Well, there are a few certainties we can all cling to for the mean time. First, this really is only the second "real" complex low pressure system we have seen this winter so far to push up, and that in itself is a god damn tragedy!!! BUT, the good news is, being quite large and complex, the embedded cells and associated fronts have plenty of potential to unfold better than progged, due to the unpredictable nature of clusters of low pressure cells and cold pools within a large area of low pressure. Also, there should be quite reasonable amounts of moisture left lingering in the atmosphere from the double toughs and weak sat system, thus potentially being sucked into and used by each cell and progged to move thru Sun-Wed. AND, the cold pool the 850 charts have progged to spew up in a hurry early sunday morning, will in my view, drop the freezing level to around 700 metres at best, which will mean accumulation at the 1500-200m level should be rather rapid, given the snow should be quite dry, and persist for several days mind you. PLUS, in the wake of the intial LPS, I think air mass and fetch will be unstable enough to maintain decent accumulations into Monday and Monday night, with potentiial moisture feeds from the progged cut off just off the coast of Eden. SO, to summarise, we have plenty to be upbeat about, cause geez, its been a shite of season, and without snowmaking it could be the worst in years, but we have not seen a system thus yet that has the potential to deliver extended days of decent accumulation. best case senarios could surprise many, and I am feeling that the embedded cells are going to deliver more than expected. Sunday night will be dope in my view, and Wednesdays front just needs to peak at the right time before the trailing high does its thing, and we should see another 10-20cm. So keep the faith out there my friends, in a bleak season, we may look back to this coming week as on of the better snow weeks. Sad, I know, but I think its gunna puke hard at times and surprise lots.

IMO

I meant 1500-2000m level, sorry, coopers pale ale in one hand and typing fast don't really mix!

Quantitative rainfall Perisher Valley
Today (9 am/3 pm) 1
Tonight (3 pm/9 am) 3
Saturday (24 h from 9 am) 2
Sunday (24 h from 9 am) 4
@800-900metres forecast..

I like those digits
Range 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Precipitation (mm) <1 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-40 41-80 >80

This is all the NSW boms take

personally I think they might get a nice wee fall tonight at NSW... up high....

The alpine areas are looking at another 10mm+ of rain, before at least 20 to 30 cm of snow with the first strong front and then 10 to 15 cm with the second (at the moment).

Jane's Weather Blog

What IS interesting is that jetstream cloud pushing down from the NW. (it's to the west of the NSW/QLD trough)

It's possible it could feed additional moisture into the system after it's turned colder.

A few seem to be getting carried away and this only leads to disappointment later on.

IMO much much more than 5mm of rain

It's easy to ignore charts/snow levels/lines at 300 hours out!
It's easy to ignore charts/snow levels/lines at 180 hours out!

Not that easy to ignore at 120 hours out though, which is what we have now

If what is currently showing now (mostly rain) is still there at 48 hours out then the fat lady is starting to sing

This will go down as the one of the best falls in a long while IMO. I'm still calling 30+ for LM and Baw Baw by Monday. I'm gonna enjoy the blizzard on Sunday at LM, skiing is off so we booked again the following weekend. IMO Baw Baw and LM should have collected around 40cm by then.

From the observations thread: