La Niņa shows some weakening
Issued on Wednesday 18 January | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
While La Niņa conditions clearly remain, some indicators have weakened over the past fortnight. Similarly, the majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest a gradual decline of the current La Niņa, with most models suggesting an end of the event during the coming autumn season.
Over the past fortnight, atmospheric indicators of La Niņa, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloudiness over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have shifted towards more neutral values, implying some weakening of the La Niņa event. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific has also warmed slightly from their December lows.
La Niņa periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall and below normal daytime temperatures from winter through summer across eastern and northern Australia. Tropical cyclone risk is increased for northern Australia during the cyclone season (November to April), peaking in February and March. For detailed rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone outlooks, please see: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.