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Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
#1043091 - 29/07/10 06:54 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: warrie]
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Squidly
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Global warming has been occuring since the last ice age warrie, more pronounced in the last 100 years it seems.
IMO I still think there will be some decent late season dumps, the weather will turn, if only for a few weeks.
Comparing one year to another is interesting, but they are independant and unrelated events, one cannot make many conclusions.
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#1043097 - 29/07/10 07:15 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: warrie]
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Sandy
Dark Sith Lord & Gold Skigie 2006
Old and Crusty ;)
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Tut tut Sandy, you are giving the punters the false impression that 2010 is on the up and up in the above graph when we all can read Snowy Hydro and see that it is going DOWN since 15th July. Alas no volcanoes to kill Philippinos but make 1992 a good season. If June 91 eruption of Mt Pinatubo how long did it take stratospheric aerosols to cross equator and affect 91 season. Saw Bishop's ring from PB in 92 to confirm aerosols in 92. And 1990 was good before any eruption.
Here is the current graph:
 It shows that both 1984 and 2010 had almost the identical cover TODAY. Both had ups and downs, including BOTH going down around the 15th July. I made no conclusive indication of how the season would turn out. My intention is to indicate that JUST BECAUSE the snow is low on the 29th of July of ANY YEAR, that doesn't mean that it will remain that way.
I don't know why you're talking about 1990 and 1992, as I never even mentioned those!!!!!
Also 84 and 91/92 all pre global warming. There's bushfires around Moscow this week- who'd have thought it.... W
However, this is the most absurd part.....
1984, and 1991/1992 were NOT "pre global warming"!!!!!!
The concentration of CO2 has risen 20% since 1960, and around 30% since 1900. The global temperature has risen by around 0.4 degrees since 1960, and around 0.6 degrees since around 1900. So if you say that the warming started AFTER 1992, that would be absurd.
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#1043105 - 29/07/10 07:31 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: PG]
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warrie
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PG - 90,91 and 92 were all years with a good peak depth IMO but ensued with worsening El Nino conditions. '81 was a ripper but on your graph it's barely a pimple of a La Nina. Clearly the SOI is not enough to predict snow seasons even in hindsight. Sandy, thanks for your updated graph. And who, really, was going on about global warming 20 years ago? Not too many methinks. But we're stuck with it now..... W Ps Squidly's last paragraph makes a lot of sense
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#1043137 - 29/07/10 08:38 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: warrie]
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PG
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As is often stated the biggest seasons are usually associated with neutral conditions (e.g '81).
'91 and '92 were seasons with massive global cooling called by Pinatubo.
warrie - James Hansen testified to US Congress in 1988 about the urgent dangers associated with AGW. It's been in the mainstream consciousness ever since.
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#1043190 - 29/07/10 09:50 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: PG]
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Sandy
Dark Sith Lord & Gold Skigie 2006
Old and Crusty ;)
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As is often stated the biggest seasons are usually associated with neutral conditions (e.g '81).
'91 and '92 were seasons with massive global cooling called by Pinatubo.
This aspect is not as clear cut as you might think.
If you take SOI, many (or even most) of the big seasons prior to around 1980 had SOI values which were NOT neutral, but mostly between +5 and +15. e.g.
year, Jun, Jul, Aug, max depth
1956, +12.3, +12.6, +11.0, 318cm 1960, -2.3, +4.8, +6.6, 293cm 1964, +7.4, +6.8, +14.3, 340cm 1968, +12.3, +7.4, +0.1, 307cm 1974, +2.6, +12.0, +6.6, 287cm 1981, +11.5, +9.4, +5.9, 367cm
After this period the pattern doesn't hold: 1990, +1.0, +5.5, -5.0, 293cm 1991, -5.5, -1.7, -7.6, 284cm 1992, -12.8, -6.9, +1.4, 316cm 2000, -5.5, -3.7, +5.3, 262cm
But what is clear is that for MOST seasons between 1954 and 1981 that had at least two months (out of Jun/Jul/Aug) with SOI values of between +5 and +15 were BIG seasons!!!!!
(and 1973 was an exception to this pattern of SOI)
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#1047447 - 03/08/10 06:23 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: Sandy]
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warrie
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65 cm since Sunday says Thredbo. Add that to a 35cm base, ignore melting and rain and the magic 1 metre mark has been reached - about 6 weeks later than what would have been liked. But that's all forgotten now... W
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#1047528 - 03/08/10 07:44 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: warrie]
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FourSquare04
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Ahhh warrie, Thredbo were claiming 1.1m of new snow this morning in their report....7 day snowfall is 110cm.
Taken from Twitter:
"A whopping 1.1m of snow (55cm last 24 hours) has fallen over the last 2 days. If you aren't here we highly recommend you make plans to be."
SC depth I dare say will be somewhere around the 1m mark now.
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#1047575 - 03/08/10 08:21 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: FourSquare04]
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Dacer
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is that possibly true? (1.1m of snow....its practically double everywhere else)
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#1049778 - 05/08/10 03:21 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: Dacer]
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BlueHue
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Thredbo usually does noticeably better from south easterly snowfalls like they had later Monday into Tuesday morning and also the official measurements are taken from the top of the mountain so I'm not surprised they reported more officially (not sure what location Perisher are using though). If you read the Thredbo reports the comments usually give an amount for mid mountain and the village as well. On the Monday afternoon report it was 70cm up top, 45cm mid and 20cm in the village whilst at the same time Perisher was reporting 60cm total for the storm. 1.1m against the 60-80cm from Charlottes and Perisher makes you wonder though but what would I know since I was not even there!
This weeks depth just appeared on Snowy Hydro website. 83cm and now a little above 2006 at the same time of year.
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#1049806 - 05/08/10 03:36 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: BlueHue]
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Gerg
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Worth a woohoo, surely:
Now looking for ~1.5m peak, which isn't terrible:
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#1049939 - 05/08/10 04:46 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: fdxrate]
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BlueHue
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I'd be very happy to see us get to 146cm. An increase in 60cm equals roughly another metre of snowfall which is not to shabby and would be a good result after the crappy June and July!
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#1056776 - 12/08/10 05:24 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: BlueHue]
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Gerg
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1.5 m here we come:
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#1056959 - 12/08/10 08:34 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: Gerg]
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warrie
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Hmm, so a 22 cm increase this week only puts the season max depth (SMD) prediction up by just 1 cm! At the moment 2010 is still ignominiously down in the bottom left with 1982 and 2006. A pity since this weeks low was a classic spiral cloud pattern but the tail lacked sting. The week ahead looks promising so we shall await the 19th's graphs.... W
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#1064130 - 19/08/10 04:09 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: warrie]
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shadow1
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118.1cm
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#1064136 - 19/08/10 04:15 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: shadow1]
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Sandy
Dark Sith Lord & Gold Skigie 2006
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It's still strangely similar to 1984.... that may change!!!! 
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#1064145 - 19/08/10 04:25 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: Sandy]
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BlueHue
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Looking at that chart lets hope it does not change!
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#1064158 - 19/08/10 04:33 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: BlueHue]
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Gerg
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Maybe, but a thin season sure does make for a sleepy weather forum. The peak projection has moved all of 1 cm in a fortnight ... like watching paint dry. Incidentally, 1984 plots where it does on the second graph because I interpolate the YTD peak depth. It comes out as 154 cm at 19 Aug.
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#1066498 - 22/08/10 12:11 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: Gerg]
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warrie
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Gerg, can you run that last comment past us again. Season max prediction is DOWN by 2 cm to 145, not 154. By the way, here comes another NW cloudband. Go La Nina!! Anecdotal evidence is that Melbourne racetracks haven't had this much wet weather for a decade and a half. MDB runoff is looking healthytoo.... W
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#1066561 - 22/08/10 01:40 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: warrie]
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FourSquare04
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Watch the Max depth hit close to 2m by the end of this week if the models continue the way they are looking at the moment!!!
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#1066732 - 22/08/10 05:31 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: warrie]
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Gerg
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5 August 146cm; 19 August 145cm ... and 2 m, well, could happen, but seriously unlikely.
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#1066991 - 22/08/10 10:56 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: Gerg]
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Snow Blowey
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I noticed a very large increase in snow depth between last tuesday and today. On tuesday we encountered a shinny ice layer in wind exposed areas. After 20-30cm of fresh (friday to saturday) that same ice layer was exposed. This means zero snow depth increase on wind exposed areas but large amounts of drifted snow on lee slopes. IMO spencers creek depth is over 150cm at present. More fresh dry snow falling on icy layer is going to mean larger drifts at the end of this week and i am very confident depths will get over 200cm.
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#1067044 - 23/08/10 07:34 am
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: Snow Blowey]
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choc
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Yeah, it's an interesting snowpack out there at the moment, it would almost be nice to see this next system come in a bit warmer and start with a few mil of rain to soften the ice and give the new snow something to stick to. Leeward slopes are drifting in huge though from those westerlies, and it looks like they're set to continue this week. Thredbo will be happy.
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#1070963 - 25/08/10 07:00 pm
Re: Season 2010 Snow Depth
[Re: choc]
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Gerg
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Wonder if we'll get a depth tomorrow, OH&S and all? Might make projection look a bit sick.
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