BOM seems to be somewhere in the middle.
They aren't expecting the same quantities as GFS, more in the region of 50 to 100mm.

It's the global warming and permanent drought in Australia that's causing it all

Driest January in 2 years for Melbourne

Been a bit dud in Dubbo so far. We've had about 30mm over the last 5 days which is well below forecast totals. We are suppossed to do a bit better over the next few days. Lawn is going crazy. I mowed yesterday and it's already grown an inch.

that's not a bad thing.

still looking north

yes, GFS back to tracking in a line from Armidale to Newcastle.
BOM has also accordingly updated their track, and increased predictions.

Namoi and Gwydir look interesting going by this mornings radar.

Coffs had 156mm since 9am. Seems there's a fair bit to come.

Latest GFS plot for next 96 hours



And BOM for same period

Moree is in big trouble if that is accurate. Its funneling into the Nandewar Range (Mt Kaputar) and dropping into the Horton River catchment then on to Gwydir.

yeah just checked BOM update and they are farked. BOM going for majr flood levels now and more rain falling in the Horton. Horton is particularly bad because it comes Fom 1000-1500m range to the plains (200m) over a short distance and there's no major storage between it and the Gwydir so no mitigation at all. Namoi looking interesting also.

Current BOM warning for the Gwydir states peak of 15m at Gravesend around midday and the river was at 15.8m at 9am and rising. Warning also saying peak at Moree of 10.3m but going by Gravesend heights there is more water than they thought so i have a feeling its going to be a disaster at Moree.

Looks like it's pretty serious for the Namoi also. And Condamine Balonne in southern QLD also. Another big event for the Darling just a month or two after the last one.

yes, there a fair bit to come yet. GFS still has large falls forecast for the area between Coonabarabran, Newcastle and Mudgee. Also around St George in southern QLD could be in for seriously large falls.

today looks like most of the heavy stuff is below Moree so not compounding yesterdays falls. Peel at Tamworth on the rise this morning . Namoi river also lifting in places. Narrabri ck at narrabri reaching moderate flood levels.

today



not my photo.

ooops

ignorant journos. They really are dumb arses.

When i lived in Moree a few years back i was in a high part of town but i think our old place will have water lapping at the door tomorrow morning. Feel sorry for all the poor people in town that live in the low lying areas. They are the people that can least afford to lose stuff and probably the worst equipped to prepare. Then there's the damage to the golf course.

Good to see ABC news showing footgae of north coast floods in the story on Moree floods.

At 7.00am river was at 10.6m. Supposed to go a little higher than predicted now and getting close to 1955 flood.

GFS going for a drier spell for the next 7 days which is just as well.
BOM is showing a still a bit of rain for QLD, but at least there's nothing massive showing up

Not NSW but the flooding at St George is huge. To exceed the previous record by 0.6m is a massive increase in the total flow involved with the flood. Thats 0.6m of water over a very wide area. Un believeable.

A while back i was able to download rating charts (height vs flow) for gauging stations but now i can't find it on the BOM site. Anyone know how i can find them?

some modis imagery here
http://aerometrex.com.au/blog/?p=289

Looks like more rain over the next few days.



I assume the ground will already be very damp so this will run off quickly.

MODIS imagery from this week..
http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/individual.php?db_date=2012-02-22

makesure you rollover the image

wow.
Could be southern / central NSW turn next week.

they are big floodfronts in what I guess are the paroo and warrego and they look like they will pulse down the darling behind this current lot.

and I suspect some of the "bare earth" is silt drop.

tonights GFS is bad for western NSW. like previous events looks like heaps of moisture on the way. We'll find out where it hits in a few days time i guess. I'm on the gold coast at the moment and its pissing down and feral here.

Yeh, see the summer weather thread. Going to need some arks, lots of them.