Ok. This system has been showing up as a possible for a while now.
Both GFS and EC now seem on board, IMO

It's an odd system


This wouldn't normally look like snow or cold enough.
But it is, according to GFS



EC


YN showing 20cm+ for Hotham on the 4th.

I still have major concerns about the temps, but I think it's worth keeping a close eye on.

It's worth looking at for the potential for flooding again... temps looking marginal again... I'll have to get back to you on that one.

3pm EC has backed away from the moisture levels. Still going to be cold for a few days, with some snow showers though, IMO

I'm seeing the cold air arriving well behind the bulk of the moisture. Then a series of ECLs or cutoffs that hang around for quite a few days, East Gippsland could receive quite a substaintial amount of rainfall.

Perhaps we can move the back end of these dates out a bit as it looks like the rain will pound E Gippsland until the 7-8th?

Not entirely related but looking at the southern hemisphere pressure charts, the strongest high between us and South America heading west is just 1024. There is a large system below South Africa with just a weak area of high pressure above and another large system just west of South America with a weakish 1020 high above. Of course they will eb and flow and strengthen over time one would think but the lack of distinct, strong highs and continuing movement northwards to the typical winter lattitudes is certainly promising IMO.

3pm GFS run





IMO still enough for a dusting on the peaks.

Latest BOM Forecast NSW


Wednesday 2 May

Cloudy. Areas of rain about the ranges, extending throughout from the morning, falling as snow about the ranges above 1500 metres late in the evening. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 30 km/h tending south to southwesterly up to 25 km/h by early evening.
Chance of snow 20% at 1800m Below 5% at 1400m 0% at 1000m

Thursday 3 May

Cloudy. Patchy rain early in the morning. Patchy snow about the ranges above 1700 metres early in the morning. Winds west to southwesterly and light increasing to 15 to 25 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening.
Chance of snow 50% at 1800m Below 5% at 1400m 0% at 1000m

This looks OK for up to 5cms/dustings on the peak on tonights runs.

Yeh not much more.

Cold pool is hanging around for longer than before.

stoopid high pressure system extending way south into antartic waters - sooner that is gone the better IMO.

A high well south in Antarctic waters can be a good thing, a very good thing. Just not the positioning of this one at the moment.

Damn straight, a NE/SW oblong high south of Perth will line up the conveyor belt of systems one after another, providing it corresponds with a complex low with heaps of embedded fronts. When you think about it, it's weird how we can get snow in so many different set ups, keeps it interesting on the forecast side of it all.......cut-offs, cold pools, upper troughs, outbreaks, NW moisture feeds, antarctic fetches, you are all our children and we love you

The ground cooling continues. Anyone looked long term at second half of May yet? If we keep getting dustings, the snowmakers will be stoked. Remember last season when perisher went nuts early when it went all cold and dry with those big old highs. Weather seems to be typical for this time of year, big change towards winter pattern around Anzac day then consistent sprinkles and slow drop in temps. Windy as hell in Essendon by the way. (New obs thread? :D)

LWT looks better in the 2nd half of May, but it's a long way out yet.

Agreed. That's when we want the winter engine to fire up anyways. A few more dustings then a solid dump and some super cold nights, blast the guns and away we go.

Still too early for that IMO. Late June i'll take that solid dump.

I like to see consistent sprinkles late May then perfect snowmaking highs for 2 weeks so they can plaster the groomers for the resort workers and die hards to play on, then nukage starting Thursday before opening weekend. 10-15cm every 3-4 days over first 4 weeks then let the big cut-offs roll in from mid July with the BIG dumpage for the purists Not much to ask for huh?

Snowfalls don't cool the ground...just saying

I think he was aware of that already.

last year Nik and I visited Perisher about 2 weeks before the season opened and Perisher had about 2ft deep of manmade on Front Valley

BOM forecasts have the "S" word

(Hotham / Falls / Buller)


Looks like they think it will clear later on Thursday.

Looking quite nice on the cams up at BB. Does anyone have any opinions as to whether the snow will continue into tomorrow?

IMO freeze level will rise, BOM have it at 1500m, so Baw Baw should see a little more tomorrow morning.
Might see a little more at Buller/Hotham/Falls (looks like they got some this afternoon too) but I don't think it will be much.

Might be worth a little trip in the morning for a look. I wonder if it will be cold enough for the snow to stick around for the day?

It might turn to rain later in the day. If that's correct it wont hang around. But if it clears, then it should do.

I understand strider's interest; how much snow is there at BB? How much will there be in the morning? These issues should probably be addressed in "Obs. thread" but if you're there, Charlie, some of us would like to know!

ChrisCross I will let you know what BawBaw is like tomorrow if I'm up there, assuming conditions are favourable to make the trip. May even post some pics.

-StriderCDH AKA Chris

there's approx. 5cm on my deck, but softening, if we get more overnight it could maybe worth a trip.

No more snow overnight!