Been lots of rain falling around central NSW for the past 3 days with a fasir bit more predicted over the next 2-3 days. I've been out and about and creeks are still dry but you would have to think we don't need a whole lot more to lube things up and get some flow again.

The worst of the rain appears to be hitting on the plains around Moree which is probbaly a good outcome in terms of flooding. If that lot had have hit the tablelands there would be some decent flooding in the MacIntyre. Copeton is still only 55% so bit of a buffer in the Gwydir.

Been hosing down in Dubbo for the last 2 hours. Poor buggers growing cereal crops have been screwed again. Cropping is a mugs game.

Plenty to some, sadly.

Another interesting night out west. Just about everywhere on the western side of the range picked up 50mm odd out of the last few days. That will just about stuff any of the wheat in NSW due for harvesting around now. Poor buggers get skunkered again.

Big falls around Moree (moree got 109mm yesterday alone) and in excess of 200mm over the last few days. There is major flooding just upstream of Moree so will be interesting to see what happens in town there. Its a bit of a weird setup with a weir upstream that diverts water to the Gwydir proper and the Mehi (an anabranch) that runs through town. In any case it will be a good result for the Gwydir wetlands and delta, which missed out on last years flooding. Big 4 day totals up in the headwaters of the Gwydir also but luckily Copeton is only 60% full so has plenty of buffering capacity. Good news up there as Copeton was one of the only major storages to miss out on filling last year.

Surprisingly not much happening in other rivers. Some minor flooding in the Macintyre and Namoi systems. I thought the Macquarie may have done a little better. Dubbo has had over 100mm for the past 4 days as to have bathurst and orange and mudgee area but river heights all pretty low.

Gets interesting again mid to late next week with some more sidespread rain along the ranges and even a chance of snow in the mountains.

Latest update on Gwydir has major flooding for Moree. Hope they don't cop it too badly.

Major Flood peak expected in Moree around midday today.

Copeton dam up to 75% and filling quickly.

ABC "journalists" seem shocked that a town could be flooded while the sun is out. They really are der.

Up to 10.2m at Moree and still rising slowly. I think thats about the point between minor damge and major damage to the town.

Some good footage showing the extent of flooding here:

http://media.theage.com.au/news/national-news/residents-leave-homes-as-water-rises-2801710.html

the current 192hr ACCESS and GFS charts showing some potential for some more heavy rain over NSW inland next weekend. ACCESS looks a bit biblical.

GFS



BOM - not so bad, more over QLD



Central QLD looks to be smashed on most models too.

Sunday 11 Dec is the apocoliptic day according to BOM. But at 192hr so ??

For what its worth, we've had fairly significant storms through Canberra today (BOM had a STW out too), one dumped between 25 and 30mm (average quality rain gauge in an ok site) including a fair bit of pea sized hail in about half an hour. It was some of the heaviest rain I've seen in a long time - also had some good winds too - don't have a reading for that but it was strong enough that I was worried about trees being uprooted. Other areas had a similar experience from different cells during the day too. The Canberra airport AWS got 10mm in 15 mins at about that time too.

Guess it contributes to the idea that the models can show that *something interesting* will happen at 100hrs+ with reasonable reliability, it just takes the intervening time to resolve exactly what it will be.

Current AXS 10 day charts have some serious rain happening inland NSW on 216hr and 240hr forecasts. Long way out but worth keeping an eye on.

charts have been choping and changing all week but both GFS and AXS seem tobe going for some reasonable inland rain in northern NSW and southern QLD late next week. GFS showing potential for some widespread heavy inland falls.

Not looking terrific for QLD or northern NSW.

Not looking great for smitty either
he is due to leave end of this week on a jet plane- from GC airport

northern tablelands getting serious rain atm according to the radar.

The North coast looks like it still has some fun ahead of it but on saturday it looks like we'll start seeing some flooding in Southern inland queensland and inland northern NSW. GFS has a small low bombing down from the tropics right through the guts. And then another one doing the same a couple of days later. AXS not so keen but then goes on to show more tropical moisture coming through QLD into NSW late next week.

The Darling looks like coping another major flood - on top of the current one which is peaking around Louth at the moment. And my guess is more inland flooding to Lake Eyre. Macintyre, Gwydir and Namoi looking like possibilities also.

La Niña shows some weakening

Issued on Wednesday 18 January | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

While La Niña conditions clearly remain, some indicators have weakened over the past fortnight. Similarly, the majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest a gradual decline of the current La Niña, with most models suggesting an end of the event during the coming autumn season.

Over the past fortnight, atmospheric indicators of La Niña, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloudiness over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have shifted towards more neutral values, implying some weakening of the La Niña event. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific has also warmed slightly from their December lows.

La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall and below normal daytime temperatures from winter through summer across eastern and northern Australia. Tropical cyclone risk is increased for northern Australia during the cyclone season (November to April), peaking in February and March. For detailed rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone outlooks, please see: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.

GFS doesn't look great for next week.

Pouring rain here in coolangatta. Nervous we won't be flying out today

I have a friend who is also stuck up there - in hippyland, NSW. She's due to start a new job on Monday (in Melbourne), so is pretty concerned about getting out.

I suspect the Hunter could get interesting, the Colo could attract a bit of action too.. the paddlers will be watching with interest

The Colo has come up, but I'm not sure if it will get nuts this time round. Will be interesting to watch though. Do you know what heights have been paddled in the past Majik? From Canoe ceek or upstream?

Don't need graphs to know it is pelting out of the sky up here. Sent home early from work due to road closures in areas that have not flooded before.

All next week raining as well according to all reports. What happened to summer ?

if what CC put up comes off that's a shed load of water for the upper catchment... no idea on heights... have heard the odd crazy story but nothing verifiable.. you could probably get a paddle in the macdonald too going of that map.

Not looking any better on the 9am GFS run.

pushed a bit more north though.

flows down the darling are getting silly. They are already very good. Now all upper feed rivers have more flood water coming down and if GFS scenario comes off there gut loads more on the way. Moree will be in trouble if GFS is accurate. Hoping somw of the rain makes it further south. Would be good to see the storages back up to 100% after they've lower during the irrigation season.

Latest GFS run has it centred on Sydney.



I guess that's a relief to the north coast.

AXS-R has it further north

id be suprised to see it come off like GFS has predicted