps around -4... all starting to come good now.

Today's progression of sat loops has shown a LOT of promise with the incoming fronts from the Southern Ocean. I've noticed over the years that the first in a series of fronts always dips away (heads SE) the second generally gets more penetration in to the Alps areas and the 3rd (and subsequent, if we're lucky) fronts smack right in to the Alps.

Tonights sat loop (11pm) appears promising; the synoptic chart is damn near perfect, with a strong 1030 H cell well west of WA but shaped as a slanted ellipse rather than last year's bl00dy flat, heavily ridging types...and on the ABC weather tonight, mention was made of a trough currently developing over central NSW which is timed to meet up with the incoming southern front.

So we have cold and moisture present, with the timing and alignment of the key players at this stage looking to meet.

But there is always the development of a H at the last minute to truly fark things up, as we have all seen many times.

If the current models are correct and the NSW BOM predicting likewise (for late this week), then surely we have to be looking at 15cm minimum out of this system?

I'm going for 15-20cm by Sunday night. IMO.

EC still on track with temps
GFS backed off and wetter

strange system

wandering cold pools...its like picking lotto

Concur Donza.
EC has held firm (only the amount of precipitation has varied) while GFS can't make it's mind up. IMO shaping up as a 1600m+ system.

we have some weather coming thats for sure...
NSW BOM say

Friday 25 May

Cloudy. Scattered showers. Scattered snow showers about the ranges above 1500 metres. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h turning west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

GFS back to a Gippsland killer. IMO

Weatherchaser GFS snow forecast has for Hotham/Falls

Thu 24/05/2012 26mm rain Min 4, Max 5 2500m
Fri 25/05/2012 54mm rain, 2cm Snow Min -2, Max 6 1550m
Sat 26/05/2012 8mm rain, 8cm Snow Min -2, Max 2 1550m
Sun 27/05/2012 13cm Snow Min -8, Max -2 700m

I believe this is for last nights 9pm GFS run.

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/forecasts/alpine-snow/mt-hotham-falls-creek

I'd agree with that. I reckon rain on Fri/Sat for Victoria, with snow on Sunday/Monday.

NSW may get away with it and get more white stuff than wet stuff.