morning GFS run, only saving grace it's it looks a bit further south than before.

Looking at the 9am GFS run there are two major events here. One Monday through Wednesday, and another late Thursday / Friday. Could be really nasty as there are massive quantities of water, and the second event will be on top of already saturated soil, IMO

+1 CC. Hoping for the SE and Inland NSW's sake that this one does not come off as progged. GFS has been pretty adamant for a few days now though so its looking quite likely, i dont think i have ever seen a chart that comes close to the area and forecast amounts of rainfall in the SE. Wonder if the BOM will issue any flood watch advices for NSW. VIC BOM have already issued some for West and South gippsland.

Victorian BOM has issued flood watches across the board.

Those rainfall totals falling in the western area of NSW would really exacerbate the existing flooding on the Darling. On the slopes and plains hings could get interesting in the lachlan, macquarie and murrumbidgee. A good one to watch.

Let's hope the 12z GFS run is incorrect.

BOM expected rainfall for the week.



Spells trouble whichever way you look at it.

Biggest falls have shifted further south in recent forecasts. Now looks like a Murray-Murrumbidgee event. And some good potential for Sydneys water supply dams to reach 100%.

Latest EC http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/animate/c...2012300!!!step/

Wow. Maybe a little bit further north than the latest GFS?

Seriously NSW BOM need to start posting some flood watch advice bulletins, this event has already begun in the far west and NE SA. Further to that both Vic and SA BOM have the foresight to release some flood watch bulletins. NSW BOM are generally fairly proactive with these sort of things IMO.

they are on to it now.

Interestingy they have a flood warning for the Nepean. Haven't seen one of those for a long while. A few out in western Sydney may get a surprise when they realise the Nepean actually floods. Plenty of new suburbs have been built out there since the last major flood.

Impressive - seems to show that NSW will be under a fairly constant rainfall stream for 10 days. A massive amount of moisture coming down from tropical areas.

hey CC. Where do you find those fancy GFS plots?

Brisbane Storm Chaser site

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?region=nsw&start=1&stop=8&gribdate=2012022618

Under forecasts, then accumulated precipitation on the home page: http://www.bsch.au.com/index.shtml

Whoo-ha, look at the 3pm run

Weather on-line also shows the same accumulated rainfall chart - just not as pretty or flexible in assigning date ranges.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

the nepean was up the other week so it is primed. if the dams begins spilling and you get one or more of the major downstream tribs well up then things could get interesting....

sorry. link is on bottom right. Must open eyes in future.

Still the 18z I think CC. My work is within a stones throw of the Nepean in Penrith so will be watching this one really closely.

and burrugarang at close to 90%. didn't realise it was that high.

You're right - must have been a glitch, I'm certain it was showing 00z run, but it's not now. Perhaps I was the glitch ....

00z GFS run now up.

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?region=nsw&start=1&stop=8&gribdate=2012022700

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?region=nsw&start=1&stop=4&gribdate=2012022712

if anything the models have intensified for thursday and slightly concentred over the SE

EC's take on things for Canberra from Wednesday onwards (there should be a fair bit of rain today too)

new flood watch as at 1004 EDT has editted minor- moderate for the HN to moderate otherwise couldn't pick up any other change.

Hmmm reckon a few business on castlereagh road will be getting a little worried if both avon and warragamba go over.

Latest gfs has shifted things about 50ks north. Other than that its almost a carbon copy of the 12z run.

i am very surprised about the watch for Murrumbidgee. IF GFS is anywhere near correct then you'd have to think it will be major along the Murrumbidgee. I'd be guessing close to record levels. I guess they don't want to be alarmist. There is some buffer in dams (all about 80%) but not much and Blowering and Burrinjuck don't have any flood mitigation capacity (ie. cannot go above 100%).

The murray doesn't get a mention but with predictions in the mountains you'd have to be thinking its up for a major flood also. The inputs from VIC alone from the last 24 hours will be pretty decent.

Wagga and environs getting heavy falls now according to the radar.

As a kid on the Nepean i remember when we had floods almost annually. I recall them being Spring/Autumn events, and they would block the lower entrance to Camden as the bridge there went under, meaning traffic chaos on the Macarthur bridge, and the dream of school being shut until it subsided.

Re Burragorang, is it actually at 90%? I make it a bit lower than that, with Nepean/Avon being chockers, giving us a cumulative for the Sydney catchments of around 87%:
http://www.iliveinsydney.com/water/damstats.php

Still, more than capable of filling up if the predictions for the next week come true.

Also, BOM has issued a severe warning a few mins ago:

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/severe.shtml

SCA site says 88%. Here:

http://www.sca.nsw.gov.au/dams-and-water/weekly-storage-and-supply-reports/2014/23-february-2012

scary totals in the latest GCF runs - up to 700mm (seven hundred mm) forecast for just WSW of Canberrra (over 8 days)!!!

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?region=sydney&start=1&stop=8&gribdate=2012022718

On the basis of those figures I think that Canberra and Queanbeyan are in for serious flooding. All the dams are full and with 600mm in the upper catchment of the Molonglo and Queanbeyan rivers there's going to be a lot of water go over the Googong Dam spillway.

3pm GFS run virtually unchanged from the previous few runs. Hard to see it changing now.